Next Gen Stats Preview

NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 7 SNF PREVIEW: SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS

Russell Wilson by the Numbers

Wilson Deep (Since 2016) - Leads the NFL in deep completions, yards, yards/attempt, TDs & comp pct over expected

> Since 2016 (Deep): 143 completions (1st), 4,909 yds (1st), 14.7 YPA (4th), 51 TD (1st), +11.8% CPOE (1st)

> 2020 (Deep): 13 completions (T-2nd), 488 yards (1st), 21.2 YPA (4th), 8 TD (1st), 3.46s time to throw (19th-longest)

> Wilson’s 4,909 deep passing yards since 2016 are almost 1,000 more than any other QB (Kirk Cousins 4,000)

Wilson Go Routes - No QB throws a higher pct of passes targeting receivers running Go routes (17%) since 2018

> Top 5 Go Route % (since 2018): Wilson (17%), Fitzpatrick (13%), Roethlisberger (13%), Mayfield (13%), Winston (13%)

Wilson-Lockett Deep among QB-WR Duos (Since 2016) -  41 receptions (2nd), 1,455 yards (2nd), 14 TD (2nd)

> Wilson-Lockett (Deep): +18.8% Catch Rate Over Expected since 2016 (2nd among duos, min. 25 tgt)

> Wilson-Metcalf (Deep): +18.6% Catch Rate Over Expected since 2019 (3rd among duos, min. 25 tgt)

Outside the Numbers - Wilson has ranked in the top 3 of throwing outside the numbers in 5 consecutive seasons

> Outside the Numbers Rate: 2016: 51% (3rd) | 2017: 46% (3rd) | 2018: 49% (2nd) | 2019: 50% (1st) | 2020: 52% (1st)

> Wilson has excelled throwing outside the numbers this season especially, with a league leading 11 TD and only 1 INT

> 2020 (Outside Numbers): 73.6% comp pct (3rd), 9.7 YPA (4th), 11 TD (1st), +9.0% comp pct over expected (6th)

Over Expected - Russell Wilson is 1 of 3 QB to complete more passes than expected in each of the last 5 seasons

> Wilson, Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan are the only QB with a positive Comp Pct Over Expected in all 5 seasons since 2016

> Wilson CPOE Ranks: 2016: +5.0% (6th) | 2017: +1.9% (3rd) | 2018: +4.2% (2nd) | 2019: +4.8% (4th) | 2020: +7.7% (1st)

Extended Dropbacks - Since 2018, no QB has more TD passes on extended dropbacks (4+ seconds) than Wilson (19)

> Top 4 (since 2018): R. Wilson (19), D. Watson (16), P. Mahomes (14), J. Winston (12), B. Mayfield (11)

> Kyler Murray only has 2 TD on extended dropbacks (4+ seconds) in his career (across 22 starts), 4 INT, -0.56 EPA/DB

Improbable Touchdowns - Russell Wilson is responsible for the two most improbable TD passes of the last 3 seasons

> Week 2, 2020 (vs NE): 38-yard TD to David Moore (6.3% Completion Probability)

> Week 5, 2019 (vs LAR): 13-yard TD to Tyler Lockett (6.3% Completion Probability)

The Seahawks Trio of Carson, Lockett & Metcalf

Yards Over Expected - Chris Carson ranks 5th among RB in Total Rush Yards Over Expected (+293) since 2018

> Top 5: Nick Chubb (+628), Derrick Henry (+581), Saquon Barkley (+411), Christian McCaffrey (+344), Chris Carson (+293)

Rush Success Rate - Carson has exceeded his expected rush yards at the 3rd-highest rate since 2018 (min. 200 carries)

> Pct of Runs Over Expected (since 2018): Elliott (37.9%), Mostert (37.3%), Carson (37.0%), Henry (35.9%), Mack (35.9%)

DK Metcalf Deep - 7 deep receiving TD since entering the league in 2019, most in NFL in that span (20+ air yards)

Metcalf on Go Routes - Has 10 more targets on go routes (49) than any other player since entering league in 2019

> Career (since 2019): 238 routes (2nd), 49 targets (1st), 17 receptions (1st), 544 yards (1st), 4 TD (T-6th)

Lockett on Crossing Routes - Lockett has 4 more receptions on crossing routes (14) than any other player this season

> Lockett has been targeted 17 times on 41 crossing routes (14 rec, 167 yards, TD), none were targeted in a tight window

Kyler Murray by the Numbers

Avoids Pressure - Murray is the least pressured QB for the second consecutive season (2019: 13.1% | 2020: 11.7%)

> Lowest Pressure Rate (since 2019): Murray (12.7%), A. Rodgers (18.3%), Brees (18.5%), Carr (19.9%), Mahomes (20.8%)

> Career (since 2019): Murray has a -14.1% CPOE under pressure (30th out of 32 QBs), +0.3% CPOE no pressure (16th)

Murray’s Speed - Murray has reached 15+ MPH on 68.8% of rushes in his career (highest among QB, min. 50 rushes)

> Top 5 QB (15+ MPH %): Murray (68.8%), Watson (60.0%), Mahomes (55.8%), Jackson (54.4%), Jones (50.0%)

Murray Evades Duress - Escapes pressure on 28.3% of dropbacks since 2019, highest in the NFL among qualified QB

> Highest QBP Evade Rate (since 2019): Murray (28.3%), Allen (24.6%), Carr (22.0%), Minshew (18.2%), Mayfield (17.2%)

Increased Inside Box Attempts - Murray has thrown from inside the tackle box on 89% of attempts (2019: 83%)

> Rate of quick throws has stayed consistent (51%) compared to 2019 (53%), fewer 4+ sec dropbacks (9% vs 13%)

Low Rate of Tight Windows - Murray throws into tight windows at the 7th-lowest rate since entering NFL in 2019 (14%)

> Lowest TW %: Bridgewater (12%), Mahomes (12%), Carr (13%), Brees (13%), Goff (13%), Flacco (14%), Murray (14%)

> Tight Window Attempts (since 2019): 30.7% comp pct (23rd), -6.6% CPOE (23rd), 4.9 YPA (19th), -0.33 EPA/DB (20th)

WR Screen Tendency (Career) - Murray throws a WR screen on 12% of attempts since 2019 (no other QB over 8%)

> Top 5 (since 2019): Kyler Murray (12%), Jacoby Brissett (8%), Mitch Trubisky (8%), Jared Goff (7%), Dwayne Haskins (7%)

> Since 2019: No QB has thrown a higher pct of passes behind the line of scrimmage than Murray (22%)

Targeting Intermediate (10-19 Air Yards) - 5 of 6 INTs this season have come between 10-19 air yards (3 TD, 5 INT)

> Despite high INT total, Murray’s intermediate completion pct has increase by +5% - 2019: 48.9% comp pct | 2020: 54.5%

> SEA Defense (vs 10-19 air yds): 60.3% comp pct allowed (23rd), +5.0% CPOE (24th), 2.4 avg separation (10th)

Efficiency on Longer Dropbacks - Murray struggled in 2019 when time to throw was 2.5+ seconds, improved in 2020

> 2019 (2.5+ sec): 143/253 (56.5% comp pct, -1.0% CPOE), -0.13 EPA/DB, 36.2% pass success rate

> 2020 (2.5+ sec): 52/99 (52.5% comp pct, +1.6% CPOE), -0.06 EPA/DB, 43.5% pass success rate

> SEA Defense (vs. 2.5+ seconds): 6 TD allowed (T-11th), 64.6% comp pct allowed (7th-highest), 5 INT

Improvement vs Blitz - Murray has been significantly more efficient against 5+ pass rushers this season

> 2019 (vs Blitz): 73/133 (54.9% comp pct, -5.8% CPOE), -0.30 EPA/DB, 34.0% pass success rate (2.68 avg time to throw)

> 2020 (vs Blitz): 31/44 (70.5% comp pct, +6.2% CPOE), +0.07 EPA/DB, 55.3% pass success rate (2.59 avg time to throw)

> Murray is getting rid of the ball quicker against the blitz (2.59s vs 2.68s) which has led to less pressure (14.9% vs 18.3%)

> SEA Defense: 29% blitz rate this season (5-year high), 29.6% pressure rate when blitzing, 24.3% pressure rate no blitz

Murray Better in Trailing Situations - More efficient as a passer when pre-snap win probability is less than 50%

> 2019 (WP < 50%): 242/382 (63.4% comp pct, -1.6% CPOE), -0.08 EPA/DB, 40.0% pass success rate (14% tight window)

> 2020 (WP < 50%): 62/85 (72.9% comp pct, +2.9% CPOE), +0.04 EPA/DB, 52.3% pass success rate (4% tight window)

Murray More Effective with Edmonds On-Field (Since 2019) - More efficient with Edmonds on-field (vs Drake)

> Kyler Murray w/Chase Edmonds ON (since 2019): +0.15 EPA/dropback | Edmonds OFF: -0.08 EPA/dropback

> Kyler Murray w/Kenyan Drake ON (since 2019): -0.09 EPA/dropback | Drake OFF: +0.05 EPA/dropback

Characteristics of Kliff Kingsbury’s Offense

Creating Space in Run Game - Kingsbury’s offense has had a top 2 expected rush yards/carry in both years as HC

> ARI (2020): 4.9 expected rush yards per carry (2nd) | ARI (2019): 4.7 expected rush yards per carry (1st)

> NOTE: the expected rush yards model only includes plays with a handoff (so Murray’s runs are not included)

> Cardinals have also led the NFL in % of runs vs light boxes in both seasons - 68% in 2020 (1st), 56% in 2019 (1st)

Cardinals by Personnel - The Cardinals have utilized 10 personnel on 16% of snaps, almost 9x the NFL average (2%)

> Top 5 in 10 Personnel Rate: Bills (22%), Cardinals (16%), Panthers (4%), Cowboys (4%), Patriots (3%)

> The Cardinals use 12 personnel on 28% of plays this season (3rd-highest in NFL) | 45% 11 personnel rate (28th)

DeAndre Hopkins Continues Success in Arizona

DeAndre Hopkins Excelling - Hopkins is averaging his highest yards/route (3.0) in 2020 over the last 5 seasons

> Top 5 Yds/Route (min. 100 routes): J. Jefferson (3.3), A. Kamara (3.2), R. Anderson (3.0), D. Hopkins (3.0), G. Kittle (3.0)

New Team, Easier Passes - Hopkins has been given easier targets this season (69.7% expected catch rate)

> Hopkins with ARI (2020): 69.7% expected catch rate (5th-highest among WR, min. 30 targets) | +7.3% CROE

> Hopkins with HOU (2016-19): 57.0% expected catch rate (10th-lowest among WR, min. 300 targets) | +4.6% CROE

> Lockett has the 2nd-highest expected catch rate (72.0%) among WR with 30+ targets this season

Hopkins with Cardinals - Hopkins has more than doubled his open target rate, pressed at almost a third the rate

> Hopkins with ARI (2020): pressed on 17% of routes, 7.9 air yds/att, 59% of targets open, 3.5 yds avg tgt separation

> Hopkins with HOU (2016-19): pressed on 43% of routes, 12.2 air yds/att, 26% of targets open, 2.4 yds avg tgt separation

Hopkins Toe Tap - Leads the NFL by a considerable amount in volume and production on sideline targets since 2016

> Since 2016: 123 targets (ahead of A. Robinson, 88), 42 receptions (Hilton, 29), 690 yards (Hilton, 508), 5 TD (T-4th)

Hopkins Downfield - Hopkins has the 3rd-highest catch rate (77.3%) on 10+ air yards targets this season (min. 15 tgts)

> Hopkins on 10+ AY Targets (2019): 31.1% open targets, 49.2% catch rate, 10.3 yards/target, 5 TD receptions

> Hopkins on 10+ AY Targets (2020): 45.5% open targets, 77.3% catch rate, 14.7 yards/target, 2 TD receptions

Jamal Adams On-Field Impact (Blitzing & Run Defense)

Jamal Adams Blitzing - Ranks T-2nd in blitzes (32) and 1st in QB pressures (8) among DB this season (16.2% blitz rate)

> Top 5 Pressures among DB (2020): J. Adams (8), J. Mills (7), M. Hilton (7), B. Baker (6), C. Clark (6)

> The Seahawks have blitzed on 15% of pass plays without Adams on the field, 39% blitz rate with Adams this season

> Since 2017: Adams has 13 more pressures (46), 52 more blitzes (287), and 4.5 sacks (14) more than any other DB

Run Defense Struggling Without Adams - The Seahawks allow 2.8 YPC with Adams on-field, 4.9 YPC without Adams

> Adams ON (120 run plays): 2.8 YPC, 8.3% 10+ yard runs | Adams OFF (138 run plays): 4.9 YPC, 15.9% 10+ yard runs