Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 7 SNF PREVIEW: BUCCANEERS AT RAIDERS
Tom Brady in Tampa Bay
Brady’s Passing Tendencies by Team - More “in-rhythm” & deep passes, less YAC & play action this season with TB
> Brady w/TB (2020): 50% “in rhythm” (2.5 - 4 sec), 14% deep pct, 42% of yards from YAC, 18% play action
> Brady w/NE (2018-19): 45% “in rhythm” (2.5 - 4 sec), 9% deep pct, 51% of yards from YAC, 27% play action
> Brady’s average time to throw has remained stable (TB: 2.60s | NE: 2.68s), increase in air yards (TB: 8.9 | NE: 7.6)
Brady’s Formations by Team - Less shift/motions, more trips & bunch, less 2-back formations this season with TB
> Brady w/TB (2020): 45% pre-snap shift/motion, 58% trips formation, 22% bunch formation, 5% 2-Back formations
> Brady w/NE (2018-19): 63% pre-snap shift/motion, 35% Trips formation, 4% bunch formation, 27% 2-Back formations
> Brady also lines up in shotgun more often in TB (58%) than in NE (49%), still below NFL average (62%)
Brady’s Route Tendencies by Team - Brady’s targeted route types have remained relatively consistent since joining TB
> Brady’s Top Routes by % of Attempts w/TB (2020): 17% Out, 14% Hitch, 13% Flat, 11% Go, 9% Cross, 7% WR Screen
> Brady's Top Routes by % of Attempts w/NE (2018-19): 14% Out, 14% Hitch, 13% Flat, 11% Cross, 10% Go, 6% In
Brady by Time to Throw - All 4 interceptions have come on quick passes (Quick: 9 TD, 4 INT | Long: 5 TD, 0 INT)
> Under 2.5 sec: 4.6 AY/A, 9 TD, 4 INT, +0.02 EPA/dropback | Over 2.5 sec: 12.5 AY/A, 5 TD, 0 INT, +0.15 EPA/dropback
> Maintained quick pass tendencies (2.60s avg), 8th-quickest among qualified QB (Brady’s fastest since ‘18)
> Avg Time to Throw - 2016: 2.56s (12th) | 2017: 2.71s (19th) | 2018: 2.62s (5th) | 2019: 2.75s (12th) | 2020: 2.60s (8th)
Brady Deep - Brady is tied for the league-lead in deep passing attempts (32) this season (with Aaron Rodgers)
> Deep (20+ air yards) - Weeks 1-5: 11/29, 411 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT | Week 6 vs GB: 0/3, 0 yards on deep attempts
> Most Deep Attempts (2020): T. Brady & A. Rodgers (32), C. Wentz (30), K. Cousins & M. Ryan (29)
> Highest Deep Pass Pct (2020): A. Rodgers (18%), K. Cousins (17%), T. Brady (14%), M. Trubisky (14%), J. Flacco (14%)
Arians’ Downfield Attack - Brady is averaging slightly fewer air yards/attempt than Carson Palmer & Jameis Winston
> All three starting QBs under Arians have ranked top 5 in air yards per attempt since 2016 (2020: Brady ranks 10th)
> 2016: C. Palmer (10.1, 3rd) | 2017: C. Palmer (9.4, 4th) | 2019: J. Winston (10.5, 2nd) | 2020: T. Brady (8.9, 10th)
Brady Inside the Pocket - Thrown only 4 passes from outside the tackle box this season (219 of 223 inside the box)
> 2020: 98.2% of pass attempts from inside the tackle box, highest rate in the NFL (Rivers, 97.5%)
> Low Play Action Usage - 18.2% of dropbacks have been play action, 6th-lowest among QB (Brady’s 5-year low)
> Arians rarely uses play action - 2016 (ARI): 15.7% (29th) | 2017 (ARI): 17.8% (27th) | 2019 (TB): 16.8% (30th)
Opponents Haven’t Blitzed - Brady has faced 5+ pass rushers on only 19.0% of dropbacks, 2nd-lowest rate among QBs
> Brady’s low blitz rate against (19.0%) is the 3rd-lowest faced by a QB in a season in the NGS era (since 2016)
> Brady has not been as effective against the blitz last 2 seasons (6.4 YPA vs blitz) compared to 2016-18 (8.3 YPA vs blitz)
> Week 6 vs GB: Brady was 12/14, 102 yards, TD (+0.77 EPA/dropback) when the Packers did not blitz (5/13, 64 yards, TD)
Brady on More Difficult Passes - When completion probability is under 50% (2020): 42.6% comp pct (2018-’19: 32.6%)
> CP < 50% (2020 w/TB): 20/47, 5 TD, 0 INT, 42.6% comp pct, +7.5% CPOE, +0.34 EPA/dropback, 42.6% success rate
> CP <50% (2018-19 w/NE): 86/264, 23 TD, 8 INT, 32.6% comp pct, -2.4% CPOE, -0.06 EPA/dropback, 29.2% success rate
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin & the Bucs Passing Attack
Evans on Go Routes - 29 receptions on Go routes since 2018, 7 more than the next closest WR (Stefon Diggs, 22)
> Since 2018 (Go Routes): 68 targets (1st), 29 receptions (1st), 887 yards (1st), 10 TD (1st), +9.0 Catch Rate Over Exp
Evans in the End Zone - No player has been targeted more times in the end zone since 2018 (36), 14 EZ rec (3rd)
Godwin Versatility - Godwin leads the NFL with 9 different routes with 100+ yards since 2019 (J. Jones/D. Waller: 8)
> Godwin: Out (265), Post (228), Go (180), Hitch (164), Screen (150), In (145), Cross (132), Corner (122), Slant (119)
> Waller: Cross (309), Hitch (224), Flat (205), Slant (140), Screen (138), Post (131), Go (129), Out (109)
No Press Godwin (Since 2019) - Godwin is the only WR to be pressed less than 10% of routes (8.8%), min. 300 routes
> Godwin: 8% of routes aligned tight since 2019 (2nd-highest rate among WR, min. 300 routes) | 60% slot, 32% wide
Godwin & Evans - Both WRs rank in the top 10 in receptions on intermediate targets (10-19 air yards) since 2019
> Top 8: Jones (48), Allen (44), Evans (43), Boyd (42), Ridley (39), M. Thomas (38), Hopkins (37), Godwin (36)
Bucs WRs on Post Routes - Godwin and Evans both rank in the top 5 in targets on post routes since 2019
> Post Route Targets (since 2019): Allen Robinson (23), Mike Evans (19), Kenny Golladay & Tyler Boyd (17), Godwin (16)
> Chris Godwin (since 2019): 103 Post routes run, 22 more than the next closest player (Mike Williams, 81)
Evans Shadowed - Evans has struggled when he has been shadowed, but the Raiders haven’t shadowed this season
> Week 1 vs NO: Marshon Lattimore aligned across from Evans on 29 of 37 routes (78%), 0 receptions on 2 targets
> Week 6 vs GB: Jaire Alexander aligned across from Evans on 19 of 24 routes (79%), 0 receptions on 1 target
Arians Formations - Arians has used trips and bunch formations at top 3 rates in every season as a HC since 2016
> Trips Formations: 2016 (ARI): 71% (1st) | 2017 (ARI): 62% (1st) | 2019 (TB): 59% (1st) | 2020 (TB): 59% (1st)
> Bunch Formations: 2016 (ARI): 16% (1st) | 2017 (ARI): 15% (3rd) | 2019 (TB): 19% (1st) | 2020 (TB): 23% (1st)
Ronald Jones & Leonard Fournette
Ronald Jones - Leads NFL in rushing yards over expected (+114) among RB this season (472 yards, 358 expected)
> Top 5 (2020): Jones (+114), Nick Chubb (+102), Dalvin Cook (+99), Raheem Mostert (+95), James Conner (+84)
> Jones is also tied with Cook for the most first downs gained over expected (+7) this season
Jones vs Fournette - Fournette and Jones both have performed well above expectation, despite lacking space
> (Min. 20 carries, 64 RB) Fournette: 3.5 xYPC (60th), +1.6 RYOE/carry (6th); Jones: 3.7 xYPC (55th), +1.2 RYOE/carry (8th)
The Strengths & Weaknesses of the Raiders Defense
Pass Rush Improving - Raiders rank outside the bottom 6 in pressure rate for the first time since trading Khalil Mack
> Raiders Pressure Rate Ranks - 2018: 16.8% (only team under 23%) | 2019: 22.9% (28th) | 2020: 25.5% (17th)
> Weeks 1-4: 31 QBP, 4 sacks, 22.5% QBP rate | Week 5 vs KC: 16 QBP (most by LV since 2018), 3 sacks, 34.8% QBP rate
Loose Coverage - The Raiders allow the highest average target separation (3.8 yards) in the NFL this season
Derek Carr by the Numbers
Carr Deep - Carr throws deep at the 9th-lowest rate this season (8.0%), but has been very effective on deep attempts
> Carr (Deep) 2020: 8/14, 350 yards, 3 TD (T-5th), 0 INT, 141.1 passer rating (3rd), 21.4% CPOE (4th), +28.1 Total EPA (2nd)
Carr Time to Throw - Since Gruden took over as HC in 2018, time to throw has increased (2016-17: 2.49s | 2018-20: 2.68s)
> Carr has been best on quick throws (2.5 seconds or less) since 2018, especially this season (61/76, 492 yards, 6 TD)
> Carr (since 2018): +0.22 EPA/dropback on quick passes, -0.05 EPA/dropback when time to throw 2.5+ seconds
Conservative Carr - Derek Carr averaged the lowest air yards per attempt in consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2019
> Carr - (2018): 6.7 air yds/att (last), 7% deep (4th-lowest) | (2019): 6.3 air yds/att (last), 7% deep (4th-lowest)
> 2020: Carr has averaged 7.1 air yards/attempt (7th-lowest), but has connected on 8/14 deep passes for 350 yards, 3 TD
Ruggs Unlocking Carr Deep - Carr has been thrown deep at more than twice the rate with Henry Ruggs on the field
> Carr Deep - (Ruggs On-Field): 13% deep pct, 5/8, 264 yards, 2 TD | (Ruggs Off-field): 5% deep pct, 3/6, 86 yards, TD
> Ruggs opens up the field - 58% open throw pct with Ruggs (44% open throw pct without Ruggs) *3+ yds of separation
Raiders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Josh Jacobs - Jacobs has gained +177 rush yards over expected (RYOE) since entering the league in 2019 (5th in NFL)
> Jacobs has exceeded his expected rush yards on 35% of carries since 2019 (4th in NFL, min. 200 carries)
> The Raiders have only been expected to gain 4.0 yards per carry in 2020 (8th-lowest in NFL)
Darren Waller Iso Y - Waller aligned as the Isolated-Y on 17% of his routes since 2019 (2nd among TE, min. 100 routes)
> Waller as Iso-Y (since 2019): 24 rec (2nd), 32 targets (3rd), 288 yds (2nd), TD (29.6% target rate, 2.7 yards/route)
> The Raiders are significantly more likely to pass when Waller is isolated (33 runs, 108 pass plays: 76.6% pass rate)
Waller Route Tree - 4 most commonly run routes are hitch (18%), go (17%), flat (15%), and cross (15%) since 2019
> Waller on Flat Routes (since 2019): 205 yards (60 more than any other WR/TE), 35.1% target rate (1st, min. 50 flat routes)
Waller Alignment - Waller is 1 of 3 players with 10+ targets aligned in the slot, out wide, and tight (Kelce, Z. Ertz)
> Waller Alignment Tendencies - (2019): 27% slot, 18% wide, 54% tight | (2020): 29% slot, 20% wide, 51% tight
> Since 2020, the Raiders are more likely to pass when Waller is detached (66% rate) compared to when he’s tight (50%)
Field Stretching - Nelson Agholor and Ruggs both rank in the top 5 of distance per route this season (min. 60 routes)
> Top 5 WR (2020): Agholor (28.9), Mecole Hardman (28.5), Ruggs (27.5), Tyreek Hill (27.5), Kenny Stills (27.3)
Renfrow and Agholor by Alignment - Agholor has moved from the slot to out wide in his first season as a Raider
> Agholor Alignment Tendencies - (2019, PHI): 63% slot, 32% wide, 5% tight | (2020): 26% slot, 68% wide, 6% tight
> Renfrow Alignment Tendencies - (2019): 69% slot, 24% wide, 6% tight | (2020): 61% slot, 32% wide, 7% tight
Raider Condensed Formations - The Raiders have the 2nd-lowest average formation width in the NFL this season
> Most Narrow Average Formation Width (in yards): Rams (20.4), Raiders (22.5), 49ers (22.5), Titans (23.0), Packers (23.0)
> All five of the teams with the most narrow average formation width come from the Shanahan/Gruden coaching tree
Todd Bowles’ Blitz - 5th consecutive season a Bowles-coached defense has ranked in the top 6 of blitz rate (40%, 4th)
> Bowles Blitz Rates - 2019 (TB): 42% (2nd) | 2018 (NYJ): 35% (5th) | 2017 (NYJ): 36% (6th) | 2016 (NYJ): 42% (2nd)
> The Buccaneers lead the NFL in INT (6), sacks (15), and sack rate (15.8%) on blitzes in 2020 | 34.7% pressure rate (4th)
Ndamukong Suh - 53 QB pressures since the start of 2019, 5th-most among interior DL in that span
> Top 5 (among IDL): A. Donald (98), C. Campbell (60), C. Heyward (59), DeForest Buckner (58), N. Suh (53)
Shaq Barrett Breakout Continues - Barrett has 26 QB pressures through 6 games this season (T-3rd in NFL)
> Barrett had more QB pressures in 2019 (68) than in the previous 3 seasons combined (60)
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2016: 12.6% | 2017: 12.7% | 2018: 7.3% | 2019: 13.4% | 2020: 14.5% (5th, min. 100 rushes)
> Since 2019: 7 turnovers caused by pressure (FR or INT), T-2nd in NFL in that span (Bud Dupree - 8, Myles Garrett - 7)
Lavonte David’s Range - David leads the NFL with 11 hustle stops this season, 3 more than any other player
> Top 5 in Hustle Stops: David (11), Roquan Smith (8), Blake Martinez & Marlon Humphrey (7), 9 players tied w/6
Carlton Davis - Allowed 1.0 yards/coverage snap this season (10th-lowest among outside CB, min. 150 cov. snaps)
> Coverage Ranks among outside CB (min. 25 targets): 52.6 passer rating allowed (2nd), 4.9 yards/target (lowest in NFL)
Jamel Dean - Dean has struggled to repeat his breakout rookie year performance, had best game of 2020 in Week 6
> Dean (2020): 20% ball hawk rate, 23% tight window target rate, 3.6 yards average target separation
> 2019 Ranks among DB (min. 40 targets): 35% ball hawk rate (1st) | 41% TW % (2nd) | 1.9 yds avg target separation (3rd)
> Week 6 vs GB: 2 targets, 0 receptions allowed, 1 INT for TD against Aaron Rodgers (50% ball hawk, 2.3 yards separation)
Davis & Dean Cushion - Dean & Davis both rank in the top 5 of pre-snap cushion when lined up against wide routes
> Top 5 (min. 100 wide routes faced): R. Douglas (8.6 yards), Dean (8.2), T. Pride (8.0), J. Alexander (8.0), Davis (8.0)
> Dean has aligned in off coverage on 87% of wide routes faced (3rd-highest, min. 100 routes) | Davis: 82% (8th)
> TB Defense: 2nd-largest increase (+7%) in press coverage rate vs slot routes (20%, 10th) compared to wide (14%, 27th)
