Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 14 SNF PREVIEW: SEAHAWKS AT RAMS
QB Report: Russell Wilson
Wilson ranks 2nd among 33 qualified QBs in Comp Pct Above Expectation (+5.9%) this season
> Expected Comp Pct: 61.4% (3rd-most difficult in NFL) | Actual Comp Pct: 67.4% (8th in NFL)
> 1 of 4 QBs who has exceeded expectations in each of the last 4 seasons (Brees, Prescott & Ryan)
46.5% comp pct on deep attempts since 2018, best among 35 QBs (min. 35 deep attempts)
> Since 2018: 2 INT on 129 deep pass attempts, 1.6% INT (2016-2017: 9 INT on 166 deep attempts, 5.4% INT)
> 2019: 29/66, 961 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 124.1 passer rating (4th in NFL), +12.5% comp pct above expectation (2nd)
Wilson has excelled on extended plays (4+ seconds) this season (126.0 passer rating, 1st)
> Extended TTT (4.0+): 31/57, 533 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 126.0 passer rating (1st), 9.4 yards/attempt (4th)
> Week 5 at LAR: 30% of Wilson’s pass attempts came on extended plays (season-high), 5/7, 85 yards, 2 TD
Wilson improved dramatically on extended plays (4+ seconds) under OC Brian Schottenheimer
> 2018-19 (Schottenheimer): 75/137 (54.7%), 9.1 yds/att, 15 TD, 1 INT, (119.1 passer rating) - 48% pass success rate
> 2016-17 (Bevell): 77/171 (45.0%), 6.9 yds/att, 7 TD, 5 INT (69.8 passer rating) - 37% pass success rate
> Under Schottenheimer, Wilson stays in the tackle box longer on extended plays (4.10s) than under Bevell (3.83s)
Wilson is getting the ball out quicker this season (2.81 seconds) than last season (3.02 seconds)
> Pressure rate has declined over the last 4 seasons (2016: 29% | 2017: 28% | 2018: 25% | 2019: 24%)
> Wilson’s average time to throw against the blitz this season (2.67 sec) is significantly quicker than 2018 (3.05 sec)
> Week 5 vs LAR: Average time to throw (3.59 sec) was Wilson’s longest in a game this season
Wilson has been the most blitzed QB in the NFL this season (43% of dropbacks)
> Wilson has been more successful against 4-or-fewer rushers (55% pass success) than vs blitz (47% pass success)
> Week 5 vs LAR: Rams blitzed on 6 of 24 dropbacks (25%), 0 pressures when blitzing (6 pressures when not blitzing)
Wilson throws outside the numbers on 53% of passes (next closest QB: Aaron Rodgers at 49%)
> Week 5 vs LAR: Targeted the middle third on 2 attempts (0 completions) | Left OR Right: 17/21, 268 yards, 4 TD
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks Offense
Chris Carson: Has not been as effective on inside runs this season (3.7 YPC) compared to 2018 (5.0)
> Fewer runs of 10+ yards inside - 2019: 8 runs of 10+ yds (6% big play) | 2018: 17 runs of 10+ yds (12% big play)
> Week 13 vs MIN: Carson gained 78 yards on 14 outside runs (5.6 YPC), 24 yards on 9 inside runs (2.7 YPC)
Rashad Penny: More productive rushing from under center (74% success rate) than shotgun (39%)
> Almost half of his carries have come from shotgun (31 of 65), 19% stuff rate in shotgun (6% under center)
Tyler Lockett: Reached 15+ MPH on 23% of plays in Weeks 1-10, 16% of plays in Weeks 11-12
> Lockett sustained a shin contusion at the end of the Week 10 game and had a flu leading up to Week 12
D.K. Metcalf: 42 of 77 targets (55%) have come outside the numbers to the left, most in NFL
> Avg WR separation has drastically improved - Weeks 1-7: 2.0 yards (3rd-lowest) | Weeks 8-13: 3.2 yards (6th-highest)
Will Dissly: Russell Wilson’s comp pct has dropped from 74.8% to 64.6% without Dissly on the field
> Wilson throws into a tight window more often without Dissly on the field this season (ON: 13% | OFF: 20%)
Rams Defense
Aaron Donald: Averages the fastest “pass rush get-off” (0.82 sec) among DT (min. 100 pass rushes)
> Pass Rush Get Off - The average time it takes for a pass rusher to cross the line of scrimmage (DT Avg - 1.01 sec)
Dante Fowler: Averages the T-5th-fastest get-off (0.77 sec) among EDGE (min. 100 pass rushes)
> Slightly slower off the line since 2018 midseason trade to LAR (0.78 sec) than in 2016-17 with JAX (0.73 sec)
> Pass Rush Get Off - The average time it takes for a pass rusher to cross the line of scrimmage (EDGE Avg - 0.86 sec)
Clay Matthews: Aligns on LEFT side of defense on 70% of snaps, ineffective as rusher from the right
> LEFT (118 pass rushes): 19 pressures (16.1% QBP rate) | RIGHT (64 pass rushes): 3 pressures (4.7% QBP rate)
Cory Littleton: 24 hustle stops since 2018, 3rd-most in that span (L. Kuechly, 28 & L. David, 27)
> Hustle Stops - Defensive stops where the player covers 20+ yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle
Eric Weddle: Been used as pass rusher less frequently, drops into coverage more often with Rams
> 2019 (With LAR): 5 blitzes, 0 QB pressures: 2016-2019 (with BAL): 84 blitzes, 15 QB pressures, 18% pressure rate
> Passer rating allowed has regressed over the last 4 seasons: 2016: 36.7 | 2017: 48.8 | 2018: 78.6 | 2019: 113.6
Taylor Rapp: Aligns in the box on 54% of defensive snaps (290/542), higher than other Rams safeties
> Eric Weddle: 14% box (735 snaps) | John Johnson: 33% box (375 snaps) | Marqui Christian: 25% box (310 snaps)
Seahawks use 6+ OL on 22% of snaps (highest rate in the NFL) and run on 77% of these plays
The Rams generate pressure on 35% of dropbacks with a 4-man pass rush (1st in NFL)
> The Rams blitz on 31% of pass plays, near the NFL average (29%), 30% pressure rate when blitzing (22nd in NFL)
> Week 5 at SEA: Blitzed Wilson on 6 of 24 dropbacks (25%), 0 pressures when blitzing (6 pressures when not blitzing)
The Rams allow 4.2 YPC on outside rushes (4th in NFL) & 3.6 YPC on inside runs (10th in NFL)
Seahawks Deep Passing Game vs Rams Secondary
Wilson throws deep often (17%, the highest rate in NFL) and has been excellent on deep passes
> 2019: 29/66, 961 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 124.1 passer rating (4th in NFL), +12.5% comp pct above expectation (2nd)
Tyler Lockett: Leads all WRs in catch rate on deep targets (55.1%) since 2016 (NFL Avg: 32.4%)
> Last 3 Games (Weeks 10-13): 1 reception on 5 deep targets (Weeks 1-9: 10 rec on 16 deep targets)
Seahawks OL vs Aaron Donald
Seahawks OL: Sack rate allowed from the interior has more than doubled since Week 8
> Weeks 1-7: 5 interior sacks allowed (2.0% sack rate) | Weeks 8-13: 8 interior sacks allowed (4.7% sack rate)
> Joey Hunt became the starting center after Justin Britt suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 8
Aaron Donald: Leads the NFL QB pressures (56) for the second consecutive season (72 in 2018)
> Since 2016: 254 QB pressures, 40 more than the next closest pass rusher (Von Miller)
Week 5 Matchup: Donald was held to 2 QB pressures (0 sacks) on 20 pass rushes (10% QBP rate)
QB Report: Jared Goff
Goff ranks last among 33 qualified QBs in Completion Pct Relative to Expectation (-4.8%)
> Expected Comp Pct: 67.3% (4th-easiest in NFL) | Actual Comp Pct: 62.5% (23rd in NFL)
Goff has struggled when holding the ball for longer than 2.50 seconds (79.2 passer rating)
> Long (2.50+ sec): 150/275 (54.5% comp pct), 7 TD, 7 INT (79.2 passer rating), 32% pressure rate
> Quick (<2.50 sec): 133/177 (75.1% comp pct), 6 TD, 5 INT (92.3 passer rating), 15% pressure rate
Goff threw his first TD on play action this season in Week 13 at ARI (2018: 15 play action TD, most in NFL)
> 2019: 79/126 (62.7% comp pct), 8.3 yards/att, 1 TD, 5 INT (74.9 passer rating)
> 2018: 123/201 (61.2% comp pct), 10.0 yards/att, 15 TD, 2 INT (115.3 passer rating)
Goff has struggled against the blitz this season, compared to his first 2 seasons w/McVay
> 2019: 79/143, 55.2% comp pct, 6.8 yards/att, 3 TD, 4 INT, 71.7 passer rating
> 2017-18: 175/300, 58.3% comp pct, 8.9 yards/att, 19 TD, 4 INT, 103.4 passer rating
> Week 13 at ARI: 7/11, 68 yards, TD (111.2 passer rating) vs blitz
Goff’s completion pct on deep attempts dropped from 45.5% in 2018 to 27.5% this season
> 2018 (Deep): 25/55 (45.5% comp pct) 6 TD, 3 INT | 2019 (Deep): 11/40 (27.5% comp pct), 1 TD, 2 INT
Ranks in the top 10 in pct of attempts under center, longer dropbacks (2.50+ sec) & play action
> Pct of Att Under Center: 31% (3rd among QB), Pct of Att 2.50+ sec: 61% (5th), Pct of Att Play Action: 27% (7th)
Goff was pressured on 31% of dropbacks over first 7 games (24% pressure rate over last 5 games)
61% of Goff’s attempts have 2.50+ seconds time to throw this season (5th-highest rate in NFL)
Throws into tight windows on just 12% of attempts (2nd-lowest rate in NFL)
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Todd Gurley
Gurley has seen a decline in playtime in games when active this season (2018: 86% | 2019: 73%)
> 2018: Exceeded 1,000 yds of in-play distance in 10 of 14 games (71%) | 2019: 1 of 11 games (9%)
> Week 5 at SEA: Only game this season Gurley exceeded 1,000 yards of in-play distance (1023.7 yards)
Gurley has faced light boxes (< 6 defenders in box) less often this season (38%) than in 2018 (54%)
> Rate of stacked boxes faced (8+ defenders) increase to 21% this season (8% in 2018)
Gurley has been less successful on outside runs and more successful on inside runs this season
> Outside Runs - 2018: 5.6 YPC, 61% rush success rate | 2019: 3.7 YPC, 47% rush success rate
> Inside Runs - 2018: 3.0 YPC, 51% rush success rate | 2019: 4.9 YPC, 57% rush success rate
> Gurley takes longer to get to the line of scrimmage on outside runs this season (3.10 sec) than in 2018 (2.83 sec)
Rams Wide Receivers (Woods, Kupp & Cooks)
Robert Woods: Averages 3.5 yards of separation per target, best among WRs (min. 40 targets)
> Averages 4.4 yards of separation when aligned tight, highest among all pre-snap alignments
Cooper Kupp: Goff has a 63.4% comp pct when Kupp has been on the field this season (OFF: 52.5%)
> Kupp aligns tight on 28% of his snaps in 2019, highest rate in NFL among WR
Brandin Cooks: Goff’s passer rating is 22.0 points higher with Cooks on the field (ON: 91.0 | OFF: 69.0)
> ON-Field (323 pass plays): 66.0% comp pct | OFF-Field (151 pass plays): 54.8% comp pct
Seahawks Defense
Jadeveon Clowney: The Seahawks generate +7.2% more pressure with Clowney on-field
> ON-Field (358 pass plays): 25.1% pressure rate, 5.0% sack rate, 18 sacks
> OFF-Field (140 pass plays): 17.9% pressure rate, 3.6% sack rate, 5 sacks
> Week 13 (missed Week 12 with injury): 1 pressure on 34 pass rushes (3% pressure rate)
Quinton Jefferson: 11.3% pressure rate, 3rd-highest among Interior DL (min. 150 pass rushes)
K.J. Wright: 12 Hustle Stops this season, 4th-most in the NFL (successful tackle & 20+ yds of distance)
Shaquem Griffin: Has played 46 defensive snaps over the last 3 weeks (Weeks 1-9: 0 defensive snaps)
> Despite “LB” position tag, Griffin has blitzed on 38 of 43 pass plays (88% as a pass rusher)
> 2018: Played on 48 defensive snaps all of last season
Shaquill Griffin: Allows 6.4 yards/target as nearest defender, 9th-fewest in NFL (min. 50 targets)
> Griffin forces tight window throws at the 10th highest rate in the NFL this season (31%)
Bradley McDougald: 37.5 passer rating as nearest defender in 2019, 3rd-lowest in NFL (min. 30 targets)
The Rams have maintained their usage of 11 personnel and under center alignment from last season
> 2019 (All Plays): 78% in 11 personnel (2nd in NFL), 54% under center (3rd)
> 2018 (All Plays): 91% in 11 personnel (1st in NFL), 59% under center (1st)
Rams receivers align in “bunch” (2+ receivers within 1.5 yds) on 11% of plays, highest rate in NFL
The Rams deploy WRs in the tight alignment at the highest rate in the NFL (14%)
> Cooper Kupp aligns tight on 28% of his snaps in 2019, the highest rate in NFL among WRs (min. 10 snaps)
The Seahawks use 4-3 Base defense on 66% of plays, the highest rate in NFL (next closest, KC 32%)
> Use Nickel (5 DB) on just 30% of plays, 3rd-lowest in NFL (allow 6.7 YPP in Nickel, 2nd-most in NFL)
> Week 5 vs LAR: The Seahawks used 4-2-5 on 72% of plays vs 11 personnel (6.5 YPP), 4-3 on 28% of plays (13.2 YPP)
Seahawks 4-man pass rush has created QB pressure on just 20% of pass plays, 4th-lowest in NFL
> When blitzing, the Seahawks generate pressure on 30% of pass plays (20th in NFL)
The Seahawks have excelled at defending downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season
> vs Downfield Passes: 66/144, 1,364 yards, 5 TD (4th-fewest), 6 INT, 74.0 passer rating (4th-lowest)
How the Seahawks Matched Up Against the Rams Passing Attack in Week 5
Shaquill Griffin (78% of snaps at LCB) and Tre Flowers (96% of snaps at RCB) stuck to their sides
> Goff attacked the right third of the field (20 targets) more than the left third (12 targets)
> Shaquill Griffin lined up against Robert Woods on 27 pass plays, targeted only twice (only 5 plays vs Cooks)
TE vs LB: K.J Wright lined up against Gerald Everett OR Tyler Higbee on 22 of 30 pass snaps (73%)
> Everett & Higbee combined for 8 targets on 22 routes, 5 rec, 59 yards vs. Wright (0 targets on 10 routes vs all others)
In Week 5, Cooper Kupp was targeted 9 times on 16 routes (4 rec) when lined up vs Jamar Taylor
> The Seahawks waived Jamar Taylor ahead of Week 12, CB Akeem King has taken over Slot CB duties
> King has struggled as the nearest defender in coverage this season: 11 targets, 9 rec, 141 yards (18% success rate)