Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 11 SNF PREVIEW: BEARS AT RAMS
Best of Bears Notes
Mitchell Trubisky
- Trubisky’s tendency to hold the ball on play action has led to less success and more pressure
> 2019 (Play Action): 25/39 (64.1% comp pct), 41% pass success rate, 3.14s avg time to throw, 25% pressure rate
> 2018 (Play Action): 64/91 (70.3% comp pct), 54% pass success rate, 2.88s avg time to throw, 19% pressure rate
> Trubisky has a tendency to throw deep on play action more than 2x as often this season (26%) than in 2018 (12%)
- 100.3 passer rating in 11 Personnel (Bears primary grouping), 64.3 in all other groupings
> 11 Personnel: 96/139 (69.1% comp pct), 877 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT (100.3 passer rating), 47% pass success rate
> All Others: 56/100 (56.0% comp pct), 513 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT (64.3 passer rating), 35% pass success rate
Bears Offense
- David Montgomery: 8.24 MPH average speed at LOS, slowest among RBs (min. 100 rush att)
> Averages 2.6 yards/carry vs stacked box (8+ defenders), 4.0 yards/carry vs 7-or-fewer defenders in box
- Tarik Cohen: Has struggled on targets beyond the line of scrimmage this season compared to 2018
> 2019 (Beyond LOS): 27 targets, 14 rec (51.9% catch rate), 110 yards, 1 TD (74.6 passer rating when targeted)
> 2018 (Beyond LOS): 61 targets, 43 rec (70.5% catch rate), 592 yards, 4 TD (109.5 passer rating when targeted)
Khalil Mack
- Created 7 turnovers from pressure since 2018, T-most in that span (Donald, Ford, Garrett, Miller)
- Pressure rate increases significantly by down (since 2018) - 1st: 9.9% | 2nd: 13.0% | 3rd: 17.4%
> Since 2018: 19.2% pressure rate on 3rd down from EDGE alignment, 4th among EDGE (min. 100 pass rushes)
- Mack aligns on both sides of the defense at an even split (Left EDGE 50%, Right EDGE 50%)
> Higher pressure rate from the left side of the defense (12.7%) than right side (9.6%) this season
Bears Defense
- Akiem Hicks: The Bears run defense has not been the same unit without Hicks on-field this season
> Hicks ON-Field (46 run plays): 2.8 yards/carry, 22% run stuff rate, 65% defensive success rate
> Hicks OFF-Field (184 run plays): 3.9 yards/carry, 16% run stuff rate, 48% defensive success rate
- Leonard Floyd: Pressure rate has declined in each of last 3 seasons (2017: 13.8% | 2018: 9.8% | 2019: 8.2%)
- Prince Amukamara is more than 4x more likely to align in press (42%) than Kyle Fuller (9%)
> Amukamara: 1 of 7 DB to not allowed a TD as nearest defender among 48 DBs (min. 40 targets)
> Fuller: 74.2% catch rate allowed, 38% coverage success this season (2018: 56.0% catch rate, 51% coverage success)
Best of Rams Notes
Jared Goff
- Goff ranks last among 34 qualified QBs in Completion Pct Relative to Expectation (-6.8%)
> Expected Comp Pct: 67.0% (5th-easiest in NFL) | Actual Comp Pct: 60.3% (30th in NFL)
- Goff has regressed on play action this season (0 TD, 4 INT) compared to 2018 (15 TD, 2 INT)
> Goff’s success on play action has not dropped off as drastically as TD-INT ratio (2018: 53% success | 2019: 51%)
- Has thrown deep on just 8% of attempts (8th-lowest rate in NFL) and has struggled throwing deep
> Deep (20+ air yards): 8/30 (26.7% comp pct), 281 yards, TD, 2 INT, 49.4 passer rating
> 2019: 2/14, 2 INT on play action deep attempts (5.7 passer rating) | 2018: 14/30, 3 TD, INT (112.5 passer rating)
Rams Offense
- Todd Gurley: Played on 65% of offensive snaps this season (86% playtime when active in 2018)
- Cooper Kupp: Averaged 2.2 yards of separation on 4 targets in Week 10 vs PIT (First 8 Games: 3.2)
Aaron Donald
- Generated 48 QB pressures, 21 more than any other Interior DL (13 run stuffs, 2nd among IDL)
- Fastest “Pass Rush Get Off” (0.80 seconds) among Interior DL (min. 100 pass rushes)
- Created 9 turnovers from pressure since 2017, T-most in that span (Myles Garrett & Yannick Ngakoue)
Rams Defense
- Dante Fowler: 4th-fastest “Pass Rush Get Off” (0.75 seconds) among EDGE (min. 100 pass rushes)
- Jalen Ramsey: Struggled in coverage as nearest defender in his first 3 games with the Rams
> w/Rams (3 Games): 17 targets, 13 rec allowed, 11.7 yds/tgt, 114.6 passer rating allowed, 35% coverage success
> w/Jaguars (3 Games): 25 targets, 16 rec allowed, 6.8 yds/tgt, 97.1 passer rating allowed, 48% coverage success
- Troy Hill: Forced tight windows (< 1 yard of sep) on 37% of targets in 2019, 5th-highest (min. 25 tgts)
