Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 1 PREVIEW (NBC): STEELERS AT PATRIOTS
Best of Steelers Notes
Ben Roethlisberger
★ Averaged the 2nd-quickest average time to throw (2.55 sec) among qualified quarterbacks in 2018
★ Since 2016, on plays without Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger’s air yards per att declined by 2+ yards
> Brown ON-Field: 8.8 air yards/attempt (1,779 attempts)|Brown OFF-Field: 6.5 air yards/attempt (120 attempts)
★ Roethlisberger relied more on YAC to generate yards when Antonio Brown was off the field
> Brown ON-Field: 51.5% of Roethlisberger’s yards from YAC|Brown OFF-Field: 66.6% of yards from YAC
James Conner
★ As a receiver, Conner was put in a position to succeed relative to the avg expected YAC when targeted
> Conner was expected to gain 9.7 YAC per reception according to our xYAC model, best among 39 RBs (min. 30 tgts)
> High xYAC indicates Conner was targeted in situations where he had time and space to create yards after the catch
JuJu Smith-Schuster
★ 2018: Aligned in the slot on 55% of snaps (39% wide), expected to align wide more often without AB
> 2019 Preseason: Aligned wide on 72% of 29 total snaps (14% slot, 14% tight)
Steelers Offense
★ Ran 80% of offensive plays out of shotgun in 2018, 4th-most in the NFL
> In Week 15 Matchup against the Patriots (last season) the Steelers used 01 personnel only once
★ No team ran more ‘01’ Personnel (4 WR, 1 TE) than the Steelers in 2018 (69 plays, 7% of all plays)
> In Week 15 Matchup against the Patriots (last season) the Steelers used 01 personnel only once
Steelers Defense
★ The Steelers were the only team to rank in the top 3 in pressure rate, sack rate & blitz rate in 2018
> Blitz Rate: 39.3% (2nd)|Pressure Rate: 29.4% (3rd)|Sack Rate: 8.4% (3rd)
★ T.J. Watt: 3.98 yards of avg separation from the QB in 2018, best among EDGE defenders (min. 200 snaps)
★ Cameron Heyward: T-4th-most pressures among interior DL in 2018 (46)
Best of Patriots Notes
Tom Brady
★ Brady’s low pressure rate can be attributed in part to getting the ball out fast (2.62 sec, 5th-fastest)
> Only Derek Carr (2.55 sec), Ben Roethlisberger (2.55), Drew Brees (2.59) & Andy Dalton (2.61) averaged a faster TTT
Patriots Running Backs (Sony Michel, James White, James Develin)
★ James White: 2nd-most routes from wide alignment (66) among all RB
> White: 131 air yards when aligned “wide” targets this season, 2nd-most by a RB in a season since 2016
Julian Edelman & Co. Without Rob Gronkowski
★ Edelman: Averaged 3.6 yards of separation from the slot, 3rd-best among slot WRs (min. 50 tgts)
★ Edelman: 129.2 passer rating when targeted on 3rd down from the slot since 2016 (4th-best in NFL)
★ Tom Brady’s Comp Pct vs. the blitz was more than 10% higher with Gronk on-field than off-field
> Gronkowski On-Field: 69.0% Comp Pct|Gronkowski Off-Field: 58.3% (since 2016)
Patriots Offense
★ The Patriots ran 56% of their offense snaps from under center in 2018, 3rd-highest rate in NFL
> The Rams (59%) and the 49ers (53%) ran the highest percentage of snaps from under center last season
★ OL Continuity played an important role late in the season and through the Patriots playoff run
> Patriots five primary OL starters missed a combined 12 snaps from Week 12 through the Super Bowl (Week 11 bye)
> In 2019, the Patriots return just 3 of those 5 starters along the OL (LG Thuney, RG, Mason, RT Cannon)
Patriots Defense
★ Allowed 23.3% of deep targets to be completed last season (lowest in NFL)
> Roethlisberger: 34.3% comp pct on deep targets to Antonio Brown, 29.2% comp pct on other deep targets since 2016
Steelers Offense vs. Patriots Defense
PIT - No team ran more ‘01’ Personnel (4 WR, 1 TE) than the Steelers in 2018 (69 plays, 7% of all plays)
> In Week 15 Matchup against the Patriots (last season) the Steelers used 01 personnel only once
PIT - Steelers ‘12’ Personnel averages 7.6 yards per play, 2nd-highest in the NFL
> Despite success from 12 personnel, the Steelers used 12 personnel on just 85 plays (8% of plays), 3rd-fewest in NFL
> Departed free agent Jesse James accounted for 95% of the Steelers 2+ TE sets in 2018 (Xavier Grimble is TE #2)
NE - Base Defense (4 DBs) on 12.1% of plays, 2nd-lowest rate in NFL
Ben Roethlisberger - QB Tendencies (2018 Regular Season)
★ Roethlisberger threw 56% of his passes in less than 2.5 seconds in 2018, the highest rate in the NFL
★ Roethlisberger was only pressured on 19% of his dropbacks, the 5th-lowest rate in the league
> Evaded pressure on 20% of dropbacks when he was under pressure at some point during the play (2nd-highest)
★ Roethlisberger threw 15% of his passes between the hashes, the highest rate in the NFL
★ 58% of Roethlisberger’s total passing yards in 2018 came after the catch, the highest share in the NFL
★ Situations where Roethlisberger wins: Against the Blitz, Targeting Receivers Aligned in the Backfield
> Passer Rating by Situation (Rank among 33 qualified QBs): vs. Blitz (112.3, 4th), Backfield (111.2, 4th)
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers Without Antonio Brown
Ben Roethlisberger is a different quarterback based on passing tendencies when Antonio Brown has been on the field (compared to off-field) over the last three seasons (including playoffs). Without Antonio Brown on-field, Roethlisberger averages a longer time to throw, throws shorter by air yards, is pressured more often, and relies heavily on YAC to generate yards. Roethlisberger also threw deep nearly twice as often when Brown was on the field: 14.4% deep with Brown on-field, 8.3% deep without Brown. Roethlisberger’s higher completion percentage without Brown indicates a higher propensity to throw shorter, higher probability passes.
Ben Roethlisberger With & Without Antonio Brown On-Field
Since 2016, Including Playoffs
Patriots Offense vs. Steelers Defense
The Patriots averaged 6.6 YPP from 11 personnel in 2018, 4th-best in NFL
> The Steelers used 2-3-6 (Dime) on more than half of plays vs. 11 personnel (6.2 YPP Allowed in Dime, 4th-worst)
The Patriots used 2 RBs on 37% of plays this season, 2nd-highest rate in NFL (behind only SF)
> More than half of the Patriots run plays (53.6%) and rushing TD (17 of 26) utilize 2-RB personnel
The Steelers were the only team to rank in the top 3 in pressure rate, sack rate & blitz rate in 2018
> Blitz Rate: 39.3% (2nd)|Pressure Rate: 29.4% (3rd)|Sack Rate: 8.4% (3rd)
★ Julian Edelman did most of his damage last season on slants and crosses in the middle third of the field, in the short to intermediate portion of the field (0-19 Air Yards).
★ 41% of Edelman’s targets last year came in the intermediate and between 0-19 air yards (44/108)
★ The Steelers excelled at defending this portion of the field last season, allowing receivers to get “Open” (3+ yards of sep) on just 32% of targets.
Tom Brady - QB Tendencies (2018 Regular Season)
★ Brady threw 50% of his passes in less than 2.5 seconds in 2018, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL
★ Pocket Passer: Brady threw inside the tackle box at the highest rate in the NFL in 2018 (95%)
★ Brady is a perfect 14/14 for 72 yards and 5 TD when time to throw is under 1.0 seconds in the red zone
> Since 2016, only two other QBs have even attempted more than 6 sub-1.0s passes (Drew Brees 12 & Jared Goff 10)
★ Brady was able to find open receivers and limit pressure when the defense blitzed in 2018
> 50% open throw rate, 19% pressure rate, and 3.8 average yards of separation all ranked 1st in NFL
★ Situations where Brady wins: Intermediate (10-19 air yards), against the blitz, against pressure,
> Passer Rating by Situation: Intermediate Passes (122.1, 3rd), vs. Blitz (108.9, 5th), vs Pressure (89.7, 4th)
How will Tom Brady Perform Against the Blitz Without Rob Gronkowski?
Rob Gronkowski has been a consistent safety valve as a receiver when Tom Brady faces the blitz. Since 2016, Brady has posted a higher completion percentage, passer rating, and completion percentage above expectation against the blitz when Gronkowski is on-field (compared to off-field). Even when Gronkowski isn’t targeted on the play, his presence helped improve Brady’s average targeted receiver separation and reduce his percentage of throws into tight windows.
Tom Brady vs Blitz, With & Without Rob Gronkowski On-Field
Since 2016, Including Playoffs
