Week 1 Rotoworld Picks
By John Daigle
Football’s back, and this year NBC is adding even more layers to the excitement that is Sunday Night Football. NBC Sports is launching a weekly NFL free-to-play game, Sunday Night 7, in which fans can participate for the first time leading up to this week’s Sunday Night Football opener as the competition begins for $2 million in guaranteed cash prizes over the course of the regular season and NBC NFL playoff games.
This NFL seven-question contest focuses on the upcoming NBC Sunday Night Football game, beginning with Week 1’s enticing matchup between the Steelers and Patriots at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. The information below could have you well on your way to winning the $100,000 in guaranteed prizes for the season opener.
1. First Touchdown of Game
No team passed more than Pittsburgh in the red zone (66%) last year, so a bet on any Steelers wideout is as safe as it gets. The problem is the Patriots typically allow shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore to play both on the outside and in the slot, rendering JuJu Smith-Schuster a low-probability bet to achieve any touchdown prop. Picking either Vance McDonald or Other (which is the same as crossing your fingers for a Donte Moncrief, James Washington, or Jaylen Samuels score) is the way to go.
2. Roethlisberger vs. Brady - More Passing Yards, Passing Touchdowns
While the entire league zigs towards the “Sean McVay/Patrick Mahomes Model” in the wake of their respective takeovers, the Patriots continue zagging as they trot out husky FB James Develin (6’3/255) and a starting o-line that tips the scales at an average 6’3/314. Ben Roethlisberger’s an easy lean to win out in both categories if only because New England has zero interest in passing for the aforementioned reason above.
3. James Conner - Rushing Yards, Total Touchdowns
Conner is projected to rush for anything from 66 to 76 yards on the ground. Opting for 75-99 isn’t the worst choice, but the safe play is settling just short in the 50-74 range. Same goes for him hitting pay-dirt at least once since the ‘total’ caveat gives Conner the opportunity to leverage one of his 5.4 targets per game from last year into a qualifying touchdown reception.
4. More Receiving Yards and Touchdowns: JuJu Smith-Schuster or Julian Edelman?
The Steelers allowed receiving lines of 7/106, 4/73/1, 7/62/2, 7/86/1, 14/148/1, and 7/90 to slot receivers last season. In case you didn’t know, Julian Edelman ran 80 percent of his routes from the slot in ’18. Need I say more?
5. Longest Touchdown of the Game
Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady ranked 3rd and 11th respectively in attempts that traveled 20-plus yards downfield last year, so odds are one scores from at least 50 yards out if either player connects. Note that the Steelers coincidently allowed the most 20-plus yard passing plays (21) to opposing offenses just last year, which was five more than the next closest defense.
6. Total Touchdowns in the Game
The Patriots alone are projected to score at least four touchdowns, so banking on another three from the opposition to at least match the estimated total points scored (50) seems like the optimal approach. Don’t overthink it and lean either ‘7’ or ‘8+’ in this instance.
7. Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers or New England Patriots?
The expected total (50) for points scored in this one has decreased a full field goal since initially being forecasted for a whopping 53 points combined, which tends to favor the home team since it’s the Patriots who have historically slammed on the brakes and kept the clock moving, recording the seventh-highest run play rate (45%) of any NFL offense last season. It just makes sense to eat the chalk in Gillette and select the defending Super Bowl 53 champs by one score.
