Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS THANKSGIVING WEEK 13 PREVIEW: SAINTS AT FALCONS
QB Report: Drew Brees
Brees completes 86% of attempts against the blitz (no other qualified QB is over 70% vs blitz)
> Brees targets an open receiver (3+ yards of separation) on 46% of attempts vs blitz (NFL Avg - 34%)
Completed more deep passes in Week 12 vs CAR (3) than in previous 5 games this season (2)
> Week 12 vs CAR: 3/7, 74 yards & TD on deep pass attempts (20-yard TD to Cook was first deep TD this season)
> Ted Ginn has accounted for 8 of Brees’ 14 deep pass attempts (57%), Michael Thomas has just 1 deep target (7%)
Brees & Michael Thomas rank among the best in several QB-WR duo metrics since 2016 (min. 100 tgts)
> +11.6% Catch Rate Above Expectation, 2nd in NFL (behind Sam Bradford-Adam Thielen, +16.4%)
> 69.0% Pass Success Rate, 1st in NFL (% of targets resulting in a successful play based on the yards to go by down)
> 265 receptions under 10 air yards, 1st in NFL (Only Tom Brady-James White, 225, have more than 200+)
2nd-highest Expected Comp Pct (68.7%) among QB (indicates Brees attempts high probability passes)
> Short Pass Attempts - Averages 6.6 air yards/attempt (4th-shortest among 34 qualified QB)
> Low Tight Window Pct - 10% of pass attempts target a receiver in a tight window (lowest in NFL)
> Targets Seams [between numbers and hashes] - 57% of pass attempts target the seams (2nd-highest in NFL)
Air yards/attempt has declined over the last 4 seasons - 2016: 7.6 | 2017: 6.3 | 2018: 7.1 | 2019: 6.6
Brees has been under pressure on 22% of dropbacks this season (6th-lowest in NFL)
> Low pressure rate correlated with 2nd-fastest time to throw (2.59 seconds) among qualified QB this season
> 1 of 2 qualified QB to be pressured less than 22% of dropbacks in each of the last 4 seasons (other: Rodgers)
Has used play action on 10% of pass attempts, lowest rate among qualified QB (next lowest: 14%)
> 2018 (last season): Brees used play action twice as often (20% of pass attempts)
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints Offense
The Saints have used 24 unique offensive groupings, most in the NFL (next closest: NE, 18)
> Have used the 3rd-highest rate of 6+ OL plays (97 plays, 14%), 103 plays with 2 QBs on-field (100 more than )
Alvin Kamara: 9.79 MPH at LOS on inside runs since 2018, 2nd-fastest among RBs (min. 60 inside carries)
> Reached 15+ MPH on 126 offensive touches since 2018, 2nd-most among RBs (Christian McCaffrey, 152)
Michael Thomas: Accounts for 33% of the team’s targets (1st in NFL) and 39% of air yards (5th)
> Only player in top 10 of air yards share who averages fewer than 11 air yards per target (Thomas: 7.7 air yards/tgt)
> Thomas has gained 622 receiving yards on short targets (0-9 air yards), 221 more than any other player
Taysom Hill: Usage on offense & special teams reduced when Hill assumed backup QB role in Week 3
> 28% of offensive snaps with Brees (Weeks 1-2), 15% with Bridgewater (Weeks 3-7), 15% with Brees (since Week 8)
> Hill was taken off the FG block unit at halftime in Week 2 (Brees injury), returned to FG/XP role in Week 10 vs ATL
> Was taken off punt return unit in Weeks 3-7 (returned to role in Week 8), remained on punt coverage all season
Terron Armstead: Brees is pressured on 23% of dropbacks without Armstead since 2018 (On: 18%)
> Armstead ON (504 pass plays): 18% pressure rate | Armstead OFF (221 pass plays): 23% pressure rate
> Armstead had played on 98% of offensive snaps entering Week 12 (left game vs CAR late in 1st qtr w/ankle injury)
Falcons Defense
Since Dan Quinn gave up play calling after the bye (Week 9), the defense has improved
> Wks 1-8: Used base personnel (4 DB) on 31% of plays (11th) | Wks 10-12: Used base on 22% of plays (12th)
> Wks 1-8: Used light box (6 or fewer defenders) on 39% of plays (31st) | Wks 10-12: 57% light box pct (19th)
The Falcons have blitzed less but gotten more pressure since the play calling change
> Wks 1-8: 30% blitz (13th), 19% pressure rate (32nd) | Wks 10-12: 14% blitz rate (30th), 32% pressure rate (7th)
Takkarist McKinley: 2.68 sec average time to QB hurry, 3rd-fastest in the NFL (min. 10 QB hurries)
Grady Jarrett: The Falcons have created only 1 sack on 89 pass plays (1.1%) without Jarrett on-field
> Jarrett ON-Field (302 pass plays): 17 sacks, 5.6% sack rate | Jarrett OFF-Field (89 pass plays): 1 sack, 1.1% sack rate
Vic Beasley: The Falcons have struggled without Beasley on-field (ON: 25% pressure rate | OFF: 18%)
Adrian Clayborn: 20 QB disruptions over the last three weeks (hurry, QBP or sack), most in the NFL
> Average time to QB Hurry: 2.63 seconds (fastest in the NFL, min. 10 QB hurries)
Desmond Trufant: Falcons have forced 8 INT with Trufant on-field (229 plays), 0 INT without (162 plays)
Keanu Neal: Falcons pass defense has struggled without Keanu Neal since 2016 (placed on IR Wk 3)
> ON-Field (1,276 pass plays): 89.9 passer rating allowed | OFF-Field (1017 pass plays): 103.2 passer rating allowed
QB Report: Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan
Ryan is 7th among all qualified QBs in Comp Pct Above Expectation (+1.9) this season
> 1 of 4 QBs who has exceeded expectations in each of the last 4 seasons (Others: Brees, Wilson, Prescott)
Has thrown as many INT on deep attempts this season (4) as the previous 3 seasons combined (4)
> 2019 (Deep): 2 TD & 4 INT (40.5% comp pct) | 2016-2018 (Deep): 23 TD & 4 INT (39.4% comp pct)
Since 2016, Ryan & Julio Jones have 41 deep receptions, most among all QB-WR duos in that span
Ryan is one of the most stationary quarterbacks in the NFL (5.2 distance/dropback, 5th-lowest in NFL)
> Attempts 92% of his passes from inside the tackle box, 4th-highest rate among qualified QBs
> When hurried, Ryan has evaded only 8% of QB pressures this season, 5th-lowest rate in NFL
Has been pressured on 34% of dropbacks this season (4th-highest), has been efficient when pressured
> Ryan: 60.7% comp pct (3rd in NFL), 8.4 yards/attempt (3rd), 40% pass success rate (1st)
Ryan has used less play action this season (20%) than across previous 3 seasons (2016-2018: 26%)
> Ryan throws considerably shorter by air yards on play action this season (9.7) than over previous 3 seasons (11.9)
> Since Week 1: Ryan has thrown 5 TD & 0 INT on play action, 11 TD & 8 INT on non-play action dropbacks
> Week 10 at NO: Ryan finished 1/5, -6 yards on play action in last meeting vs Saints
Matt Ryan vs Saints Defense
Last 7 Meetings vs NO (since 2016): Ryan has been under pressure on 53% of 3rd down dropbacks
> Saints Pressure Rate by Down (vs Ryan): 1st Down: 20% | 2nd Down: 26% | 3rd Down: 53%
> The Saints have blitzed Ryan on 44% of 3rd down plays (23% blitz rate on 1st down, 28% blitz rate on 2nd down)
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons Offense
Used 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TE) more in Weeks 11-12 (13 plays) than all other games combined (6)
> Injury to TE Austin Hooper has led to increase in 10 personnel in recent weeks
> Calvin Ridley has seen a boost in share of team air yards with Austin Hooper inactive (Wk 1-10: 26% | Wk 11-12: 39%)
Falcons run on just 18% of plays in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE), lowest run pct in the NFL
The Falcons face 2-high safeties on 32% of their plays this season, highest rate in the NFL
Brian Hill: Played on majority of Falcons snaps (60%) over last 2 games without Devonta Freeman
> RB Playtime (Weeks 11 & 12): Brian Hill (60%), Qadree Ollison (22%), Keith Smith (19%), Kenjon Barner (18%)
> Run Play Pct by RB: Brian Hill (41% run), Qadree Ollison (42% run), Keith Smith (66% run), Kenjon Barner (13% run)
Julio Jones: 11.4 yards per target vs press coverage since 2016, best in the NFL (min. 75 press targets)
> NO Defense: Pressed Jones on 40% of his targets since 2016 (all other opponents press Jones on 35% of targets)
Calvin Ridley: Targeted further downfield this season (13.7 air yards/target) than last season (10.0)
> Comp Pct above Expectation on downfield passes (10+ air yards): +9.8% (2018: -2.6%)
Austin Hooper: Falcons receivers average 3.6 yards of target separation w/Hooper on-field (Off: 2.8)
> Matt Ryan’s comp pct increases from 60.0% without Hooper (120 att) to 70.0% comp pct with Hooper (277 att)
Saints Defense
The Saints team pressure rate has declined in recent weeks (Week 1-6: 35% | Week 7-12: 22%)
> Opponents quicker snap to pass: Wks 1-6: 2.97s time to throw (2nd-longest) | Wks 7-11: 2.73s time to throw (21st)
The Saints are the only defense in the NFL to align with 2-high safeties on over 40% of plays (44%)
The Saints use 5+ DB on 85% of defensive plays this season, 4th-highest rate in the NFL
Cameron Jordan: Has played on 89% of defensive snaps this season (highest playtime % among DL)
Marshon Lattimore: Aligned against Julio Jones on 10 of Jones’ 17 routes in first half of Week 10
> Jones: 0 rec on 1 target when aligned against Lattimore in Week 10 (8 targets, 3 rec, 79 yards on other 22 routes)
> Lattimore: shadowed Jones in Week 14, 2017 (69% of routes), Week 16, 2017 (75%), Week 3, 2018 (53%)
Eli Apple: Aligned vs Julio Jones in Wk 12, 2018 matchup on 85% of routes (12 tgts, 10 rec, 134 yards)
Marcus Williams: 2nd in the NFL in passes defended rate this season (41%), min. 20 targets
Vonn Bell: The Saints generate significantly more pressure when Bell blitzes (Blitz: 41% | No Blitz: 27%)
> Created QB pressure on 26% of blitzes (7/27), the highest rate in the NFL (min. 25 blitzes)
