Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 11 SNF PREVIEW: CHIEFS AT RAIDERS
Week 5 Revisited (Raiders 40, Chiefs 32)
Derek Carr Deep - Carr finished 4/6 for 219 yards & 2 TD on deep passes in Week 5 at KC (all 3 TD over 10+ yards)
> 219 deep pass yards were almost twice as many as Carr’s next closest game since 2016 (111 yds in Wk 17, 2017 vs LAC)
> Over the last 5 seasons, the only other game Carr threw 2 deep pass TD was Week 5, 2016 against the Chargers (in SD)
> Carr targeted 5 different Raiders receivers deep (out of 6 deep att) - Ruggs 2, Agholor 1, Renfrow 1, Gafford 1, Ingold 1
Ruggs Deep - Ruggs’ only 2 receptions were both on deep targets, over 40 yards of air distance & under 35% comp prob
> Q1 (8:51) Ruggs 46-yd (Go): 46.2 air distance, 1.0 receiver separation, 29.2% comp probability (Top Speed: 19.92 MPH)
> Q2 (2:50) Ruggs 72-yd TD (Post): 44.4 air distance, 3.2 receiver separation, 31.9% comp prob (Top Speed: 21.09 MPH)
> Both LV outside WRs had an average route depth 15+ yards downfield - Agholor: 16.6 | Ruggs: 15.0 (WR Avg: 11.8)
Jacobs Rushing Right - Ran more than twice as often to the right side of the field (70% vs 30%), higher success to right
> LEFT: 7 carries, 20 yards (2.9 YPC), TD (29% success rate) | RIGHT: 16 carries, 57 yards (3.6 YPC), TD (75% success rate)
+ Week 5: Trenton Brown played 100% of snaps at right tackle, his only full GP this season (Current right tackle: Sam Young)
> Derrick Nnadi (Week 5 vs LV): 4 run tackles on 25 run snaps | Nnadi ON (25 runs): 3.1 YPC allowed | OFF (10 runs): 6.6 YPC
Waller vs Chiefs DBs - Waller lined up against a DL or LB on only 1 of 30 routes in Week 5 vs KC (22 vs DB | 7 vs none)
Raiders Pass Rush - Generated 16 pressures, tied for their most in a game over the last 3 seasons (Wk 9, 2020 vs LAC)
> The Raiders generated a 34.8% pressure rate, their only game with a pressure rate over 30% vs the Chiefs since 2016
> Highest pressure rate faced by Mahomes in a game since Week 4, 2019 vs DET (35.7%)
> Mahomes threw his only INT under pressure this season: 4/13, 73 yards, INT | 3 sacks (tied season-high)
Forced to Hold Ball - Mahomes averaged for 3.71 seconds time to throw, longest in his career by almost 0.5 seconds
> Mahomes set career highs in avg time in tackle box (3.25s), on the run rate (33%), and extended dropback rate (30%)
> Mahomes traveled 1,044 yards of total distance over the course of the game (2nd-most in his career)
> Mahomes was forced to check down often, targeting the backfield on 29% of his passes with 2.5+ seconds time to throw
Mahomes Struggles Deep - Mahomes threw deep at the 2nd-highest rate in his career (23%) | 3/10, 86 yards, INT
Kelce Detached - Kelce ran 38 of 40 routes from slot or wide alignment (95%), 7 targets, 4 rec, 41 yards, TD out wide
> Wide (22 routes): 7 tgt, 4 rec, 41 yards, TD | Slot (16 routes): 4 tgt, 3 rec, 58 yards, INT | Tight (2 routes): 1 tgt, 1 rec, 9 yards
Patrick Mahomes by the Numbers
MVP Case - The leader in Total Pass EPA has won MVP in every season in the Next Gen Stats Era (since 2016)
> Ryan (2016): +184.0 (1st), Brady (2017): +132.9 (1st), Mahomes (2018): +195.1 (1st), Jackson (2019): +132.9 (1st)
> Top 5 (2020): Mahomes (+115.9), Aaron Rodgers (+99.9), Matt Ryan (+77.8), Josh Allen (+71.1), Russell Wilson (+62.5)
Mahomes by Air Yards - Mahomes throws shorter by air yards this season compared to first two seasons as a starter
> Mahomes (2020): 8.2 AY/A (15th in NFL), 11% deep pass pct (12th), +1.2 air yds past the sticks on 3rd down (19th)
> Mahomes (2018-19): 8.9 AY/A (6th in NFL), 15% deep pass pct (4th), +3.1 air yds past the sticks on 3rd down (4th)
Recent Aggressiveness - Mahomes threw deep (20+ air yards) on 8% of his passes in Weeks 1-4, 13% since Week 5
> Weeks 1-4: 3/12, 123 yards, 3 TD (-1.9% CPOE) | Weeks 5-9: 12/24, 394 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, (+12.3% CPOE)
Mahomes Behind LOS - Mahomes has thrown behind the LOS on 20%+ of his passes in each season as a starter
> Mahomes Pct of Att Behind LOS - 2018: 22% (2nd in NFL) | 2019: 21% (6th) | 2020: 22% (5th)
> Mahomes has thrown 9 TD passes on screen plays since 2018 (6 to RB, 1 to WR, 2 to TE), 2 more than any other QB
Mahomes Extends Plays - 1,911 yards when time to throw is greater than 4 seconds since 2018 (Most in NFL)
> Top 4 in Pass Yards on Extended Plays (4+ seconds): Mahomes (1,911), Wilson (1,824), Watson (1,696), Rodgers (1,579)
> Only QB to generate positive Expected Points Added on extended plays since 2018 (+0.04 EPA/dropback, NFL Avg: -0.53)
Mahomes vs Blitz - Mahomes has been blitzed at the 2nd-lowest rate (21%) since 2018 (just 1 of 18 INT vs blitz)
> Mahomes vs Blitz (since 2018): 9.1 YPA (1st in NFL), 126.6 passer rating (1st), +0.44 EPA/dropback (1st)
No Pressure - Mahomes is the only qualified QB to have not thrown an interception when kept clean this season
> Mahomes not Under Pressure (2020): 0 INT (1st), 124.4 passer rating (1st), +132.4 Total EPA (1st), +0.48 EPA/DB (1st)
More Play Action - Mahomes has used play action on 30%+ of dropbacks in three consecutive games (34% since Week 7)
> Mahomes Play Action Rate - Weeks 1-6: 19% (26th in NFL) | Since Week 7: 34% (3rd); 26/38, 317 yds, 3 TD
> Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA/dropback without play action (+0.35), 7th on play action dropbacks (+0.29)
Pop Passes - Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdowns on pop passes (3) for the second time in his career (2018: 3 TD)
> Mahomes on Pop Passes - 2018: 9/9, 78 yards, 3 TD (1st) | 2019: 4/4, 8 yards | 2020: 5/5, 53 yards, 3 TD (1st)
> Tyreek Hill (7 rec, 47 yds, 2 TD) & Mecole Hardman (4 rec, 47 yds, 2 TD) have been the main targets on pop passes
Derek Carr by the Numbers
Carr Deep - Carr throws deep at the 15th-lowest rate this season (9.5%), but has been very effective on deep attempts
> Carr (Deep) 2020: 12/27, 512 yards, 5 TD (T-8th), 0 INT, 130.8 passer rating (4th), 13.2% CPOE (8th), +32.2 Total EPA (2nd)
Carr Time to Throw - Since Gruden took over as HC in 2018, time to throw has increased (2016-17: 2.49s | 2018-20: 2.68s)
> Carr has been best on quick throws (2.5 seconds or less) since 2018, especially this season (103/129, 832 yards, 8 TD)
> Carr (since 2018): +0.22 EPA/dropback on quick passes, -0.06 EPA/dropback when time to throw 2.5+ seconds
Conservative Carr - Derek Carr averaged the lowest air yards per attempt in consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2019
> Carr - (2018): 6.7 air yds/att (last), 7% deep (4th-lowest) | (2019): 6.3 air yds/att (last), 7% deep (4th-lowest)
> 2020: Carr has averaged 7.8 air yards/attempt (12th-lowest), but has connected on 12/27 deep passes for 512 yards, 5 TD
Carr on Out-Breaking Routes - Leads the NFL in comp pct on out-breaking routes (83.5%), 7.5% CPOE (6th in NFL)
> Carr Targeting Out-Breaking Routes (2020): 71/85 (83.5%, 1st), 513 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, +7.5% CPOE (6th)
WR Screens in Gruden’s Offense - Carr ranks 3rd in Total Pass EPA targeting WR Screen routes since 2018 (+12.9)
> Top 3 EPA on WR Screens (since 2018): Jared Goff (+21.2), Ben Roethlisberger (+20.0), Derek Carr (+12.9)
> 2020: Out of 21 screen passes this season, 17 were WR/TE Screens (only 4 have been RB Screens)
Henry Ruggs vs Tyreek Hill
Ruggs Unlocking Carr Deep - Carr has been thrown deep at more than twice the rate with Henry Ruggs on the field
> Carr Deep - (Ruggs On-Field): 13% deep pct, 9/20, 426 yards, 5 TD | (Ruggs Off-field): 5% deep pct, 3/7, 86 yards, TD
Field Stretching - Agholor and Ruggs both rank in the top 10 of distance per route this season (min. 100 routes)
> Distance per route (2020): Nelson Agholor, 26.6 (9th) | Henry Ruggs, 26.4 (10th)
Ruggs vs Off-Coverage - Nearly all of Ruggs’ production has come against off-coverage (221 of 251 rec yards)
> Ruggs vs Off-Coverage (5+): 25 tgt, 13 rec, 251 yards, TD | Neutral (3-5): 6 tgt, 2 rec, 30 yards |vs Press (< 3): 3 tgt, 0 rec
> Ruggs has 0 receptions vs press coverage on 3 targets and 27 routes (11.1% target rate vs press | 16.7% vs no press)
> KC: only defense to align in press coverage vs detached receivers more than off coverage: 39% Press (1st), 35% Off (32nd)
Distance Per Route - Hardman and Hill both rank top 3 in yards of distance per route since 2019 (min. 300 routes)
> Top 5 (since 2019): Zay Jones (27.6), M. Hardman (27.3), T. Hill (27.1), Miles Boykin (27.0), Scotty Miller (26.3)
Comparing Ruggs & Hill’s Route Trees - Ruggs and Hill run similar route trees, but Ruggs runs Go’s at a higher rate
> Ruggs Tree (2020): 25% Go, 18% Out, 15% Cross, 11% Hitch, 8% Corner, 8% Slant, 7% Flat, 7% Post, 2% Screen, 1% In
> Hill Route Tree (2020): 19% Go, 19% Cross, 17% Hitch, 12% Post, 10% Corner, 8% Out, 4% In, 4% Flat, 4% Slant, 3% Screen
Tyreek Hill on Crossing Routes - 8 receiving TD on crossing routes since 2018 (2nd in NFL, Cooper Kupp: 9)
> Hill (since 2018): 6 of 8 receiving TD on crossing routes have come from slot (5) or tight (1) alignment (only 2 TD wide)
> Hill on Crosses (Since 2018): 42 rec, 53 tgts, 560 yds, 8 TD, 1 INT (142.4 receiver rating), +9.1% CROE, 3.0 yds/route
Hill’s Explosive First Step - 10.09 MPH average top speed within 1 second of a route, fastest in the NFL (min. 100 routes)
> 1-Second Avg Top Speed (min. 100 routes) - T. Hill (10.09 MPH), M. Hall (10.05 MPH), M. Hardman (9.97 MPH)
> 1-Second Avg Top Speed on Go Routes (min. 40 routes): Hill (10.83 MPH), T. Patrick (10.01 MPH), D. Hamilton (9.98 MPH)
Darren Waller vs Travis Kelce
Versatile Route Production - Kelce has gained 200 yards on 5 different routes since 2019 (Waller: 3, T-2nd among TE)
> Kelce Yards by Route - Cross: 361 (1st among TE), Hitch: 353 (1st), Out: 310 (1st), In: 230 (1st), Corner: 226 (2nd)
> Waller Yards by Route - Cross: 333 (4th among TE), Hitch: 239 (2nd), Flat: 221 (1st)
Waller on Flat Routes - 221 receiving yards on flat routes since 2019, 73 more than any other TE (33.6% target rate)
> Waller on Flat Routes (TE Ranks since 2019): 32 receptions (1st), 221 yards (1st), 33.6% target rate (3rd, min. 50 routes)
Iso Y - Kelce has aligned as the Isolated-Y on 30% of his routes this season, 2x the next closest TE (Waller: 15%)
> Top 5 (min. 100 routes): Kelce (30%), Waller (15%), Gesicki (13%), Thomas (13%), Burton (12%)
> Kelce as Iso-Y (since 2019): 42 rec (1st), 62 targets (1st), 619 yards (1st), 3 TD (1st), 28.4% target rate, 2.8 yards/route
> Waller as Iso-Y (since 2019): 27 rec (2nd), 37 targets (2nd), 305 yds (2nd), 2 TD (T-2nd), 29.4% target rate, 2.4 yards/route
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Going in Motion - The Chiefs use shifts/motion on 65% of offensive plays this season (3rd in NFL), 25 TD (most in NFL)
> LV Offense: Shift/motion on 63% of offensive plays this season (4th in NFL), 17 TD (T-5th)
11 Personnel on 3rd Down - The Chiefs use 11 personnel on 89% of plays (5th-highest in NFL), 8.3 YPP (3rd in NFL)
> 2019: The Chiefs used 11 personnel on only 63% of 3rd down plays (27th-highest in NFL)
Le’Veon Bell - Bell has faced light boxes at twice the rate with the Chiefs (88%) than he did with the Jets (44%)
> Utilized his patient style more with the Chiefs - Avg Time to LOS (since 2016) - KC: 3.27s | NYJ: 2.85s | PIT: 3.08s
Raiders Pass Rush Improving - Rank outside the bottom 6 in pressure rate for the first time since trading Khalil Mack
> Raiders Pressure Rate Ranks - 2018: 16.8% (only team under 23%) | 2019: 22.9% (28th) | 2020: 24.2% (17th)
Raiders Blitz-Averse - The Raiders have blitzed at a bottom five rate in all three seasons under DC Paul Guenther
> Raiders Blitz Rate by Season - 2018: 18% (30th) | 2019: 21% (28th) | 2020: 19% (31st)
(+) Without Cory Littleton - Team-high 6 hustle stops, T-2nd most run stuffs, struggled in coverage vs Kelce in Wk 5
> Entering Week 10, Littleton was on the Raiders player to play over 90% of snaps (Littleton had played 505 out of 507)
> Week 5 vs KC - Littleton allowed 6 receptions for 107 yards on 7 targets as nearest defender (4 rec, 57 yards vs Kelce)
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Josh Jacobs - Jacobs has gained +230 rush yards over expected (RYOE) since entering the league in 2019 (5th in NFL)
> Jacobs has exceeded his expected rush yards on 37% of carries since 2019 (4th in NFL, min. 200 carries)
> The Raiders have only been expected to gain 4.0 yards per carry in 2020 (25th in NFL)
Nelson Agholor Out Wide - Agholor has moved from a slot role w/Eagles to an outside receiver role w/Raiders
> Agholor Alignment Tendencies - (2019, PHI): 63% slot, 32% wide, 5% tight | (2020): 26% slot, 68% wide, 5% tight
Chiefs in Dime - Top 5 in Dime usage for the second straight season (2019: 32%, 5th | 2020: 36%, 2nd)
Chiefs Downfield Defense - Struggled in Week 5 loss to Raiders defending downfield passes (10+ air yards)
> NFL Ranks (2020): 39.8% comp pct (2nd), 20.7 AY/A (6th most), 6 INT (T-5th), 71.4 passer rating allowed (4th-lowest)
> Week 5 vs LV: 6/11, 247 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 54.5% comp pct, 23.7 AY/A, 101.3 passer rating allowed
Loose Coverage - The Chiefs allow the 3rd-highest average target separation (3.7 yards) in the NFL this season
Chris Jones Burst - Jones ranks 3rd in average pass rush get-off (0.91 seconds) since 2019 among IDL
> Top 4 IDL (min. 200 rushes): Aaron Donald (0.86s), Taven Bryan (0.89s), Chris Jones (0.91s), Efe Obada (0.91s)
> Jones (2020): 25 pressures (team-high by 14), 5.5 sacks (team-high) on 210 pass rushes, 11.9% pressure rate
Bashaud Breeland - Allowed 3.6 yards per target as nearest defender, best among outside CB (min. 100 cov snaps)
> Only outside CB in NFL to play 100+ snaps in coverage and allow fewer than 100 yards as the nearest defender
Jonathan Abram vs Tyrann Mathieu
Abram Alignment - Abram has aligned as a deep safety on the majority of his snaps this season (57%)
> Abram Alignment Tendencies (2020): 57% deep safety, 18% box safety, 13% slot CB, 10% LOS defender, 2% outside CB
Abram Blitzing - Abram has been effective as a blitzer in his career, 5 QB pressures on 37 pass rushes (13.5%)
Mathieu in the Slot - Lines up as a slot CB on nearly half of snaps (46%), more often than at safety (28%) & box (24%)
> Mathieu is 1 of 5 DBs with 300+ snaps & 20%+ in the box, slot and safety (Others: E. Murray, Chinn, T. Edmunds, T. Walker)
Mathieu Struggles Week 9 vs CAR - Allowed 100+ yards as nearest defender for first time over the last 5 seasons
> Mathieu (Week 9 vs CAR): 10 targets, 8 rec allowed, 113 yards, TD | Mathieu was targeted deep 4 times, 2 rec allowed
> 2020: Mathieu has forced a tight window on just 2 of 49 targets this season (4.1%) | 2019: 17.1% tight window pct
Mathieu Blitzing - Mathieu has not generated a QB pressure since Week 1 (0 pressures on 21 blitzes over last 8 games)
> Pressure & Pressure Rate - 2017: 12 QBP (21.8%) | 2018: 4 QBP (12.9%) | 2019: 5 QBP (11.6%) | 2020: 1 QBP (4.0%)
