Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 16 SNF PREVIEW (NBC): CHIEFS AT BEARS
QB Report: Patrick Mahomes
27 deep completions (T-2nd), 937 deep yards (4th), 11 deep TD (1st), despite missing 2 games
> 2019: Throws deep on 15% of attempts this season, 3rd-highest among QB (behind Wilson 17% & Stafford 16%)
> Mahomes has improved deep completion pct (2018: 39.8% | 2019: 43.5%), fewer deep INT (2018: 6 | 2019: 2)
Mahomes has spread the ball around to different receivers on deep attempts this season
> 2019: 6 different receivers have 5+ deep targets (Robinson 13, Kelce 12, Hill 11, Hardman 8, Watskins 8, Pringle 5)
> 2018: Tyreek Hill accounted for more than half of Mahomes’ deep completions (Hill: 18 receptions | All Others: 17)
> Mahomes & Hill Deep Passing by Season - 2018: 18/42, 714 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT | 2019: 4/11, 147 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Passing efficiency “on the run” (8+ MPH) has declined this season (compared to 2018)
> 2018 (On the Run): 68/124 (54.8%), 7.6 YPA, 14 TD, 3 INT, 107.1 passer rating (+4.2% Comp Above Expectation)
> 2019 (On the Run): 37/74 (50.0%), 6.0 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 76.6 passer rating (-6.8% Comp Below Expectation)
> Mahomes has thrown “on the run” slightly less often this season (17%) compared to 2018 (21%)
More efficient targeting receivers between the numbers than outside the numbers this season
> Between Numbers: 178/229 (77.7%), 10.1 YPA, 12 TD, 2 INT, 122.4 passer rating (+6.1% Above Expectation)
> Outside Numbers: 102/186 (54.8%), 7.0 YPA, 11 TD, 2 INT, 92.2 passer rating (-7.9% Comp Below Expectation)
Travis Kelce has been Mahomes’ most reliable receiver when targeted between the numbers
> Mahomes & Kelce (Between Numbers): 68 targets, 58 receptions, 1 TD, 0 INT (85.3% comp pct, 74% success rate)
> Week 15 vs DEN: Mahomes & Kelce combined for 10/11, 121 yards between numbers (10 of Kelce’s 11 receptions)
15 of 17 career INT have come against 4-or-fewer pass rushers (No Blitz: 54 TD, 15 INT | Blitz: 19 TD, 2 INT)
> CHI Defense: 32% 3rd down blitz rate (17th-highest), 40% 3rd down pressure rate when blitzing (No Blitz: 24% QBP)
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Chiefs Offense
LeSean McCoy: More productive on outside carries (5.4 YPC) than inside carries (3.7 YPC) this season
> CHI Defense: Allow 4.0 YPC on outside runs this season (4th in NFL), allow 2.3 YPC when Akiem Hicks is on the field
Tyreek Hill: 21 plays reaching 20+ MPH as a ball carrier since 2018 (10 more than next closest, C. Patterson)
> Career (Ranks since 2016): 43 deep receptions (T-2rd in NFL), 1,799 deep receiving yards (1st), 18 deep TD (2nd)
Mecole Hardman: “Open” (3+ yards of separation) on 63% of targets, highest in the NFL
> Averages 4.1 yards of separation per target this season, most in the NFL (min 40 targets)
Travis Kelce: Most receptions (65) and yards (7929) among TE from detached alignment (slot or wide)
> Kelce has 342 routes from detached alignments (slot or wide), the most among all TEs
> Since 2016: 2nd in the NFL in yards after catch (2,107) behind only Christian McCaffrey (2,353)
Bears Defense
Khalil Mack: Created 8 turnovers from pressure since 2018, Most in the NFL
> Pressure rate increases significantly by down (since 2018) - 1st: 9.5% | 2nd: 13.9% | 3rd: 15.8%
> Since 2018: 19.2% pressure rate on 3rd down from EDGE alignment, 4th-highest in NFL (min. 100 pass rushes)
Danny Trevathan: The Bears blitz has been less effective without Trevathan on the field this season
> ON (85 blitzes): 34% team pressure rate (26% blitz rate) | OFF (53 blitzes): 25% team pressure rate (23% blitz rate)
Bears DBs Kyle Fuller, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix & Eddie Jackson have missed a combined 15 defensive snaps
> DB Snap Counts (out of 904 plays): K. Fuller (903), H. Clinton-Dix (900), E. Jackson (894), P. Amukamara (795)
> Prince Amukamara: Entering Week 14, had played 99% of plays when active (missed Week 14, 48% in Week 15)
Prince Amukamara: 45.8% catch rate allowed in press (74.3% catch rate when cushion 3+ yds)
> Amukamara forces a tight window on 42% of targets in press (11% of targets when cushion 3+ yards)
Eddie Jackson: 47.7 passer rating as nearest defender, 3rd-best among safeties (min. 30 targets)
> Jackson has yet to allow a TD as the nearest defender this season (39 targets, 18 rec allowed, 167 yards, INT)
Akiem Hicks’ Impact on Bears Defense
When Akiem Hicks has been on the field, the Bears allows 2.5 YPC vs RBs (3.9 YPC without Hicks)
> The Bears have allowed only 1 run of 10+ yards by a RB on 56 carries with Hicks on the field (2% of runs gain 10+)
Hicks has made the biggest impact against 2nd down runs over the last 2 seasons (15% run stop rate)
> Run Stop Rate by Down - 1stD: 13 stops (8% run stop) | 2ndD: 18 stops (15% run stop) | 3rdD: 5 stops (14% run stop)
The Bears generate pressure on 31% of dropbacks with Hicks on-field since 2018 (23% without Hicks)
QB Report: Mitchell Trubisky
(Last Week at GB) Efficient on quick throws, struggled when holding for longer than 4 seconds
> Quick (<2.50 sec): 11/18, 67 yards, TD | Extended (4.0+ sec): 2/8, 46 yards, INT
> Trubisky was pressured on 22 of 56 dropbacks (39% pressure rate)
Minimal success on deep pass attempts (20+ air yds) with the exception of two matchups vs DET
> vs DET (Week 10 & 13): 5/6, 142 yards (23.7 YPA), 2 TD, 0 INT | All Others: 13/44, 409 yards (9.3 YPA), 2 TD, 4 INT
Trubisky has thrown into a tight window on 20%+ of attempts in 5 straight games (22% since Week 11)
> Weeks 1-10: 15% tight window throw pct | 11-36, 155 yards, INT on tight window throws (33.9 passer rating)
> Weeks 11-15: 22% tight window throw pct | 13-45, 176 yards, 3 TD on tight window throws (65.6 passer rating)
Trubisky has 4+ non-kneel rushes in 3 of the past 4 games (no such games in first 7 games)
> Weeks 12-15 (4 games): 20 rushes, 6.0 YPC, 11 rushes reaching 15+ MPH (55%), excluding kneels
> Weeks 1-11 (7 games): 14 rushes, 4.2 YPC, 5 rushes reaching 15+ MPH (36%), excluding kneels
Trubisky Best Outside the Pocket, On the Move, & One Read Throws
Matt Nagy has set up Trubisky for red zone success with quick, one-read throws since 2018
> 11 of Trubisky’s 35 red zone TD passes have < 2 seconds time to throw (34%, 3rd-highest, min. 10 red zone TDs)
When holding onto the ball for 2.5+ seconds, Trubisky is less turnover prone outside the tackle box
> OUTSIDE TACKLE BOX: 2.6% INT rate, 16% pressure rate | INSIDE TACKLE BOX: 3.9% INT rate, 28% pressure rate
Bears are 11-1 (.917) under Nagy where Trubisky attempts 15%+ of his passes “On the Run” (8+ MPH)
> Less than 8 MPH: 489/743, 5237 yards, 30 TD, 20 INT, 88.5 passer rating (25th out of 34 qualified QBs)
> 8+ MPH: 82/136, 760 yards, 11 TD (6th), 2 INT, 60.3% comp pct (10th in NFL), 96.4 passer rating (11th)
Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bears Offense
Four different Bears tight ends have played at least 100 snaps this season (none over 300)
> Active TEs: J.P. Holtz & Jesper Horsted have distinct run-pass roles (Holtz 64% run | Horsted: 76% pass)
> Inactive TEs: Adam Shaheen (out since Wk 9), Trey Burton (out since Wk 10), Ben Braunecker (out since Wk 12)
David Montgomery: 35% rush success rate on outside carries, 5th-worst in the NFL (min. 50 carries)
> KC Defense: Allow 5.6 YPC on outside rushes this season, 3rd-highest in the NFL
Tarik Cohen: Targeted on shorter routes (by air yards) leading to higher efficiency since Week 6 Bye
> Weeks 1-5: 3.2 AY/T (64.5% catch rate, -12.5% Below Expectation) | Since Week 7: 1.0 AY/T (79.7% catch rate, -1.4%)
Allen Robinson: +6.4% Catch Rate Above Expectation this season (11th-best in NFL, min. 90 targets)
> 12 receptions in tight windows (< 1 yard of WR separation) this season, 4th-most in the NFL
Anthony Miller: Share of team air yards (32%) has more than doubled since Week 11 (Weeks 1-10: 15%)
> Since Week 11: Targeted on 28% of routes run from the Slot, 5th-highest in the NFL (min 50 routes)
Cordarrelle Patterson: Reached 15+ MPH on 73% of touches this season (2nd-highest, min. 40 touches)
> Reached 22.23 MPH in Week 2 on 46 yard run (2nd-fastest play this season)
Chiefs Defense
Chiefs employ Dime (6 DB) package on 26% of defensive plays this season, 6th-most in the NFL
> Dime (6 DB) Pass DEF: 65.2 passer rating allowed (4th-best in NFL, min 25 plays in Dime)
Terrell Suggs: Averages the 5th-fastest time to hurry (2.87 seconds) among EDGE (min 20 hurries)
> Suggs: 9.4% QB pressure rate with Cardinals this season is higher than any KC pass rusher (min. 300 pass rushes)
Chris Jones: More effective generating pressure since returning from injury in Week 9 (missed Wks 6-8)
> Last 5 Games: 18 pressures, 5 sacks (11% QBP rate) | First 5 Games: 11 pressures, 2 sacks (8% QBP rate)
Frank Clark: Pressure rate dropped from 12.0% in 2018 (with SEA) to 6.2% this season (with KC)
> 2nd-biggest decline in Y-O-Y pressure rate (-5.8%) among EDGE (min. 200 pass rushes) ahead of only Takk McKinley
Charvarius Ward: Allowed lowest catch rate as nearest defender since Week 10 (30.0%, min. 20 targets)
Tyrann Mathieu: 67% coverage success rate as the nearest defender since Week 10 (6th-best, min 20 tgts)
Juan Thornhill: Allowed 32.1% catch rate as nearest defender, lowest in the NFL (min. 20 targets)
> Thornhill has allowed a 29.3 passer rating as the nearest defender, lowest among Rookie DBs (min. 20 targets)
Daniel Sorensen: Targeted on 18% of coverage snaps, highest among safeties (min. 150 cov snaps)
The Similarities & Differences Between Matt Nagy & Andy Reid’s Offenses
The biggest difference between Nagy & Reid’s offenses - versatility of offensive personnel packages
> CHI Offense: 17 unique offensive groupings (T-4th in NFL) | KC Offense: 6 unique offensive groupings (31st in NFL)
The Bears (59%) & Chiefs (59%) use 11 Personnel at similar rates, Chiefs use 12 Personnel more often
> The Chiefs use 12 Personnel on 31% of plays (Bears 8%), Bears use 0-TE personnel on 12% of plays (Chiefs 0%)
The Chiefs use play action on 20% of offensive plays (4th-highest in NFL), Bears 14% (20th in NFL)
> Since 2018: Both Trubisky (20%) & Mahomes (15%) throw a high pct of passes from outside the tackle box
