Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 9 SNF PREVIEW (NBC): PATRIOTS AT RAVENS
Best of Patriots Notes
Tom Brady
Brady (5 deep TD this season) has matched his deep TD totals from 2017 & 2018 (5 in each season)
> This Season (20+ Air Yds): 14/27, 431 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 121.5 passer rating, +20.9% Above Expectation
117.0 passer rating when targeting the intermediate since 2018, 3nd in NFL (behind Watson & Brees)
> Edelman has three times as many intermediate receptions since 2018 (50) as the next NE active player (Dorsett, 16)
Since 2016, the Patriots are 25-2 when Brady is pressured less than 20% of dropbacks (inc. playoffs)
> BAL Defense: 24.3% pressure rate this season, 23rd in NFL (31.4% pressure rate when blitzing, 15th in NFL)
Patriots Offense
Sony Michel: Has already run more routes this season (50) than in all of 2018 (44)
James White: Aligned non-backfield on 22% of snaps, Tied-2nd-highest rate among RB (min. 150 snaps)
Without James Develin: 2+ RB usage has dropped from 55% (Weeks 1-2) to 17% (since Week 3)
Julian Edelman: Only 11.4% of targets have come in a tight window (3rd-lowest rate among WR, min. 50 tgts)
> Edelman averages 3.4 yards of separation from the slot since 2018, Tied-3rd most among slot WRs (min. 75 tgts)
Mohamed Sanu: Averages 3.6 yards of separation this season, 6th-best among WR (min. 30 targets)
Patriots O-Line: Led NFL in “Hurry Probability Allowed” in 2018 (11.2%), fallen to 13th in 2019 (14.1%)
> Hurry Probability: Likelihood a quarterback is hurried within 3 seconds from the snap
Patriots Defense
8 different Patriots defenders have generated 10+ pressures (no other team has more than 5)
> Van Noy (23), Winovich (16), Hightower (14), Collins (13), Butler (10), Shelton (10), Wise (10), Simon (10)
Deatrich Wise: 21% QB disruption rate in 2019, 3rd-highest in NFL among interior DL (min. 50 pass rushes)
Stephon Gilmore: Allowed 4.0 yards/target in press since 2018, Best in NFL (min. 30 press targets)
> Aligned in press coverage on 49% of targets as nearest defender since 2018 (3rd-highest in NFL, min. 100 targets)
J.C. Jackson: Allowed 0.0 passer rating in press coverage since 2018, best in NFL (min. 25 press targets)
> Nearest Defender: 29 targets, 6 receptions (20.7% comp pct), 74 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 0.0 passer rating
Devin McCourty: 38% passes defended rate, 2nd in NFL, min. 15 tgts (Leads NFL in INT this season, 5)
Best of Ravens Notes
Lamar Jackson
Avoids contact on runs: 300 rush yards have come before close-in this season (Most in NFL)
> Close-In: the first time on a run play when a defender gets within 1 yard of separation of the ball carrier
Has been more effective on play action passes in his career (102.8 passer rating) than non-PA (83.0)
> Play Action (Career): 78/133 (58.6% comp pct), 8.4 yds/att, 8 TD, 1 INT (102.8 passer rating)
> No Play Action (Career): 157/252 (62.3% comp pct), 6.9 yds/att, 9 TD, 7 INT (83.0 passer rating)
Has not thrown from outside the tackle box as often this season (13%) compared to 2018 (27%)
> 2018: 27% of passes outside the tackle box (Highest by any QB in a season since 2016, min. 150 attempts)
Jackson has completed just 2 deep pass attempts (20+ air yards) over his last 4 games (9 attempts)
> First 3 Games (20+ Air Yds): 8/21 (38.1% comp pct), 303 yards, 2 TD (117.7 passer rating)
> Last 4 Games (20+ Air Yds): 2/9 (22.2% comp pct), 83 yards, 2 INT (25.9 passer rating)
> NE Defense: 13.0% comp pct allowed vs deep, 2nd in NFL (Opponents are 6/46, 213 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT, 21.3 rating)
Ravens Offense
Mark Ingram: 6.9 yards/carry against light boxes (6-or-fewer), best in NFL (min. 20 carries vs. light box)
> Gus Edwards: 5.8 yards/carry against light boxes (6-or-fewer), 4th in NFL (min. 20 carries vs. light box)
Marquise Brown: Jackson throws deep on 17% of attempts with Brown ON-Field (9% without Brown)
> 11 deep targets over first 3 games, has not played since Week 5 (missed 2 games w/ankle injury)
Mark Andrews: 2.8 receiving yards per route this season, 2nd among TE (min. 100 routes)
> 5 deep targets (3 rec, 100 yards), T-3rd-most deep targets among TE this season
Ravens Defense
Marlon Humphrey: Allowed 36.0% catch rate on downfield passes (10+ air yards) in 2019 (4th-lowest in NFL)
Earl Thomas: Targeted as nearest defender on 4% of coverage snaps in 2019, lowest among all safeties
> As Nearest Defender: 8 targets (3 receptions), 24 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6.3 passer rating
> Aligned more “in the box” with the Ravens (10%) than with the Seahawks (2016: 3% | 2017: 3% | 2018: 4%)
> Thomas has blitzed more this season (16 pass rushes) than over the previous three seasons combined (5 total)
