Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 16 SNF PREVIEW: TITANS AT PACKERS
Ryan Tannehill’s Second Chance in Tennessee
Tannehill on Play Action - Since taking over starting role in 2019, has been among most efficient QB on play action
> Tannehill on PA (since 2019): 11.4 YPA (2nd), 127.3 passer rating (2nd), +0.37 EPA/dropback (1st), +4.4% CPOE (7th)
> 2020: 10.1 YPA, 3.3 avg separation, 19.5% pressure rate on play action | No PA: 7.0 YPA, 2.7 avg sep, 28.4% QBP rate
Targeting In-Breaking Routes - Among the top QBs this season when targeting slant, in, cross, post & angle routes
> In-Breaking Routes (2020 QB Ranks): 15 TD (3rd), 10.3 YPA (2nd), 129.3 passer rating (1st), +0.62 EPA/dropback (1st)
Tannehill to A.J. Brown - Brown has been the target on Tannehill’s four most improbable completions with the Titans
> Week 17 vs HOU, 2019: 47-yard pass, 6.2% completion probability (Most improbable completion since 2019)
> Week 9 vs CHI, 2020: 40-yard TD, 15.2% completion probability (6th-most improbable completion in 2020)
> Week 14 vs JAX, 2020: 37-yard TD, 22.2% comp probability | Week 9 vs CAR, 2019: 35-yard pass, 25.1% comp probability
Recent Passing Efficiency - NFL-best +9.4% comp pct over expected (CPOE) over last 3 games (Weeks 7-12: -3.9%)
> Weeks 1-6 (5-0 record): +5.7% CPOE | Weeks 7-12 (3-3 record): -3.9% CPOE | Weeks 13-15 (2-1 record): +9.4% CPOE
> 2019: Lead all qualified QB in CPOE (+8.0%), highest by any qualified QB over last 4 seasons | 2020: +2.9% (8th among QB)
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Henry by Month - Since 2018, Henry performs better relative to expectation as each month of the season progresses
> Henry RYOE (since 2018) - September: -97 (Lowest) | October: +115 (5th) | November: +294 (1st) | December: +513 (1st)
Henry in December - Henry leads the NFL in rushing production in December since 2018 by a significant amount
> Henry in December (since 2018): 1,596 yards (Carson: 1,071), 17 TD (6 players: 9), +513 RYOE (Barkley: +250)
> Most RYOE in a Demember (Single Season) - Henry (2018): +247, Henry (2019): +139, Henry (2020): +127
Henry Beating Expectations - Ranks 1st in the NFL with +825 rushing yards over expected since 2018 (Chubb, +786)
> Henry RYOE by season - 2018: +213 rushing yards over expected (3rd) | 2019: +305 (1st) | 2020: +303 (1st)
> Top 5 in RYOE (2019): Henry (+305), N. Chubb (+270), C. McCaffrey (+214), J. Jacobs (+207), C. Carson (+155)
> Wks 1-5, 2020: -61 RYOE (2nd-lowest in NFL) | Wks 6-10, 2020: +163 RYOE (1st) | Wks 11-15, 2020: +201 RYOE (1st)
Henry vs Stacked Box - Henry has 582 rushing yards, 10 TD against stacked boxes this season (both lead NFL)
> Henry vs Stacked Box (2020): 96 carries (1st), 6.1 YPC (6th), 10 TD (1st) | (Ranks among RB, min 10 att. vs stacked box)
> Henry had 571 rushing yards (243 more than any other player) and 12 rushing TD (5 more) vs stacked boxes in 2019
> GB Defense: Allowed +0.31 RYOE per carry this season (22nd in NFL)
Henry Inside the Tackles - Henry has been most effective rushing inside the tackles this season
> Inside the Tackles (110 carries): 6.0 YPC, 4.0 expected YPC, +231 RYOE (2nd), +2.2 RYOE/carry, 9 TD (1st)
> Outside the Tackles (211 carries), 4.8 YPC, 4.5 xYPC, +72 RYOE (9th), +0.4 RYOE/carry, 6 TD (4th).
A.J. Brown’s Efficiency - Brown averages 2.8 receiving yards/route since 2019 (3rd among WR, min. 400 routes)
> Top 5 (since 2019): M. Thomas (2.8), J. Jefferson (2.8), A.J. Brown (2.8), D. Adams (2.7), S. Diggs (2.6)
Brown by Alignment - Brown aligns in the slot on 14% of routes this season, wide on 86% of routes
> Brown (2020) - Slot: 2.9 yds of average separation, 3.3 yds/route | Wide: 2.4 yds of average separation, 2.4 yds/route
YAC Over Expected - A.J. Brown leads all WR in YAC Over Expected (+418) since entering the league in 2019
> Top 5 WR YACOE (since ‘19): A.J. Brown (+418), C. Kupp (+256), C. Godwin (+244), T. McLaurin (+234), D. Samuel (+227)
Brown on Play Action - Brown has averaged 4.8 yards/route on plays with play action since 2019 (1st, min. 100 routes)
> Brown has 1,042 receiving yards on play action passes since entering league in 2019 (134 more than any other player)
> A majority of Brown’s play action career production has come on in-breaking routes: 31/42, 862 yards, 4 TD on 115 routes
> Brown has over 300 more yards on in-breaking routes off play action (862) than the next closest player (D. Hopkins: 526)
A.J. Brown Route Tendencies - Targeted more often on in-breaking routes (29%) than out-breaking routes (21%)
> In-Breaking Routes (2020): 133 routes, 38 targets, 28 rec, 515 yards, 6 TD, +5.5% CROE, +1.07 EPA/target
> Out-Breaking Routes (2020): 76 routes, 16 targets, 9 rec, 120 yards, TD, INT, -2.8% CROE, -0.37 EPA/target
> In-Breaking routes include cross, slant, in, angle, post routes | Out-Breaking routes include out, flat and corner routes
Jonnu Smith After the Catch - Averages 7.5 YAC per reception since 2019, 1st among all TEs (min. 40 receptions)
> Top 5 (min. 40 receptions): Jonnu Smith (7.5), Noah Fant (7.2), George Kittle (7.2), Dawson Knox (6.7), Darren Fells (6.4)
Struggling Pass Rush - Biggest league-wide decline in team pressure rate from 2019 to 2020 (33.0% to 22.9%, -10.1%)
> Team Pressure Rate by Season - 2019: 33.0% (1st) | 2020: 22.9% (25th) | -10.1% team pass rush differential (32nd)
Packers Pass Rush Trio - Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith & Kenny Clark have all underperformed compared to 2019
> Za’Darius Smith - 2019: 73 pressures, 15.2% QBP rate (13.5 sacks) | 2020: 45 pressures, 10.6% QBP rate (11.5 sacks)
> Preston Smith - 2019: 45 pressures, 12.2% QBP rate (12.0 sacks) | 2020: 25 pressures, 8.6% QBP rate (4.0 sacks)
> Kenny Clark - 2019: 50 pressures, 10.7% QBP rate (6.0 sacks) | 2020: 17 pressures, 6.8% QBP rate (2.0 sacks)
Jaire Alexander Island - Shadowed a receiver for over 65% of their routes in 5 games this season (none since Week 8)
> Alexander didn’t allow a reception in coverage to the shadowed receiver in 3 of the 5 games
Alexander in Coverage - Alexander has allowed 4.9 yards/target this season (4th among DB, min. 40 targets)
> Alexander has forced a tight window on 34.9% of his targets (3rd among DB, min. 40 targets), 52.4% comp pct (8th)
> Alexander has not allowed a TD as the nearest defender since Week 1 vs MIN, -13.7 EPA when targeted, -5.7% CPOE
> Since returning from injury in Wk 11 - First 2 Games - 10 rec, 102 yds (19 targets) | Last 3 Games: 5 rec, 47 yds (14 targets)
Aaron Rodgers By the Numbers
Rodgers Deep - Rodgers has thrown deep at his highest rate in five seasons (15.0%, 2nd in NFL), and has been efficient
> Rodgers (Deep): 28 completions (1st), 67 attempts (2nd), 1,094 yards (1st), 10 TD (T-3rd), 0 INT, +62.2 Total EPA (1st)
> Rodgers throws 77% of his deep passes outside the numbers (4th-highest among QB), including 7 of 10 deep TD
Rodgers by Air Distance - 8 completions traveling 50+ yards of air distance, 2nd in NFL (behind Russell Wilson, 9)
> Top 5: Russell Wilson (9), Aaron Rodgers (8), Justin Herbert & Kyler Murray (6), Josh Allen (5) | Tannehill: 2 (T-10th)
Low Pressure Against - Since 2019, Rodgers is the only qualified QB without an INT under pressure (9 TD, 0 INT)
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2016: 18.6% (4th) | 2017: 20.4% (5th) | 2018: 21.1% (6th) | 2019: 18.5% (3rd) | 2020: 16.6% (2nd)
> Rodgers has been pressured on less than 21% of dropbacks in 13 of 14 games this season (33.3% QBP rate vs TB in Wk 6)
Rodgers In-Rhythm - Rodgers is throwing “in-rhythm” (2.5 - 4 seconds time to throw) more often and efficiently in 2020
> Rodgers (2017-19): 35.8% rate (last), 9.0 YPA (10th), 12.0 air yards/att (4th), +0.19 EPA/dropback (7th), +0.6% CPOE
> Rodgers (2020): 40.9% rate (28th), 10.5 YPA (2nd), 11.8 air yards/att (5th), +0.51 EPA/dropback (1st), +6.8% CPOE (2nd)
> Total EPA “In-Rhythm” (2020): A. Rodgers (+102.0), P. Mahomes (+64.9), B. Mayfield (+63.2), R. Wilson (+60.3)
Rodgers Extending Plays - Rodgers has the most TD passes (7) without an INT when time to throw is 4+ seconds
> Rodgers on Extended Dropbacks (4+ seconds): 26/60, 327 yards, 7 TD (2nd), 0 INT, -2.9 Total EPA (4th among QB)
> Rodgers avoids taking sacks when holding for 4+ seconds, 17.8% sack rate, 5th-lowest among QB (NFL Avg: 29.9%)
Play Action Rodgers - Rodgers has used play action more often under Matt LaFleur, and its paid dividends this season
> Rodgers Play Action Rate - 2016: 18% (27th) | 2016: 18% (26th) | 2018: 19% (29th) | 2019: 24% (16th) | 2020: 28% (11th)
> Rodgers on PA - 2020: 71.3% comp pct (8th), +0.38 EPA/dropback (1st) | 2016-19: 63.1% comp pct, +0.00 EPA/dropback
> Rodgers Play Action (2020): 17 TD (1st), 0 INT, 133.1 passer rating (1st), 10.8% pressure rate (1st), +53.5 Total EPA (1st)
PA in Red Zone - Rodgers has as many play action TD (17) this season as he had in the previous four combined (17)
> Rodgers has thrown 14 of his 17 play action TD in the red zone this season | Red Zone PA: 19/22, 91 yards, 14 TD
Rodgers on the Run - Aaron Rodgers has thrown 33 TD passes on the run (8+ MPH) since 2016, 2nd-most in the NFL
> Rodgers On the Run (2020): 51/82, 534 yards, 7 TD (T-4th), 0 INT, +6.9% CPOE (1st), +0.32 EPA/dropback (1st)
Targeting Out-Breaking Routes - Rodgers leads all qualified QB in comp pct (82.3%) on out-breaking routes this season
> Out-Breaking Pass Attempts (2020): 19 TD (1st), 82.3% comp pct (1st), +7.5% CPOE (2nd), +64.1 Total EPA (2nd)
> 2020: Rodgers is 30/35, 216 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT (+17.9% CPOE) when targeting Davante Adams on out-breaking routes
Difficult Pass Attempts - Rodgers has been the most efficient QB this season when completion probability is under 50%
> Comp Probability < 50% (2020): 11.2 YPA (1st), +6.9% CPOE (3rd), +46.8 Total EPA (1st, next closest Stafford, +22.2)
> Comp Probability < 50% (2020): 112.3 passer rating (1st), 15 TD (T-3rd), 23.3 AY/A (1st), +0.45 EPA/DB (1st)
> Only 45% of Rodgers’ most difficult passes target a receiver in a tight window (lowest TW rate among qualified QB)
Where Davante Adams Excels as a Receiver
Red Zone Threat - Adams has been targeted at a top 5 rate in the red zone for the fourth consecutive season
> Red Zone Targets/Route - 2017: 44% (4th, min. 20 rz routes) | 2018: 44% (1st) | 2019: 48% (2nd) | 2020: 41% (2nd)
Adams Efficiency - Adams leads all wide receivers averaging 3.0 yards per route this season (min. 150 routes)
> Top 5 WR Yards/Route (min. 150 routes): D. Adams (3.0), C. Davis (3.0), J. Jefferson (2.8), D. Hopkins (2.7), J. Jones (2.7)
Adams Outside the Numbers - Since 2016, Adams leads the NFL in TDs outside the numbers (32), 2nd in rec & yards
> Outside Numbers (Ranks since 2016): 226 receptions (2nd, Hopkins 257), 3,105 yards (2nd, Hopkins 3,352), 32 TD (1st)
> Most TD Outside Numbers (since 2016): D. Adams (32), M. Evans (26), T. Hill (26), A. Thielen (23), T. Lockett (22)
Adams Diverse Route Tree - 10+ targets on 8 different routes this season (no other player has more than 6 routes)
> Targets by Route: Screen (24), Out (21), Go (19), In (15), Cross (12), Hitch (12), Slant (12), Flat (10), Corner (4), Post (2)
Adams in the Slot - Adams has aligned more in the slot this season than in each of the previous 4 seasons
> Adams Pct of Snaps in the Slot by Season - 2016: 17% | 2017: 15% | 2018: 18% | 2019: 21% | 2020: 24%
> Adams leads the NFL this season in receiving TD from slot alignment (7), had 7 TD from slot over 2018 & 2019 combined
Release vs Press - Adams beats press coverage with lateral quickness, getting to full speed later on in his route
> Avg Top Speed vs Press (min. 50 routes): 6.77 MPH within 1 sec (3rd-slowest), 15.12 MPH within 3 sec (10th-quickest)
> Adams is targeted at the 2nd-highest rate (36.9%) vs press coverage this season (min. 50 routes) | 4.5 yards/route (2nd)
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Aaron Jones Success Inside Tackles - +241 rushing yards over expected on inside runs since 2019, 3rd in NFL
> Top 5 (since 2019): R. Jones (+261), D. Henry (+251), A. Jones (+241), C. Hyde (+173), C. McCaffrey (+152)
Packers Motion - The Packers rank 6th in shift/motion usage (59%) this season, tied for league-lead in motion TD (37)
> The Packers rank 1st in the NFL in motion success rate (57.3%), just ahead of KC (56.5%) | Tied w/KC in motion TD (37)
> Most TD using Shift/Motion (2020): Packers (37), Chiefs (37), Titans (30), Ravens (29), 49ers (27)
Backs in Motion - Matt LaFluer has used shifts and motions to move RB Tyler Ervin all over the formation this season
> Tyler Ervin: Has gone in motion/shifted on 74 of 133 snaps this season (56%, 1 of 2 players over 50%, min. 50 snaps)
> Top 5 RB Rush Yards (w/Shift-Motion): A. Jones (93), Elliott (89), Montgomery (79), Carson (74), Edwards-Helaire (63)
MVS as Deep Threat - Valdes-Scantling has caught Rodgers five-longest completions by air distance this season
> Wk 9 vs SF: 52-yd TD (Air Dist: 60.3 yds, 6th-longest completion this season) | Wk 1 vs MIN: 45-yd TD (AD: 54.8 yds)
> Wk 10 vs JAX: 78-yd TD (AD: 54.6 yds) | Wk 11 vs IND: 47 yd rec (AD: 53.8 yds) | Wk 2 vs DET: 41 yd rec (AD: 52.6 yds)
Struggling Pass Rush - The Titans rank 30th in team pressure rate (20.6%), none of top defenders have produced
> Top 6 in QBP all < 10% QBP rate - Landry 9.1%, Simmons 5.1%, Clowney 8.1%, Roberson 8.2%, Crawford 4.9%, Jones 3.6%
Jadeveon Clowney - 8.1% pressure rate this season (5-year low), pressure rate below avg EDGE in 5 straight seasons
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2016: 8.9% | 2017: 9.5% | 2018: 8.9% | 2019: 8.8% | 2020: 8.1% (EDGE Avg: 9.7%)
Safeties Struggle in Coverage - Kevin Byard (112.4 passer rating allowed) & Kenny Vaccaro (108.7) have regressed
> Kevin Byard: First season of his career allowing more TD than INT (5 TD, 1 INT) | 2016-19: 43.7 passer rating allowed
> Kenny Vaccaro: First season w/Titans (3 seasons) allowing a positive CPOE when targeted as nearest defender (+1.7%)
Malcolm Butler - 2nd-most targeted player as the nearest defender in NFL this season (98), T-3rd most rec allowed (60)
> Butler has been targeted 53 more times than the next closest Titans DB (Kevin Byard, 45)
