Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 5 SNF PREVIEW (NBC): COLTS AT CHIEFS
Best of Colts Notes
Jacoby Brissett
- Jacoby Brissett (this season) has similar QB tendencies compared to Andrew Luck (last season):
> Brissett (2019): 2.71s avg TTT, 7.4 air yards/att, 96% of attempts inside box, 67% in 11 personnel
> Luck (2018): 2.64s avg TTT, 7.7 air yards/att, 95% of attempts inside box, 63% in 11 personnel
- Brissett vs the blitz: 14-25, 204 yards, 3 TD (122.3 passer rating, 6th-highest in NFL)
> Lowest pressure rate (12.0%), highest pressures evaded rate (33.0%) and has not been sacked vs the blitz
- Completed 5 of 11 pass attempts when targeting a receiver in the end zone this season
> 2017-18 (w/IND): Brissett completed just 2 of 23 end zone attempts (8.7% comp pct)
Colts Offense
- Using less 6-OL groupings this season (only 1 play) compared to last season (11%, 122 plays)
- Marlon Mack: 2.1 yards before close-in/rush on outside runs this season, 2nd among RBs
> Chiefs DEF: Allow 6.6 yards/rush on outside runs this season, 30th in NFL (39% stop pct, 31st in NFL)
Colts Defense
- Colts defense is designed to give up easy throws (Comp Pct Allowed: 74.0% | Expected: 69.1%)
> Opponents average 7.0 air yards per pass attempt, 7th-lowest in the NFL (throw deep on just 9% of attempts)
- The Colts defense has generated the 3rd-lowest pressure rate (19%) this season
> Mahomes has struggled under pressure this season: 12/32, 209 yards (6.5 avg), 1 TD, 0 INT, 71.0 passer rating
- Darius Leonard: Colts have generated just 1 sack on 125 pass plays without Leonard since 2018
> On-Field (590 pass plays): 46 sacks, 26% pressure rate | > Off-Field (125 pass plays): 1 sack, 15% pressure rate
> Leonard led the NFL in defensive stops (68) as a rookie in 2018 [tackle resulted in defensive successful play]
Best of Chiefs Notes
Patrick Mahomes
- Mahomes leads all QBs in deep completions, yards & TDs (20+ air yards) since the start of last season
> Completions: Mahomes (46), Wilson (42), Mayfield (35), Rodgers (33), Ryan (33)
> Pass Yards: Mahomes (1,715), Wilson (1,426), Rodgers (1,181), Ryan (1,110), Mayfield (1,075)
> Pass TD: Mahomes (19), Russell Wilson (15), Aaron Rodgers (12), Ben Roethlisberger (12), Kirk Cousins (12)
- 14 pass TD when “on the run” (8+ MPH) since 2018, most in NFL (next closest: Trubisky, 10)
> Mahomes averages 12.3 air yards/attempt when traveling 8+ MPH at pass, deepest among qualified QBs
- The Chiefs are 10-0 when Mahomes’ average snap to pass is less than 2.84 sec (3-3 when 2.99+ sec)
Travis Kelce
- Most receptions (30), yards (405) and TD (6) among TE from wide alignment since 2018
The Chiefs running game is significantly more effective when Kelce has been on the field since 2016
> On-Field (1,162 run plays): 4.7 ypc, 13% big runs (10+) | > Off-Field (215 run plays): 3.6 ypc, 8% big runs (10+)
Chiefs Offense
- Mecole Hardman: Open (3+ yards of separation) on 71% of targets this season, highest rate in NFL
- Demarcus Robinson: 18.2 air yards per target this season, 2nd-highest in NFL (min. 15 targets)
Chiefs Defense
- Have used at least 4 defensive lineman on 101 of 102 plays (4-2-5: 61% | 4-3-4: 31% | 4-1-6: 5%)
> 7 different Chiefs DL have played at least 35%+ of defensive snaps, T-most in NFL (Raiders, 7):
> Clark (81%), Jones (79%), Okafor (65%), D. Nnadi (45%), Ogbah (43%), Kpassagnon (41%), Williams (39%)
- Struggled to match last season’s pressure rate from the edge (2018: 20% | 2019: 13%)
- Tyrann Mathieu: Lowest tackle rate (5.8%) over his last 4 seasons due to higher usage as deep safety
> Deep Safety Alignment (By Season): 2016: 38% | 2017: 22% | 2018: 44% | 2019: 50%
Colts Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
- Jacoby Brissett (this season) has similar QB tendencies compared to Andrew Luck (last season):
> Brissett (2019): 2.71s avg TTT, 7.4 air yards/att, 96% of attempts inside box, 67% in 11 personnel
> Luck (2018): 2.64s avg TTT, 7.7 air yards/att, 95% of attempts inside box, 63% in 11 personnel
- Brissett has targeted the seams on 59.4% of pass attempts this season (Highest rate in NFL)
> Luck (2018): targeted seams on 56.0% of pass attempts in 2018 (2nd-highest in NFL)
- Leads all quarterbacks in passing TD outside the numbers this season (7)
> More likely to throw outside the numbers in the red zone (44%) than in the field (30%)
- Brissett has faced considerably less pressure this season (15%) than as Colts starter in 2017 (36%)
> Since 2017: 1-7 as Colts starter when pressured on more than 31% of dropbacks (5-6 when less than 31%)
Chiefs Offense vs. Colts Defense
- Most efficient offense in 11 Personnel this season averaging 8.1 yards/play (best in NFL)
- 81% of offensive plays from shotgun formation, 3rd-highest rate in NFL
- 66.7% completion pct allowed on downfield passes (10+ air yards), highest rate in the NFL
Replacing Tyreek Hill
After Tyreek Hill went down with a shoulder injury in Week 1, the Chiefs receiving corps quickly stepped up to replace Hill’s role and contribution to their offense. In 2018, Hill aligned out wide (52%) marginally more than in the slot (40%). In 2019, it has been rookie WR Mecole Hardman who has mimicked Hill’s pre-snap role, aligning wide (49%) and slot (43%) at nearly the same rates as Hill. As for their route-running tendencies, both Hardman (27.6) and 4th-year wideout Demarcus Robinson (27.4) travel similar in-play distances as Hill (28.0) did in 2018. Robinson, however, has been used almost exclusively as a deep threat, averaging 18.2 air yards per target this season, the second highest average in the NFL this season (minimum 15 targets).
- Mahomes throws deep on 16% of pass attempts since 2018 (behind only Josh Allen, 18%)
- Mahomes is getting the ball out quicker this season (2.73 seconds) than last season (2.91 seconds)
> Since 2018: 65% pass success rate on quick throws (<2.50 sec), 2nd behind only Brees (66%)
> Mahomes throws into tight windows on 8% of quick pass attempts since 2018, lowest rate among qualified QBs
- Mahomes has thrown into tight window at the lowest rate in the NFL (11.7%) since 2018
> Colts DEF: Forced a tight window on just 5% of attempts this season, 9% in 2018 (both lowest in NFL)
