Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 9 SNF PREVIEW: SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS
Drew Brees vs Tom Brady
Brees & Brady by QB Tendencies - Both QBs have similar time to throw & pocket tendencies, Brady more air yards
> Brees (2020): 2.68 avg TTT, 95% inside tackle box (5th-highest), 5.8 air yards/attempt (last among qualified QB)
> Brady (2020): 2.63 avg TTT, 97% inside tackle box (highest), 9.0 air yards/attempt (7th among qualified QB)
> Opponents blitz Brees on 20% of dropbacks (3rd-lowest rate among QB), Brady on 18% of dropbacks (lowest among QB)
Brees Low Deep Rate - Brees has thrown fewer deep passes in each season since 2016 (2020: 3% deep, last in NFL)
> Lowest Deep Pass Rate in a Season: Brees (2020): 3%, R. Tannehill (2020): 6%, R. Fitzpatrick (2020): 6%
> Decrease in deep attempts in each of last 4 seasons - 2016: 64 att | 2017: 50 att | 2018: 45 att | 2019: 26 att | 2020: 7 att
> Deep 20+ AY (2020): 4/7, 132 yards, 2 TD (Tight end Jared Cook has accounted for 3 of the 7 deep att, 2 rec, 87 yds, TD)
Brady Deep - Brady has thrown deep on 14% of his attempts this season, his highest rate over the last 5 seasons
> Brady Deep (2020): 14% deep pct (4th), 44 attempts (1st), 14 completions (T-4th), 505 yards (3rd)
> Brady has struggled on deep passes over the last 4 games, completing just 3 of 22 attempts (11/22 in Weeks 1-4)
Brees by Air Yards - Brees ranks last in air yards/attempt among qualified QB this season (5.8), never higher than 28th
> Air Yards/Att (Brees Ranks) - 2016: 7.6 (28th) | 2017: 6.3 (Last) | 2018: 7.1 (29th) | 2019: 6.7 (30th) | 2020: 6.0 (Last)
Brady on More Difficult Passes - When completion probability is under 50% (2020): 42.9% comp pct (2018-’19: 33.3%)
> CP < 50% (2020 w/TB): 27/63, 9 TD, 0 INT, 42.9% comp pct (5th), +8.7% CPOE (7th), +0.34 EPA/dropback (3rd)
> CP <50% (2018-19 w/NE): 86/264, 23 TD, 8 INT, 32.6% comp pct, -2.4% CPOE, -0.06 EPA/dropback
> Brady and Brees (31 att) are the only 2 QB to not throw an INT on a pass with <50% CP, Brady has double the attempts
Drew Brees By the Numbers
Brees Improving - Brees had the 3rd-lowest comp pct over exp in Weeks 1-2 (-8.4%), 2nd-highest since Week 3 (+6.0%)
> After having a negative CPOE in Weeks 1 & 2, Brees has completed more passes than expected in every game since
Brees Longer Time to Throw - 2.68s average time to throw this season (under 2.6 seconds in previous four seasons)
> Brees Time to Throw - 2016: 2.42s (3rd) | 2017: 2.58s (7th) | 2018: 2.59s (3rd) | 2018: 2.57s (3rd) | 2020: 2.68s (13th)
> Since 2019, Brees has a faster average time to throw with Michael Thomas on the field (2.55 sec) than without (2.72 sec)
Low Pressure Rate Against - Brees has ranked in the top 5 least pressured QBs in each of the last five seasons
> Brees Pressure Rate - 2016: 18.2% (5th) | 2017: 19.3% (4th) | 2018: 18.4% (3rd) | 2019: 18.5 (2nd) | 2020: 17.6% (3rd)
Holding onto Ball - While Brees typically relies on quick passes, he’s been efficient on passes over 2.5 sec since 2019
> 2.5+ sec (since 2019): +0.25 EPA/DB (2nd), 112.3 passer rating (2nd), 73.9% comp pct (1st), 13% tight window pct (1st)
> Brees’ efficiency on longer dropbacks (2.5+ sec) is correlated with short passes (6.3 air yds/att, last among QB)
Accuracy Drop Off - Brees ranks outside the top 2 in Completion Pct Over Expectation for the first time since 2016
> CPOE (Brees Ranks) - 2016: +4.6% (9th) | 2017: +3.5% (1st) | 2018: +6.9% (1st) | 2019: +6.3% (2nd) | 2020: +2.2% (15th)
> Brees has a positive Comp Pct Over Expected in every game since Week 2 - Weeks 1-2: -8.4% | Weeks 3-8: +6.0%
Tom Brady By the Numbers
Brady’s Passing Tendencies by Team - More “in-rhythm” & deep passes, less YAC & play action this season with TB
> Brady w/TB (2020): 51% “in rhythm” (2.5 - 4 sec), 14% deep pct, 41% of yards from YAC, 20% play action
> Brady w/NE (2018-19): 45% “in rhythm” (2.5 - 4 sec), 9% deep pct, 51% of yards from YAC, 27% play action
> Brady’s average time to throw has remained stable (TB: 2.63s | NE: 2.68s), increase in air yards (TB: 9.0 | NE: 7.6)
Brady’s Formations by Team - Less shift/motions, more trips & bunch, less 2-back formations this season with TB
> Brady w/TB (2020): 45% pre-snap shift/motion, 58% trips formation, 22% bunch formation, 4% 2-Back formations
> Brady w/NE (2018-19): 63% pre-snap shift/motion, 35% Trips formation, 4% bunch formation, 27% 2-Back formations
> Brady also lines up in shotgun more often in TB (58%) than in NE (49%), still below NFL average (62%)
Brady’s Route Tendencies by Team - Brady’s targeted route types have remained relatively consistent since joining TB
> Brady’s Top Routes by % of Attempts w/TB (2020): 17% Out, 13% Hitch, 13% Flat, 10% Go, 10% Cross, 7% WR Screen
> Brady's Top Routes by % of Attempts w/NE (2018-19): 14% Out, 14% Hitch, 13% Flat, 11% Cross, 10% Go, 6% In
Brady by Time to Throw - All 4 interceptions have come on quick passes (Quick: 12 TD, 4 INT | Long: 8 TD, 0 INT)
> Under 2.5 sec: 4.6 AY/A, 12 TD, 4 INT, +0.09 EPA/dropback | Over 2.5 sec: 12.6 AY/A, 8 TD, 0 INT, +0.24 EPA/dropback
> Avg Time to Throw - 2016: 2.56s (12th) | 2017: 2.71s (19th) | 2018: 2.62s (5th) | 2019: 2.75s (12th) | 2020: 2.63s (8th)
> Brady has already thrown more pass TD (12, T-1st in NFL) on quick passes this season than all of last season (10)
Arians’ Downfield Attack - Brady is averaging slightly fewer air yards/attempt than Carson Palmer & Jameis Winston
> All three starting QBs under Arians have ranked top 5 in air yards per attempt since 2016 (2020: Brady ranks 7th)
> 2016: C. Palmer (10.1, 3rd) | 2017: C. Palmer (9.4, 4th) | 2019: J. Winston (10.5, 2nd) | 2020: T. Brady (9.0, 7th)
Brady on Go Routes - Brady has already thrown as more pass TD (8) on go routes this season as all of last season (7)
> Brady Go Routes - (2020): 8 TD (1st), 0 INT, 50.0% comp pct, 11.7 YPA | (2018-19): 12 TD, 5 INT, 35.5% comp pct, 9.4 YPA
> Brady has a completion on a go route to 7 different receivers this season (T-2nd most in NFL, Deshaun Watson: 8)
> Mike Evans (5), Rob Gronkowski (3), and Scotty Miller (3) all lead the Buccaneers in Go Route receptions
Targeting In-Breaking Routes - Brady has been more successful targeting in-breaking routes than out-breaking routes
> In-Breaking (In, Cross, Slant, Angle, Post): 64/94 (68.1%), 813 yards (8.6 YPA), 7 TD, 2 INT, +42.7 Total EPA (8th in NFL)
> Out-Breaking (Out, Flat, Corner): 68/100 (68.0%), 545 yards (5.5 YPA), 4 TD, 2 INT, -5.0 Total EPA (3rd-lowest in NFL)
> Brady averages 10.5 air yards per attempt on “in”-breaking routes, 3rd-deepest among QB (behind Wentz & Lock)
Brady Inside the Pocket - Thrown only 10 passes from outside the tackle box this season (298 inside the tackle box)
> 2020: Brady has thrown 97% of pass attempts from inside the tackle box, highest rate in the NFL (among qualified QB)
> Low Play Action Usage - 20% of dropbacks have been play action, 7th-lowest among QB (Brady’s 5-year low)
Opponents Haven’t Blitzed - Brady has faced 5+ pass rushers on only 17.9 % of dropbacks, the lowest rate among QBs
> Brady’s low blitz rate against (17.9%) is the 2nd-lowest faced by a QB in a season in the NGS era (since 2016)
> Brady has not been as effective against the blitz last 2 seasons (6.4 YPA vs blitz) compared to 2016-18 (8.3 YPA vs blitz)
Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray vs Ronald Jones/Leonard Fournette
Getting Kamara Involved - Kamara has run 54 screen routes this season, more than 2x as many as next closest player
> Kamara ran just 28 screen routes in 2019 total (8% of routes) | 2020: 20 rec, 148 yards, 2 TD on screens (26 targets)
Kamara in Red Zone - Has gained more rush yards than expected on 42.2% of carries in the red zone since 2019
> Top 5 since 2019 (min. 20 att): Cook (47.9%), Hunt (46.7%), Kamara (42.2%), Singletary (40.0%), Coleman (37.9%)
Kamara Focal Point of Passing Game - Alvin Kamara has been targeted on 36.3% of routes this season (1st in NFL)
> Top 4 in Target % per Route (min. 75 routes): Kamara (36.3%), A. Jones (34.1%), D. Adams (33.9%), K. Allen (33.0%)
Ronald Jones - Ranks 5th in rushing yards over expected (+92) among RB this season (529 yards, 437 expected)
> Top 5 (2020): D. Cook (+153), P. Lindsay (+111), Nick Chubb (+102), R. Mostert (+95), R. Jones (+92)
Jones vs Fournette - Fournette and Jones both have performed above expectation, despite lacking space
> (Among 64 RB, min. 30 att) Fournette: 4.1 xYPC (37th), +0.4 RYOE/att (23rd) | Jones: 3.7 xYPC (57th), +0.8 RYOE (9th)
Low Rush Expectations - The Buccaneers RBs have outperformed expectations despite a lack of space this season
> TB Running Backs: 3.8 expected rush YPC (29th in NFL), +0.6 rush yards over expected per carry (5th), 4.6 YPC (13th)
Buccaneers Stiff Run D - The Buccaneers allow just 2.8 YPC to RBs this season, 0.6 yards less than any other team
> TB Defense vs RB: Allowed 3.6 expected rush YPC (4th), -0.8 rush yards over expected per carry (2nd), 2.8 YPC (1st)
Michael Thomas vs Buccaneers Talented Receiving Corps
Tom Brady to Antonio Brown - Brady completed 3/5 targets traveling 10+ air yards to Brown for 48 yards, TD in 2019
> Brown ran a go route on 7 of his 14 routes last season (50%), 1 reception, 20 yards, TD on 4 targets
Brown on Go Routes - Brown ran 234 go routes in his last full season in 2018, 53 more than any other player
> Brown on Go Routes (2018): 32 targets (3rd), 13 rec (T-2nd), 367 yards (5th), 8 TD (3 more than any other player)
Brown on Screens - Brown led the NFL with 24 receptions and 3 TDs on screen passes in 2018
> Buccaneers WR screen receptions (2020): Godwin (6), Miller (4), Evans (2, only player to score a TD), Johnson (2)
> Brady has targeted WR screens at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL this season (6.5%, NFL Avg: 4.9%)
Evans on Go Routes - 30 receptions on Go routes since 2018, 7 more than the next closest WR (Davante Adams, 23)
> Since 2018 (Go Routes): 70 targets (1st), 30 receptions (1st), 895 yards (1st), 11 TD (1st), +8.6% Catch Rate Over Exp
Evans in the End Zone - Has 5 more targets in the end zone (37) than any other player since 2018, 14 EZ rec (3rd)
Godwin & Evans - Both WRs rank in the top 6 in receptions on intermediate targets (10-19 air yards) since 2019
> Top 6: Julio Jones (55), Evans (48), Keenan Allen (46), Tyler Boyd (46), Calvin Ridley (42), Godwin (40)
Bucs WRs on Post Routes - Godwin and Evans both rank in the top 5 in targets on post routes since 2019
> Post Route Targets (since 2019): Allen Robinson (23), Mike Evans & Kenny Golladay (19), Godwin & Tyler Boyd (17)
> Chris Godwin (since 2019): 106 Post routes run, 12 more than the next closest player, teammate Mike Evans (94)
(+) Without Godwin - Brady has not been as efficient targeting the short to intermediate without Godwin on the field
> Brady (0-19 air-yards) - Godwin ON: 65/86 (75.6%), +0.46 EPA/Att | Godwin OFF: 81/120 (67.5%), +0.24 EPA/Att
Scotty Miller - The target on 4 of Brady’s 5 most improbable completions & longest passes by air distance this season
> 33-yd TD to Miller in Wk 7 was Brady’s longest completion by air distance (55.5 yds) since Wk 1, 2017 (54-yd to B. Cooks)
Gronkowski Strictly Tight End - 91% of snaps aligned tight this season, aligned tight on 64% of snaps in 2018 w/NE
> Gronkowski Wide/Slot Alignment - 2018: 36 targets, 21 rec, 344 yards, 2 TD | 2020: 5 targets, 2 rec, 17 yards, 2 TD
> Both of Gronkowski’s receptions from wide/slot alignment this season have been TDs in the red zone (5 & 12 yards)
> Gronkowki’s burst off the LOS remains stable (avg top speed within 1 second of a route) - 2018: 8.41 MPH | 2020: 8.40
Without Michael Thomas - Thomas targeted on 32% of routes in 2019 (highest among WR, min. 300 routes)
> Since 2016: Drew Brees holds onto the ball longer (2.69 sec) with Thomas off the field, compared to on-field (2.51 sec)
Thomas on Slants - A considerable amount of Thomas' production in 2019 in the short area came on slant routes
> NFL Ranks in 2019 (Slant Routes): 29 receptions (1st), 299 yards (1st), 3 TD (T-1st), 162 yards after catch (1st)
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Taysom Hill’s Versatility - Hill has 30+ snaps at every skill position alignment in his career, aligning tight the most
> Snaps by Alignment (Career) - 40 backfield (8%), 120 slot (23%), 74 wide (14%), 162 tight (32%), 116 QB (23%)
Todd Bowles’ Blitz - 5th consecutive season a Bowles-coached defense has ranked in the top 6 of blitz rate (42%, 3rd)
> Bowles Blitz Rates - 2019 (TB): 42% (2nd) | 2018 (NYJ): 35% (5th) | 2017 (NYJ): 36% (6th) | 2016 (NYJ): 42% (2nd)
> The Buccaneers lead the NFL in INT (7), sacks (20), and sack rate (14.9%) on blitzes in 2020 | 36.6% pressure rate (3rd)
Bucs DB Blitz - The Buccaneers have 3 of the 20 DBs league-wide with 20+ pass rushes this season
> Antonie Winfield Jr. 4 pressures, 2 sacks on 25 pass rushes, leads all DBs with 2 turnovers forced by pressure
> Jordan Whitehead: 5 QB pressures, 2 sacks on 21 pass rushes | Sean Murphy-Bunting: 4 QB pressures on 21 pass rushes
> The Buccaneers defense has been most effective with Whitehead blitzing: 57.1% pressure rate, 14.3% sack rate
Ndamukong Suh - 60 QB pressures since the start of 2019, 4th-most among interior DL in that span
> Top 5 (among IDL): A. Donald (109), C. Heyward (64), C. Campbell (61), N. Suh (60), DeForest Buckner (58)
Shaq Barrett Breakout Continues - Barrett has 34 QB pressures through 8 games this season (T-3rd in NFL)
> Barrett had more QB pressures in 2019 (68) than in the previous 3 seasons combined (60)
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2016: 12.6% | 2017: 12.7% | 2018: 7.3% | 2019: 13.4% | 2020: 14.2% (7th, min. 120 rushes)
> Since 2019: 9 turnovers caused by pressure (FR or INT), T-most in NFL in that span (Bud Dupree)
Devin White Blitzing - The Buccaneers pass rush has been especially effective when Devin White blitzes
> TB (with White Blitzing): 43.5% pressure rate, 17.4% sack rate | (White in Coverage): 29.5% pressure rate, 6.4% sack rate
> White: 13 pressures, 5 sacks on 69 pass rushes | 18.8% QBP rate (2nd in NFL, min. 60 pass rushes), 7.2% sack rate (1st)
> Most pressures by off-ball LB (2020): White (13), D. Davis (9), B. Wagner (9), D. Jones (7), F. Warner (7)
Lavonte David’s Range - David has the 2nd-most hustle stops (11) in the NFL this season, White is tied for 3rd (9)
> Top 5 in Hustle Stops: Roquan Smith (12), David (11), White (9), Kenneth Murray (9), 4 players tied (8)
Carlton Davis - Has allowed a 47.5 passer rating this season (2nd-lowest among outside CB, min. 150 cov. snaps)
> Davis (2020): 5.0 yards/target (2nd-lowest in NFL among outside CB, min. 30 targets)
> Davis (2020): 1.0 yards/coverage snap this season (12th-lowest among outside CB, min. 150 cov. snaps)
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Arians Formations - Arians has used trips and bunch formations at top 3 rates in every season as a HC since 2016
> Trips Formations: 2016 (ARI): 71% (1st) | 2017 (ARI): 62% (1st) | 2019 (TB): 59% (1st) | 2020 (TB): 59% (1st)
> Bunch Formations: 2016 (ARI): 16% (1st) | 2017 (ARI): 15% (3rd) | 2019 (TB): 19% (1st) | 2020 (TB): 23% (1st)
Lattimore Matchup - Lattimore has shadowed Evans for 60%+ of routes in all 6 matchups in his career (since 2017)
> Lattimore missed Week 11, 2019 game vs TB (P.J. Williams aligned across from Evans on 40 of 50 routes, 80%)
> (2017) - Week 7: 60%, Week 17: 67% | (2018) - Week 1: 91%, Week 14: 79% | (2019) - Week 5: 75% | (2020) - Week 1: 78%
> Lattimore didn’t allow a reception as nearest defender to Evans in 3 of the 6 games
> Lattimore as Nearest Defender vs Evans (career): 9 receptions, 197 yards, TD, INT on 18 targets
Marcus Davenport - The Saints have a 30.7% pressure rate with Davenport on the field since 2019 (24.8% without)
> Davenport (2020): 11 pressures on 60 pass rushes (18.3% pressure rate, 4th in NFL min. 50 pass rushes)
Malcolm Jenkins Blitzing - Jenkins has blitzed more frequently and effectively with the Saints than with the Eagles
> PHI (2016-19): Blitzed on 10% of pass snaps, 10.3% pressure rate, 2.2% sack rate
> NO (2020): Blitzed on 15% of pass snaps (4th among DB, min. 100 snaps), 15.0% pressure rate, 5.0% sack rate
> Jenkins has aligned on the LOS on 28% of snaps with the Saints (only DB over 24%, min. 100 snaps) | PHI: 14%
Trey Hendrickson - Hendrickson has the 4th-highest pressure rate (23.3%) on 3rd down in 2020 (min. 30 pass rushes)
Revisiting Week 1 Matchup (Saints 34, Buccaneers 23)
Brees vs Blitz - The Bucs defense blitzed on 42% of dropbacks (no other opponent has blitzed Brees over 22% in 2020)
> Brees got rid of the ball quicker against the blitz (2.59 sec) than no blitz (2.73 sec), pressured twice as often vs blitz
> Brees vs Blitz: 6/12, 40 yards, TD, -0.36 EPA/DB (23.1% QBP Rate) | No Blitz: 12/18, 120 yards, TD, +0.11 EPA/DB (11.1%)
Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore - Lattimore shadowed Evans on 29 of his 37 routes (78%), 52% in press coverage
> Lattimore allowed 0 receptions on 2 targets as the nearest defender vs Evans (Evans’ only TD came against D. Davis)
