Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 3 PREVIEW: RAMS AT BROWNS
Best of Rams Notes
Jared Goff
Goff attempts a quick pass (<2.50 sec) on only 25% of pass attempts since 2018 (no other QB < 35%)
> All 13 of Goff’s interceptions from last 2 seasons have come on extended pass attempts (2.50+ seconds)
Targets the intermediate (10-19 air yds) on 28% of attempts (3rd-highest), more effective to the left
> LEFT (10-19 Air Yards): 36/58, 618 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (108.3 passer rating), 62.1% comp pct, 10.7 yards/attempt
> RIGHT (10-19 Air Yards): 20/48, 387 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT (63.5 passer rating), 41.7% comp pct, 8.1 yards/attempt
The Rams are 10-0 under Sean McVay when Goff is pressured less than 20% (18-9 all other games)
> Browns Defense: 2nd-highest team pressure rate this season (42.9%)
Todd Gurley
- The Rams have been more likely to run with Malcolm Brown on-field (59% run) than Gurley (41% run)
- Gurley has been involved less in passing game: Target Rate (targets/route) has declined almost 10%
> 2018: Targeted on 20.0% of routes | 2019: Targeted on 11.1% of routes
Rams Offense
- The Rams have used 11 Personnel only slightly less often this season (84%) than last season (89%)
- Align receivers in “Bunch” on 10% of plays since 2018 (2 players within 1.5 yds), highest rate in NFL
- Brandin Cooks: 13.3 air yards per target since 2018, 4th-deepest in NFL (min. 125 targets)
> Double-Teamed on 10% of targets this season, 3rd-highest rate among receivers, min. 10 targets
- Cooper Kupp: Jared Goff’s comp pct dropped 10% without Kupp on-field since 2018
Rams Defense
- Used Dime (6 DB) on 55% of plays, more than any other team this season (used 3-2-6 on 47% of plays)
- Aaron Donald: Leads all players in QB pressures (205) and average time to hurry (2.67 sec) since 2016
> Since 2016: Caused 11 turnovers from pressure, 3rd-most in the NFL in that span
- Cory Littleton: 18 hustle stops (traveling 20+ yards) since 2018, 2nd-most in NFL (behind L. Kuechly)
Best of Browns Notes
Baker Mayfield
- Since Kitchens took over as playcaller (Week 9, 2018) Mayfield leads NFL in Deep Comp Pct (53.3%)
> Deep Attempts under Kitchens (20+ Air Yards): 24/45 (53.3%) for 809 yards, 7 TD and 2 INT (119.7 passer rating)
- Mayfield grew into a more effective passer outside the tackle box after Kitchens took over
> Outside Box (first 6 games): 6/22, 27.3% comp pct, 4.1 yards/attempt, 0 TD, 1 INT (25.2 passer rating)
> Outside Box (last 10 games): 31/52, 59.6% comp pct, 11.6 yards/attempt, 6 TD, 2 INT (122.5 passer rating)
- Evaded pressure on 24.0% of dropbacks when hurried since 2018 (highest evade rate among QBs)
> Pressures Evaded: QB was under pressure during the play, but avoided pressure at the time of throw
> By avoiding traffic in the pocket, Mayfield has been pressured on just 19% of dropbacks in his career (3rd-lowest)
Odell Beckham Jr. & Jarvis Landry
- Beckham Jr: No WR aligned “isolated” more often than OBJ this season (58 plays, 50%)
> Beckham Jr. has been targeted on 30% of routes when isolated (10 targets on 33 ISO routes)
> Last 3 Seasons (2016-18 w/NYG): Beckham Jr. aligned isolated on only 19% of plays and targeted on 19.9% of those plays
- Jarvis Landry: Leads NFL in receptions from the slot since 2016 (182)
> Rams Pass Defense: Allowed the 2nd-fewest yards per attempt vs. slot receivers this season (5.0)
Browns Offense
- Nick Chubb: Highest pct of attempts vs. light boxes in 2019 (54.3%) among RBs, min. 30 carries
- Browns offense has used 11 personnel on 83% of plays (3rd-highest rate, behind WAS & LAR)
Browns Defense
- The Browns defense has played Nickel on 97% of plays this season, the highest usage rate in NFL
> The Browns have increased their usage 3-3-5 from 45% in 2018 to 77% in 2019
- The Browns defense has generated pressure on 42.9% of pass plays, 2nd-highest rate in NFL
> Blitzed on 41% of pass plays this season, 4th-highest rate in NFL
- Myles Garrett: 27.7% disruption rate (hurry, pressure or sack), best among DL (min. 50 snaps)
> Has aligned at RIGHT EDGE on 54 snaps (60%) and LEFT EDGE on 36 snaps (40%) - 100% of snaps at EDGE
- Joe Schobert: Made 4 hustle stops this season, tied for 2nd-most (behind Cole Holcomb, WAS)
> Hustle Stop: Defensive successful plays where the player covers 20+ yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle
Rams Offense vs. Browns Defense
- Since the start of 2018, the Rams average the fewest unique offensive groupings per game (2.7)
> The Rams have only used 6 distinct personnel groupings over the last two seasons (11, 12, 13, 10, 22, 01)
- The Rams have used 11 Personnel only slightly less often this season (84%) than last season (89%)
> In their final five games of 2018 (including playoffs), the Rams used 12 personnel on 41% of plays (55% in 11 PP)
> Since 2018: 97% of plays in 11 personnel with Gurley ON-Field | 73% of plays in 11 personnel with Gurley OFF-Field
- Align under center on 60% of plays this season, only the Vikings (75%) and 49ers (63%) use more often
> Led the NFL in percentage of snaps under center last season (59%), and yards/play when under center (6.6 YPP)
- Align receivers in “Bunch” on 10% of plays since 2018 (2 players within 1.5 yds), highest rate in NFL
- The Browns defense has played Nickel on 97% of plays this season, highest rate through two games
> The Browns have increased their usage 3-3-5 from 45% in 2018 to 77% in 2019
- Jared Goff’s average time to throw (2.93 seconds) is 4th-longest among 33 qualified QB since 2018
> Goff’s time to throw declines by down - 1st Down: 3.07 sec | 2nd Down: 2.85 sec | 3rd Down: 2.80 sec
- Goff attempts a quick pass (<2.50 sec) on only 25% of pass attempts since 2018 (no other QB < 35%)
> All 13 of Goff’s interceptions from last 2 seasons have come on extended pass attempts (2.50+ seconds)
- Targets the intermediate (10-19 air yds) on 28% of attempts (3rd-highest), more effective to the left
> LEFT (10-19 Air Yards): 36/58, 618 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT (108.3 passer rating), 62.1% comp pct, 10.7 yards/attempt
> RIGHT (10-19 Air Yards): 20/48, 387 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT (63.5 passer rating), 41.7% comp pct, 8.1 yards/attempt
Jared Goff With & Without Cooper Kupp
In Week 10 of last season, Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending knee injury, leaving a major void in the Rams potent offense. Without Kupp on the field, Jared Goff’s efficiency declines (10% decrease in completion pct), and his receivers create less separation (3.6 yards with Kupp, 3.2 yards without). Kupp’s role this season has been predominantly from slot or tight alignments (88% of plays) rather than wide alignment (12%).
Browns Offense vs. Rams Defense
- Browns offense has used 11 personnel on 83% of plays (3rd-highest rate, behind WAS & LAR)
- Used Dime (6 DB) on 55% of plays, more than any other team this season (used 3-2-6 on 47% of plays)
> Rams have used the lowest rate of Nickel (5 DB) this season (10% of plays), no other team under 20% (GB, 20%)
- Opposing QBs have a 28.2 passer rating on downfield attempts (10+ air yards) vs. Rams defense
> Rams vs. 10+ Air Yds: 10/23, 144 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT (28.2 opponent passer rating), 34.8% Tight Window (5th-highest)
The Dominance of Aaron Donald
Two-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald has been nearly impossible to block over the last few seasons. Since 2016, Donald leads all defenders in QB pressures (205), QB hurries (139), total QB disruptions (228), and average time to hurry (2.67 seconds).
In that span, Donald caused 11 turnovers from pressure (QB pressure that lead to INT or forced fumble), 3rd-most in the NFL and 44% (11/25) of the Rams total turnovers from pressure.
- Since Kitchens took over as playcaller (Week 9, 2018) Mayfield leads NFL in Deep Comp Pct (53.3%)
> Deep Attempts under Kitchens (20+ Air Yards): 24/45 (53.3%) for 809 yards, 7 TD and 2 INT (119.7 passer rating)
- Mayfield grew into a more effective passer outside the tackle box after Kitchens took over as playcaller
> Outside Box (first 6 games): 6/22, 27.3% comp pct, 4.1 yards/attempt, 0 TD, 1 INT (25.2 passer rating)
> Outside Box (last 10 games): 31/52, 59.6% comp pct, 11.6 yards/attempt, 6 TD, 2 INT (122.5 passer rating)
- Evaded pressure on 24.0% of dropbacks when hurried since 2018 (highest evade rate among QBs)
> Pressures Evaded: QB was under pressure during the play, but avoided pressure at the time of throw
> By avoiding traffic in the pocket, Mayfield has been pressured on just 19% of dropbacks in his career
- 16 of 18 career interceptions have come from a clean pocket (no pressure)
> Most INTs thrown from a clean pocket (16) among any quarterback since the start of last season
