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NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 14 SNF PREVIEW: SEAHAWKS AT RAMS

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QB Report: Russell Wilson

Wilson ranks 2nd among 33 qualified QBs in Comp Pct Above Expectation (+5.9%) this season

    > Expected Comp Pct: 61.4% (3rd-most difficult in NFL) | Actual Comp Pct: 67.4% (8th in NFL)

    > 1 of 4 QBs who has exceeded expectations in each of the last 4 seasons (Brees, Prescott & Ryan)

46.5% comp pct on deep attempts since 2018, best among 35 QBs (min. 35 deep attempts)

    > Since 2018: 2 INT on 129 deep pass attempts, 1.6% INT (2016-2017: 9 INT on 166 deep attempts, 5.4% INT)

    > 2019: 29/66, 961 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 124.1 passer rating (4th in NFL), +12.5% comp pct above expectation (2nd)

Wilson has excelled on extended plays (4+ seconds) this season (126.0 passer rating, 1st)

    > Extended TTT (4.0+): 31/57, 533 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 126.0 passer rating (1st), 9.4 yards/attempt (4th)

    > Week 5 at LAR: 30% of Wilson’s pass attempts came on extended plays (season-high), 5/7, 85 yards, 2 TD

Wilson improved dramatically on extended plays (4+ seconds) under OC Brian Schottenheimer

    > 2018-19 (Schottenheimer): 75/137 (54.7%), 9.1 yds/att, 15 TD, 1 INT, (119.1 passer rating) - 48% pass success rate

    > 2016-17 (Bevell): 77/171 (45.0%), 6.9 yds/att, 7 TD, 5 INT (69.8 passer rating) - 37% pass success rate

    > Under Schottenheimer, Wilson stays in the tackle box longer on extended plays (4.10s) than under Bevell (3.83s)

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Wilson is getting the ball out quicker this season (2.81 seconds) than last season (3.02 seconds)

    > Pressure rate has declined over the last 4 seasons (2016: 29% | 2017: 28% | 2018: 25% | 2019: 24%)

    > Wilson’s average time to throw against the blitz this season (2.67 sec) is significantly quicker than 2018 (3.05 sec)

    > Week 5 vs LAR: Average time to throw (3.59 sec) was Wilson’s longest in a game this season

Wilson has been the most blitzed QB in the NFL this season (43% of dropbacks)

    > Wilson has been more successful against 4-or-fewer rushers (55% pass success) than vs blitz (47% pass success)

    > Week 5 vs LAR: Rams blitzed on 6 of 24 dropbacks (25%), 0 pressures when blitzing (6 pressures when not blitzing)

Wilson throws outside the numbers on 53% of passes (next closest QB: Aaron Rodgers at 49%)

    > Week 5 vs LAR: Targeted the middle third on 2 attempts (0 completions) | Left OR Right: 17/21, 268 yards, 4 TD

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense

Seahawks Offense

Chris Carson: Has not been as effective on inside runs this season (3.7 YPC) compared to 2018 (5.0)

    > Fewer runs of 10+ yards inside - 2019: 8 runs of 10+ yds (6% big play) | 2018: 17 runs of 10+ yds (12% big play)

    > Week 13 vs MIN: Carson gained 78 yards on 14 outside runs (5.6 YPC), 24 yards on 9 inside runs (2.7 YPC)

Rashad Penny: More productive rushing from under center (74% success rate) than shotgun (39%)

    > Almost half of his carries have come from shotgun (31 of 65), 19% stuff rate in shotgun (6% under center)

Tyler Lockett: Reached 15+ MPH on 23% of plays in Weeks 1-10, 16% of plays in Weeks 11-12

    > Lockett sustained a shin contusion at the end of the Week 10 game and had a flu leading up to Week 12

D.K. Metcalf: 42 of 77 targets (55%) have come outside the numbers to the left, most in NFL

    > Avg WR separation has drastically improved - Weeks 1-7: 2.0 yards (3rd-lowest) | Weeks 8-13: 3.2 yards (6th-highest)

Will Dissly: Russell Wilson’s comp pct has dropped from 74.8% to 64.6% without Dissly on the field

    > Wilson throws into a tight window more often without Dissly on the field this season (ON: 13% | OFF: 20%)

Rams Defense

Aaron Donald: Averages the fastest “pass rush get-off” (0.82 sec) among DT (min. 100 pass rushes)

    > Pass Rush Get Off - The average time it takes for a pass rusher to cross the line of scrimmage (DT Avg - 1.01 sec)

Dante Fowler: Averages the T-5th-fastest get-off (0.77 sec) among EDGE (min. 100 pass rushes)

    > Slightly slower off the line since 2018 midseason trade to LAR (0.78 sec) than in 2016-17 with JAX (0.73 sec)

    > Pass Rush Get Off - The average time it takes for a pass rusher to cross the line of scrimmage (EDGE Avg - 0.86 sec)

Clay Matthews: Aligns on LEFT side of defense on 70% of snaps, ineffective as rusher from the right

    > LEFT (118 pass rushes): 19 pressures (16.1% QBP rate) | RIGHT (64 pass rushes): 3 pressures (4.7% QBP rate)

Cory Littleton: 24 hustle stops since 2018, 3rd-most in that span (L. Kuechly, 28 & L. David, 27)

    > Hustle Stops - Defensive stops where the player covers 20+ yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle

Eric Weddle: Been used as pass rusher less frequently, drops into coverage more often with Rams

    > 2019 (With LAR): 5 blitzes, 0 QB pressures: 2016-2019 (with BAL): 84 blitzes, 15 QB pressures, 18% pressure rate

    > Passer rating allowed has regressed over the last 4 seasons: 2016: 36.7 | 2017: 48.8 | 2018: 78.6 | 2019: 113.6

Taylor Rapp: Aligns in the box on 54% of defensive snaps (290/542), higher than other Rams safeties

    > Eric Weddle: 14% box (735 snaps) | John Johnson: 33% box (375 snaps) | Marqui Christian: 25% box (310 snaps)

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Seahawks use 6+ OL on 22% of snaps (highest rate in the NFL) and run on 77% of these plays

The Rams generate pressure on 35% of dropbacks with a 4-man pass rush (1st in NFL)

    > The Rams blitz on 31% of pass plays, near the NFL average (29%), 30% pressure rate when blitzing (22nd in NFL)

    > Week 5 at SEA: Blitzed Wilson on 6 of 24 dropbacks (25%), 0 pressures when blitzing (6 pressures when not blitzing)

The Rams allow 4.2 YPC on outside rushes (4th in NFL) & 3.6 YPC on inside runs (10th in NFL)

Seahawks Deep Passing Game vs Rams Secondary

Wilson throws deep often (17%, the highest rate in NFL) and has been excellent on deep passes

    > 2019: 29/66, 961 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT, 124.1 passer rating (4th in NFL), +12.5% comp pct above expectation (2nd)

Tyler Lockett: Leads all WRs in catch rate on deep targets (55.1%) since 2016 (NFL Avg: 32.4%)

    > Last 3 Games (Weeks 10-13): 1 reception on 5 deep targets (Weeks 1-9: 10 rec on 16 deep targets)

Seahawks OL vs Aaron Donald

Seahawks OL: Sack rate allowed from the interior has more than doubled since Week 8

    > Weeks 1-7: 5 interior sacks allowed (2.0% sack rate) | Weeks 8-13: 8 interior sacks allowed (4.7% sack rate)

    > Joey Hunt became the starting center after Justin Britt suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 8

Aaron Donald: Leads the NFL QB pressures (56) for the second consecutive season (72 in 2018)

    > Since 2016: 254 QB pressures, 40 more than the next closest pass rusher (Von Miller)

Week 5 Matchup: Donald was held to 2 QB pressures (0 sacks) on 20 pass rushes (10% QBP rate)

QB Report: Jared Goff

Goff ranks last among 33 qualified QBs in Completion Pct Relative to Expectation (-4.8%)

    > Expected Comp Pct: 67.3% (4th-easiest in NFL) | Actual Comp Pct: 62.5% (23rd in NFL)

Goff has struggled when holding the ball for longer than 2.50 seconds (79.2 passer rating)

    > Long (2.50+ sec): 150/275 (54.5% comp pct), 7 TD, 7 INT (79.2 passer rating), 32% pressure rate

    > Quick (<2.50 sec): 133/177 (75.1% comp pct), 6 TD, 5 INT (92.3 passer rating), 15% pressure rate

Goff threw his first TD on play action this season in Week 13 at ARI (2018: 15 play action TD, most in NFL)

    > 2019: 79/126 (62.7% comp pct), 8.3 yards/att, 1 TD, 5 INT (74.9 passer rating)

    > 2018: 123/201 (61.2% comp pct), 10.0 yards/att, 15 TD, 2 INT (115.3 passer rating)

Goff has struggled against the blitz this season, compared to his first 2 seasons w/McVay

    > 2019: 79/143, 55.2% comp pct, 6.8 yards/att, 3 TD, 4 INT, 71.7 passer rating

    > 2017-18: 175/300, 58.3% comp pct, 8.9 yards/att, 19 TD, 4 INT, 103.4 passer rating

    > Week 13 at ARI: 7/11, 68 yards, TD (111.2 passer rating) vs blitz

Goff’s completion pct on deep attempts dropped from 45.5% in 2018 to 27.5% this season

    > 2018 (Deep): 25/55 (45.5% comp pct) 6 TD, 3 INT | 2019 (Deep): 11/40 (27.5% comp pct), 1 TD, 2 INT

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Ranks in the top 10 in pct of attempts under center, longer dropbacks (2.50+ sec) & play action

    > Pct of Att Under Center: 31% (3rd among QB), Pct of Att 2.50+ sec: 61% (5th), Pct of Att Play Action: 27% (7th)

Goff was pressured on 31% of dropbacks over first 7 games (24% pressure rate over last 5 games)

61% of Goff’s attempts have 2.50+ seconds time to throw this season (5th-highest rate in NFL)

Throws into tight windows on just 12% of attempts (2nd-lowest rate in NFL)

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Todd Gurley

Gurley has seen a decline in playtime in games when active this season (2018: 86% | 2019: 73%)

    > 2018: Exceeded 1,000 yds of in-play distance in 10 of 14 games (71%) | 2019: 1 of 11 games (9%)

    > Week 5 at SEA: Only game this season Gurley exceeded 1,000 yards of in-play distance (1023.7 yards)

Gurley has faced light boxes (< 6 defenders in box) less often this season (38%) than in 2018 (54%)

    > Rate of stacked boxes faced (8+ defenders) increase to 21% this season (8% in 2018)

Gurley has been less successful on outside runs and more successful on inside runs this season

    > Outside Runs - 2018: 5.6 YPC, 61% rush success rate | 2019: 3.7 YPC, 47% rush success rate

    > Inside Runs - 2018: 3.0 YPC, 51% rush success rate | 2019: 4.9 YPC, 57% rush success rate

    > Gurley takes longer to get to the line of scrimmage on outside runs this season (3.10 sec) than in 2018 (2.83 sec)

Rams Wide Receivers (Woods, Kupp & Cooks)

Robert Woods: Averages 3.5 yards of separation per target, best among WRs (min. 40 targets)

    > Averages 4.4 yards of separation when aligned tight, highest among all pre-snap alignments

Cooper Kupp: Goff has a 63.4% comp pct when Kupp has been on the field this season (OFF: 52.5%)

    > Kupp aligns tight on 28% of his snaps in 2019, highest rate in NFL among WR

Brandin Cooks: Goff’s passer rating is 22.0 points higher with Cooks on the field (ON: 91.0 | OFF: 69.0)

    > ON-Field (323 pass plays): 66.0% comp pct | OFF-Field (151 pass plays): 54.8% comp pct

Seahawks Defense

Jadeveon Clowney: The Seahawks generate +7.2% more pressure with Clowney on-field

    > ON-Field (358 pass plays): 25.1% pressure rate, 5.0% sack rate, 18 sacks

    > OFF-Field (140 pass plays): 17.9% pressure rate, 3.6% sack rate, 5 sacks

    > Week 13 (missed Week 12 with injury): 1 pressure on 34 pass rushes (3% pressure rate)

Quinton Jefferson: 11.3% pressure rate, 3rd-highest among Interior DL (min. 150 pass rushes)

K.J. Wright: 12 Hustle Stops this season, 4th-most in the NFL (successful tackle & 20+ yds of distance)

Shaquem Griffin: Has played 46 defensive snaps over the last 3 weeks (Weeks 1-9: 0 defensive snaps)

    > Despite “LB” position tag, Griffin has blitzed on 38 of 43 pass plays (88% as a pass rusher)

    > 2018: Played on 48 defensive snaps all of last season

Shaquill Griffin: Allows 6.4 yards/target as nearest defender, 9th-fewest in NFL (min. 50 targets)

    > Griffin forces tight window throws at the 10th highest rate in the NFL this season (31%)

Bradley McDougald: 37.5 passer rating as nearest defender in 2019, 3rd-lowest in NFL (min. 30 targets)

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The Rams have maintained their usage of 11 personnel and under center alignment from last season

    > 2019 (All Plays): 78% in 11 personnel (2nd in NFL), 54% under center (3rd)

    > 2018 (All Plays): 91% in 11 personnel (1st in NFL), 59% under center (1st)

Rams receivers align in “bunch” (2+ receivers within 1.5 yds) on 11% of plays, highest rate in NFL

The Rams deploy WRs in the tight alignment at the highest rate in the NFL (14%)

    > Cooper Kupp aligns tight on 28% of his snaps in 2019, the highest rate in NFL among WRs (min. 10 snaps)

The Seahawks use 4-3 Base defense on 66% of plays, the highest rate in NFL (next closest, KC 32%)

    > Use Nickel (5 DB) on just 30% of plays, 3rd-lowest in NFL (allow 6.7 YPP in Nickel, 2nd-most in NFL)

    > Week 5 vs LAR: The Seahawks used 4-2-5 on 72% of plays vs 11 personnel (6.5 YPP), 4-3 on 28% of plays (13.2 YPP)

Seahawks 4-man pass rush has created QB pressure on just 20% of pass plays, 4th-lowest in NFL

    > When blitzing, the Seahawks generate pressure on 30% of pass plays (20th in NFL) 

The Seahawks have excelled at defending downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season

    > vs Downfield Passes: 66/144, 1,364 yards, 5 TD (4th-fewest), 6 INT, 74.0 passer rating (4th-lowest)

How the Seahawks Matched Up Against the Rams Passing Attack in Week 5

Shaquill Griffin (78% of snaps at LCB) and Tre Flowers (96% of snaps at RCB) stuck to their sides

    > Goff attacked the right third of the field (20 targets) more than the left third (12 targets)

    > Shaquill Griffin lined up against Robert Woods on 27 pass plays, targeted only twice (only 5 plays vs Cooks)

TE vs LB: K.J Wright lined up against Gerald Everett OR Tyler Higbee on 22 of 30 pass snaps (73%)

    > Everett & Higbee combined for 8 targets on 22 routes, 5 rec, 59 yards vs. Wright (0 targets on 10 routes vs all others)

In Week 5, Cooper Kupp was targeted 9 times on 16 routes (4 rec) when lined up vs Jamar Taylor

    > The Seahawks waived Jamar Taylor ahead of Week 12, CB Akeem King has taken over Slot CB duties

    > King has struggled as the nearest defender in coverage this season: 11 targets, 9 rec, 141 yards (18% success rate)

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