Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 15 SNF PREVIEW (NBC): BILLS AT STEELERS
QB Report: Josh Allen
22.7% career comp pct on deep pass attempts (since 2018) ranks 28th out of 29 QBs (min. 50 deep att)
> Career: Allen has completed only 3 “DIME” completions in his career (30+ air distance & tight window)
> Devlin Hodges: Has thrown 2 “DIME” completions this season (on 645 fewer pass attempts than Allen)
Increased his rate of quick throws (<2.50 sec) this season by +7% points (2018: 33% | 2019: 40%)
Struggled with INTs against the blitz early in his career, 8 TD, 0 INT vs blitz over his last 9 games
> First 16 Career Games: 48.3% comp pct, 6.3 yards/attempt, 3 TD, 8 INT (53.1 passer rating) vs blitz
> Last 9 Games (since Week 5): 50.5% comp pct, 6.4 yards/attempt, 8 TD, 0 INT (97.4 passer rating) vs blitz
> PIT Defense: Tendency to blitz more on 1st down (42%) & 2nd down (39%) than 3rd down (19%) this season
Allen has been more effective under pressure this season (44% comp pct) than 2018 (30% comp pct)
Allen has thrown quicker, shorter passes this season after leading the NFL in air yards/att as a rookie
> 2019: 2.88 average time to throw (7th), 9.1 air yards/attempt (6th), 13% deep pass pct (8th)
> 2018: 3.22 average time to throw (longest among QB), 11.0 air yards/attempt (1st), 18% deep pass pct (1st)
> The biggest difference in time to throw comes on 1st down (2019: 2.78 sec | 2018: 3.25 sec)
In 2018, Allen ranked among the top 2 QB in % of att outside the box and % of att on the run (both 22%)
> 2019: Allen ranks 4th in % of attempts outside the box and 6th in “on the run” (both 18%)
Tendency to throw deeper when outside the tackle box (11.9 air yards/att) than inside (8.7) this season
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bills Offense
Devin Singletary: Averages 6.4 yards per carry on outside rushes, highest among RBs (min. 60 carries)
> Has gained 10+ yards on 27% of his outside rushes this season, more than twice as often as league average (13%)
Frank Gore: North-South runner, average time to LOS (2.47 seconds) since 2016, lowest in the NFL
John Brown: Averages 13.7 air yards per target this season, 5th-deepest in NFL (min. 70 targets)
> Brown has been pressed on 42% of routes this season, 4th-highest rate in the NFL (min 70 targets)
> vs Press: 48 targets (25 receptions), 51.2% catch rate, -1.5% catch rate above expectation
> vs No Press: 53 targets (39 receptions), 73.6% catch rate, +11.3% catch rate above expectation
Cole Beasley: 3.5 avg separation when targeted short (0-9 air yds) from the slot (10+ air yds: 1.8 yds)
> NFL Avg: Slot WRs average 2.9 yards of separation on targets of 0-9 air yards, 2.4 yards on targets of 10+ air yards
Dawson Knox: Gains 1.9 yards after the catch above expectation, 4th among TE (min. 40 targets)
> Big play threat - Knox averages 14.0 yards per reception from tight alignment, 5th among TE (min. 20 tight tgts)
Steelers Defense
T.J. Watt: Fastest pass rush get-off (0.76 seconds) among EDGE rushers (min. 200 pass rushes)
> Top 5 (EDGE Get Off): T.J. Watt (0.76 sec), Ryan Kerrigan, Derek Barnett, Joey Bosa, Dante Fowler all tied (0.77 sec)
> Watt: 3.2% sack rate (9th-highest in NFL, min. 200 pass rushes), 12.1% pressure rate (11th-highest)
Cameron Heyward: 36 QB pressures this season, 2nd-most among Interior DL (behind only Donald, 60)
> The Steelers create pressure from the interior on 17% of snaps, highest interior pressure rate in the NFL
Devin Bush: 39 defensive stops this season, 2nd-most among all rookies (Cole Holcomb, WAS)
Joe Haden: Allowed 32.7 passer rating as nearest defender since Week 9 (Weeks 1-8: 105.4)
> Haden leads the NFL in passes defended rate this season (22%) among DBs (min. 50 targets)
Minkah Fitzpatrick’s Impact on the Steelers Defense
The Steelers are Tied-1st in the NFL with 5 INT on deep targets since Week 3
> Weeks 1-2: 141.4 passer rating allowed (T-29th in NFL) | Weeks 3-14: 33.2 passer rating (best in NFL) on deep tgts
The Steelers have improved covering the slot since acquiring Fitpatrick in Week 3
> Weeks 1-2 (vs Slot): 26/31 (83.9% comp pct), 401 yards (12.9 yards/att), 4 TD, 0 INT (158.3 passer rating)
> Weeks 3-14 (vs Slot): 78/127 (61.4%), 846 yards (6.7 yards/att), 6 TD, 9 INT (67.2 passer rating)
> Cole Beasley: Aligns in the slot on 75% of offensive snaps (receiving TD from the slot in back-to-back games)
QB Report: Devlin Hodges
Hodges has completed +6.9% of his passes above expectation, 2nd-best in the NFL (min. 75 attempts)
> Hodge’s 3 most improbable completions were all to James Washington in Week 13 vs CLE
> Q2 (1:06): 30-yard TD (25.8% Completion Probability) | Q2 (6:53): 31 yards (27.3%) | Q3 (13:01): 44 yards (28.3%)
Hodges has gained 58% of passing yards from YAC, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (min. 75 attempts)
> Steelers as a team have relied on YAC over the last 2 seasons: 2019: 59% YAC (1st) | 2018: 58% YAC (1st)
Hodges ranks 2nd in passer rating (119.4) and YPA (9.6) on passes outside the numbers (min. 75 att)
Hodges has destroyed the blitz, completing 20/28 for 251 yards, 2 TD (122.8 passer rating)
> +16.1% completion percentage above expectation vs the blitz (best in NFL, min. 20 att vs the blitz)
Hodges averages 6.6 air yards/attempt, 42nd out of 45 QBs with at least 75 pass attempts
> Hodges has avoided throwing into tight windows (10%, lowest rate in NFL, min. 75 att)
Hodges has been pressured at the 5th-lowest rate (17%) in the NFL (min. 75 attempts)
> Mason Rudolph: 45% pressure rate (only qualified QB with a pressure rate over 37% this season)
Hodges throws behind the LOS (28%, highest in NFL) or deep (13%, 11th-highest), min. 75 attempts
> Throws short at the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL (39%) and to intermediate at lowest rate (11%, only player under 15%)
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Steelers Offense
James Conner: Opponents load the box almost twice as often when Conner is on the field
> Conner OFF-Field (218 rush plays): 17.0% Loaded Box | Conner ON-Field (114 rush plays): 29.8% Loaded Box
> Loaded Box - any instance where there are more defenders in the box than blockers in the box
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Avg separation at target has dropped since 2017 (2017: 3.0 | 2018: 2.7 | 2019: 2.4)
> Smith-Schuster aligns in the slot or tight (63%) more than wide (36%) this season (2018: 61% slot/tight, 39% wide)
> Will face CB Taron Johnson when aligned in the slot (4.5 yards of separation allowed, worst in the NFL, min 30 tgts)
Diontae Johnson: Open (3+ yards of separation) on 54% of targets, highest in the NFL (min. 60 targets)
James Washington: +20.4% Catch Rate Above Expectation since Week 9 (Highest in NFL, min. 20 targets)
> Since Week 9: Expected Catch Rate: 57.0% | Actual Catch Rate: 77.4% | Catch Rate Above Exp: +20.4%
Bills Defense
Jerry Hughes: Average time to QB hurry is 2.83 seconds, 4th-fastest in NFL (min. 300 pass rushes)
> Last 2 Seasons (since 2018): 96 QB pressures (6th-most among EDGE behind Garrett, Mack, Hunter, Smith & Watt)
> Hughes has seen a decline in pressure rate (2018: 16% | 2019: 12%) & run stuff rate (2018: 6% | 2019: 2%)
Shaq Lawson: Creates run stuff on 7.4% of run def snaps, highest rate in the NFL among EDGE
Ed Oliver: 4.8% sack rate since Week 11 (3rd-highest in NFL, min. 60 pass rushes)
> Generated pressure on 9.6% of pass rushes this season (7th-highest among interior DL, min. 200 pass rushes)
Lorenzo Alexander: Aligns at least 25% of snaps at EDGE (30%), DT (35%) and Linebacker (29%)
> 1 of 2 players to align 25%+ at EDGE, DT & LB, min. 50 snaps (Other: MIA DL/LB Sam Uguavoen)
> Alexander blitzes on 15% of pass plays when aligned at linebacker (85% coverage), 86% of plays at EDGE/DT
Matt Milano: 15 hustle stops this season, 2nd-most in the NFL (successful tackle & 20+ yds of distance)
Tre’Davious White: 43.1 passer rating allowed as nearest defender, 2nd-lowest in NFL (min. 50 tgts)
> 1 of 3 DBs to not allow a TD as nearest defender this season, min. 50 targets (Stephon Gilmore & Avonte Maddox)
> Allowed a 47.2% catch rate as the nearest defender, 3rd-lowest, min. 50 targets (Stephon Gilmore & Tre Herndon)
> White has lined up against opponents #1 WR on 75%+ of routes in 4 games of last 5 games this season
Taron Johnson: Allows 5.2 yards per target as nearest defender, 3rd-lowest among slot CB (min. 30 tgts)
> Johnson has 10 “hustle stops” this season, T-2nd-most in the NFL among defensive backs
Micah Hyde: Has not allowed a TD as the nearest defender despite low tight window rate in coverage
> 2019: Tight Window on 1 of 22 targets (5%), allowed 0 TD, 1 INT as nearest defender (9.2 yards/target)
> 2018: Tight Window on 11 of 30 targets (37%), allowed 6 TD, 2 INT as nearest defender (4.6 yards/target)
Bills employ 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on 70% of plays, 4th-highest rate in the NFL
Bills RBs run to the strong side on 63% of carries, 6th-highest in NFL (Strong: 4.8 YPC | Weak: 4.1 YPC)
> Devin Singletary: Averages 2.1 yards before close-in on strong side runs, most among RB (min. 25 strong runs)
The Steelers employ light boxes (6 or fewer defenders) on 64% of run plays faced (highest rate in NFL)
> PIT in light boxes: allow 4.1 yards per rush (6th-lowest in NFL), 9% of rushes to gain 10+ yards (3rd-lowest in NFL)
> Devin Singletary: Faces light box on 65% of carries, highest in NFL (min. 100 rushes), 6.1 YPC vs light box (3rd in NFL)
Steelers Blitz Rate by Down: 1st Down: 42% (2nd), 2nd Down: 39% (3rd), 3rd Down: 19% (31st)
> PIT opponents average 2.64 seconds to throw, 3rd-fastest in the NFL
- The Bills use Nickel (5 DB) grouping on 76% of defensive plays this season, 4th-highest rate in the NFL
> Allow 5.0 yards per play in Nickel this season, 5th-lowest in the NFL
- The Bills create a QB disruption (pressure, hurry, or sack) on 40% of blitzes, 3rd-highest rate in the NFL
> When Blitzing (5+ pass rushers): Allow 2.5 yards of target separation, 2nd-least in the NFL (NE, 2.3 yards)
