Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 17 SNF PREVIEW: WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA
Revisiting Week 1 (Washington 27, Eagles 17)
Wentz Hits Reagor Deep - 55-yard pass to Reagor traveled 57.4 yards of air distance (3rd-longest by PHI since 2017)
> All 3 of the Eagles longest passes by air distance since 2017 have come vs Washington
> Longest: Wentz 64-yard TD to Mack Hollins (61.2 yards air distance) in Week 7 vs WAS, 2017
> 2nd-longest: Wentz 51-yard TD to DeSean Jackson (58.4 yards air distance) in Week 1 vs WAS, 2019
Washington Comeback - The Eagles win probability peaked at 93% in Q2, didn’t fall below 50% until the end of Q3
Deep Pass Rush Dominates - Washington had 6 different players with 3+ pressures (T-most in a game this season)
> Matthew Ioannidis (5), Chase Young (5), Jonathan Allen (5), Jon Bostic (5), Ryan Kerrigan (4), Daron Payne (3)
Alex Smith by the Numbers
Alex Smith by Air Yards - Smith averages 5.3 air yards per attempt this season, shortest of any qualified QB
> Highest Behind LOS Pct: A. Smith (28%), A. Rodgers (24%), J. Herbert (22%), C. Newton (22%), T. Bridgewater (21%)
> Smith has been efficient in limited passes of 10+ air yards - 23/42, 551 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, +7.3% CPOE, +26.5 Total EPA
Since Return from Injury - Smith throws from inside the pocket at a higher rate, similar distance per dropback (in yards)
> Inside Pocket % - 2016: 90% | 2017: 87% | 2018: 88% | 2020: 92% | Distance/DB - 2016: 5.0 | 2017: 5.4 | 2018: 6.0 | 2020: 5.1
> 2018:18+ MPH in 9 of 10 games (20.29 MPH top speed) | 2020: 18+ MPH in 0 of 7 games (17.08 MPH top speed)
Smith Reliance on WR Screens - Since Week 9, Smith is T-4th in WR Screen completions (24) and 5th in attempts (25)
> Since Week 9, Smith targets a WR screen on 12% attempts (1st in NFL), double the NFL average target rate (6%)
> Isaiah Wright: Ranks T-6th in WR screen targets since Week 9 (8), behind Adams, Woods, Di. Johnson, AJ Brown, K. Allen
> WR Screen Target Distribution (w/Smith): Isaiah Wright 8, Terry McLaurin 6, J.D. McKissic 5, Cam Sims 4, Steven Sims 2
Unreliable Receivers - Smith has had the highest percentage of his passes dropped among qualified QB this season
> Highest Drop Rate: A. Smith (8.2%), B. Roethlisberger (7.9%), A. Dalton (7.3%), L. Jackson (7.3%), D. Haskins (6.6%)
Taylor Heinicke - Held onto the ball longer (3.00s) in relief of Haskins in Week 16 (Smith: 2.65s, Haskins: 2.55s in 2020)
> Despite holding onto the ball longer, Heinicke was pressured on only 2 of 20 dropbacks (10.0% pressure rate)
Heinicke Vertical - By nature of game script (all 20 dropbacks came with <25% win prob), Heinicke threw downfield
> Heinicke: 13.6 air yds/att, targeted vertical routes on 32% of passes, hitches on 32% (all are double other WAS QBs)
Washington Offense vs Eagles Defense
McLaurin In-Breaking & Short - McLaurin leads the NFL in receiving yards on in-breaking routes this season (628)
> McLaurin In-Breaking Routes: 27 of 36 receptions between 0-9 air yards, 3rd in the NFL in YAC (290) on in-breaking routes
> Crossers: 79 routes, 20 tgt, 11 rec, 216 yds, TD (117 YAC) | Slant: 63 routes, 24 tgt, 17 rec, 225 yds (4th), TD (126 YAC)
> McLaurin has been targeted on more than a third of his slant routes this season (38.1% target rate, NFL Avg: 25.2%)
McLaurin After the Catch - +155 YAC over expected this season, 2nd-most among WR (3rd in NFL, Kamara +183)
> McLaurin (Rank among WR): 1,078 receiving yards (10th), 505 yards after catch (5th), +155 YAC over expected (2nd)
> Top 5 YACOE (among WR): A.J. Brown +177, T. McLaurin +155, J. Jefferson +148, D. Samuel (+146), C. Kupp (+137)
Leaning on McLaurin - McLaurin has accounted for 35%+ of Washington’s air yards in both of his seasons in his career
> 2019: McLaurin accounted for 37.1% of team air yards (6th in NFL) | 2020: Accounted for 35.6% of team air yards (7th)
Antonio Gibson - Gibson has been a very effective rusher in the red zone, gaining +5 first downs over expected (T-2nd)
> Gibson in Red Zone: 28 carries, 98 yards, 9 TD, +4 RYOE, 50.0% of rushes exceed expectation (3rd, min. 15 carries)
> Gibson has a 60.7% success rate on red zone carries, 1st in NFL (min. 15 red zone carries), +14.0 EPA (2nd)
J.D. McKissic - Targeted at a significantly higher rate by Alex Smith (29%) than other QBs this season (20%)
> McKissic: Targeted on 51 of 176 routes (29.0%) with Smith at QB, 51 of 243 routes with other players at QB (20.1%)
> Top Target Rate among RB (200+ routes): Kamara (33.1%), N. Hines (28.7%), McKissic (28.0%), A. Ekeler (27.8%)
Run-Pass Ratio by RB - Run-heavy w/Peyton Barber (69% run), pass-heavy w/McKissic (73% pass), Gibson (50/50)
Eagles Blitz Averse - The Eagles have blitzed at a below average rate every season of Jim Schwartz’s tenure as DC
> Blitz Rate (by Season) - 2016: 23.9% (27th) | 2017: 26% (20th) | 2018: 21% (28th) | 2019: 27% (19th) | 2020: 23% (25th)
Eagles Front Four - The Eagles rank in the top 5 in pressure rate on non-blitzes in 5 straight seasons under Schwartz
> QBP % (Non-Blitzes) - 2016: 29.5% (4th) | 2017: 30.1% (5th) | 2018: 28.3% (2nd) | 2019: 30.4% (2nd) | 2020: 27.4% (5th)
> The Eagles have also been effective on blitzes this season (35.5%, 4th in NFL) | Overall Pressure Rate: 29.3% (5th)
Deep Pass Rush - The Eagles are the only defense in the NFL with 5 players with 20+ pressures this season
> Pressures by Player: Brandon Graham (35), Derek Barnett (28), Javon Hargrave (25), Josh Sweat (24), Fletcher Cox (20)
Specialized Edges - The Eagles keep Barnett & Sweat on the right, Graham on left (from Defensive Perspective)
> Highest Right Edge Alignment Rate (min. 200 snaps): Barnett (94%), C. Lawson (92%), M. Addison (92%), Sweat (90%)
> Highest Left Edge Alignment Rate (min. 200 snaps): R. Kerrigan (94%), Graham (94%), T. Murphy (93%), C. Jordan (91%)
Fletcher Cox Regression - Pressure rate by season has sharply declined in each of the last 4 seasons (5.2% in 2020)
> QBP Rate (among iDL, min. 200 pass rushes) - 2017: 12.3% (4th) | 2018: 11.4% (3rd) | 2019: 7.8% (23rd) | 2020: 5.2% (46th)
> Average pass rush get-off has also regressed - 2017: 0.88 seconds | 2018: 0.96 sec | 2019: 0.95 sec | 2020: 0.99 sec
Quick Burst - Graham and Sweat rank are tied for 9th-quickest avg get off among EDGE (0.80s, min. 200 pass rushes)
> Hargrave: 0.75s avg pass rush get-off in two consecutive games (T-5th quickest by iDL this season, min. 20 pass rushes)
Darius Slay Shadow - Slay has shadowed receivers for 65%+ of their routes in 5 games this season (T-4th most in NFL)
> Most Shadow Games (65%+ of routes): W. Jackson (8), J. Bradberry (8), B. Roby (6), Slay (5), 3 other players (5)
> vs. McLaurin (Week 1): Aligned across on 26 of 34 routes (76%), allowed 1 reception, 21 yards on 3 targets
Jalen Hurts vs Carson Wentz
Formation Tendencies by Eagles QB - More shotgun, trips formations and four-wide sets with Hurts at QB than Wentz
> QB Alignment Tendencies - Hurts lines up in shotgun on 89% of plays, 8% under center, 3% pistol (Wentz: 77%/23%/0.5%)
> Receiver Alignment by QB - Hurts: 62% w/receivers in trips, 12% four-wide | Wentz: 52% in trips, 9% four-wide
> Less Pre-Snap Movement - Only 31% of Hurts QB snaps use shift/motion (would be lowest rate of any team) | Wentz: 43%
Hurts Long Time to Throw - Only QB with a time to throw over 3 seconds on non-play action dropbacks (3.03 seconds)
> Longest TTT (Non-PA, min. 100 DB): Hurts (3.03 sec), Mayfield (2.93 sec), Allen (2.92), Mahomes (2.90), L. Jackson (2.86)
> Hurts: 39.1% pressure rate on non-play action dropbacks, 2nd-highest rate among QB (min. 100 DB) | D. Jones: 41.5%
> Carson Wentz: Got rid of the ball faster on non-PA dropbacks (2.78 seconds), still pressured at 7th-highest rate (32.9%)
Hurts More Effective with Play Fake - 136.3 passer rating on play action, 73.4 passer rating without play action
> Play Action: 18/25 (72.0%, +9.9% CPOE), 11.4 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT, 136.3 passer rating (+0.34 EPA/dropback)
> No Play Action: 52/103 (50.5%, -4.1% CPOE), 6.8 YPA, 4 TD, 3 INT, 73.4 passer rating (-0.06 EPA/dropback)
Below Average Play Action Usage - Hurts uses play action on 21% of dropbacks (NFL Avg: 24%) in part due to trailing
> Hurts uses play action on 21% of dropbacks, less than Carson Wentz (27%) and the average QB (24%)
> Trailing in games = Less PA - 58% of Hurts' pass dropbacks have been with less than 25% win probability (Wentz: 39%)
> Highest % dropbacks < 25% Win Prob (min. 100 att): G. Minshew (66%), J. Flacco (65%), D. Haskins (63%), J. Hurts (58%)
Hurts & Wentz by Route Tendencies - Hurts favors out-breaking & outside the numbers, Wentz in-breaking & seams
> Hurts: 37% of attempts target out-breaking routes, 23% in-breaking, 59% outside the numbers, 26% seams
> Wentz: 29% of attempts target out-breaking routes, 32% in-breaking, 39% outside the numbers, 48% seams
Tight Windows Throws - Hurts has completed only 3 of 19 passes in tight windows (15.8% comp pct, -14.4% CPOE)
> Hurts: 3/19 (15.8%), 2.6 YPA, 1 INT (-14.4% CPOE) | Wentz: 30/83 (36.1%), 5.9 YPA, 4 TD, 3 INT (-1.4% CPOE)
> Hurts: 15.8% completion pct in tight windows ranks 42nd out of 43 QBs (min. 100 att), ahead of only Sam Darnold (9.3%)
Hurts More Explosive in Run Game - Hurts reaches 15+ MPH on 56% of 55 rush attempts, Wentz on 27% of 52 att
> Hurts reached a top speed of 20.48 MPH on a 5-yard scramble in Week 14 (1 of 7 QB to reach 20+ MPH as ball carrier)
Eagles Offense vs Washington Defense
Miles Sanders - Responsible for 3 of the top 10 rushes over expectation this season (all exceeded +60 RYOE)
> Week 5 vs PIT, Q1 (0:19): 74-yard TD run | Expected Rush Yards: 4 | Rush Yards Over Expected: +70 (6th)
> Week 14 vs NO, Q2 (1:47): 82-yard TD | Expected Rush Yards: 12 | Rush Yards Over Expected: +70 (8th)
> Week 6 vs BAL, Q3 (7:33): 74-yard run | Expected Rush Yards: 10 | Rush Yards Over Expected: +64 (10th)
Wide Formations - The Eagles have employed the 2nd-most spaced out formations this season (by widest 2 players)
> Top 5 (2020): Dolphins (28.7 yards), Eagles (28.3 yards), Cardinals (28.0 yards), Bills (27.9 yards), Cowboys (27.9 yards)
12 Personnel Base - The Eagles usage of 12 personnel has fluctuated based on Goedert & Ertz’s availability
> Eagles 12 Personnel Rate - Weeks 1-2: 68% (1st) | Weeks 3-6: 26% (5th) | Week 7-8: 8% (28th) | Weeks 10-16: 38% (1st)
Eagles WR Rotation - Since Alshon Jeffery returned in Week 12, no wide receiver has played over 75% of snaps
> Eagles WR Playtime (since Week 12): G. Ward (71%), J. Reagor (62%), A. Jeffery (49%), T. Fulgham (34%)
> Greg Ward is the only Eagles WR to play over 75% of snaps in a game since Week 12 (Week 16 vs DAL: 91% playtime)
Pressure with Four - Washington has the 7th-highest pressure rate on non-blitzes this season (26.2%)
Chase Young Acclimating - Young has had multiple pressures in 6 of his last 7 games (just 1 in first 7 games)
Young Playmaking Ability - Young has forced 4 turnovers from pressure this season (T-4th most in NFL)
> Most Turnovers Forced by Pressure (2020): M. Garrett (7), S. Barrett (6), E. Ogbah (5), Young (4), 3 other players tied (4)
Jonathan Allen - Generated a 11.9% pressure rate this season (3rd-among interior DL, min. 200 pass rushes)
> Improved Pressure Rate in each of last 3 seasons as starter - 2018: 7.7% | 2019: 9.8% | 2020: 11.9% (3rd among IDL)
> Allen averages 0.95s to cross the LOS on pass rushes aligned as an iDL (T-6th quickest in NFL, min. 200 pass rushes)
Ryan Kerrigan Boom or Bust - Kerrigan has been able to maintain his sack rate, but his pressure rate has dropped off
> Pressure Rate (min. 200 pass rushes) - 2017: 13.9% (8th) | 2018: 11.8% (21st) | 2019: 9.3% (64th) | 2020: 7.2% (91st)
> Sack Rate (min. 200 pass rushes) - 2017: 3.4% (5th) | 2018: 3.1% (8th) | 2019: 2.1% (46th) | 2020: 2.6% (9th)
Kendall Fuller - Ranks 7th among wide CB in Total EPA allowed (-12.2) when targeted as nearest defender this season
> Fuller as Nearest Defender (2020): 65 targets, 37 rec, 362 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT (67.6 passer rating, 8th among wide CB)
> Improved from last season w/KC - 2019: 31.4% coverage success, 133.1 passer rating | 2020: 56.9%, 67.6 passer rating
> Tight Coverage (2020): Fuller has allowed 2.3 yards of separation on targets this season, 9th among wide CB (min. 30 tgts)
Landon Collins by Alignment - Aligning more at safety than in the box in his 2nd season w/Washington (51% safety)
> 2019: 39% safety, 41% box safety, 14% slot, 6% outside CB | 2020: 51% safety, 36% box safety, 11% slot, 2% outside CB
