Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 8 SNF PREVIEW: COWBOYS AT EAGLES
Ben DiNucci vs Carson Wentz
Cowboys QBs by Tendency - All three Cowboys QBs have been pressured on over 34% of dropbacks this season
> Air Yards/Attempt by QB - Prescott (222 att): 7.9 air yds/att | Dalton (85 att): 6.5 | DiNucci (3 att): 11.6 | NFL Avg: 8.1
> Time to Throw by QB - Prescott: 2.77 seconds | Dalton: 2.63 sec | DiNucci: 2.39 sec | NFL Avg: 2.75 sec
> Pressure Rate by QB - Prescott: 34.5% pressure rate | Dalton: 34.8% | DiNucci: 66.7% | NFL Avg: 25.8%
DiNucci in Limited Action (Week 7) - Sacked (3) as many times as he threw a pass (3) in Week 7 (66.7% pressure rate)
> Week 7 at WAS: DiNucci was pressured on 4 of his 6 dropbacks in relief of Andy Dalton, 3 sacks (4.12 avg time to sack)
> DiNucci Time to Sack (Week 7): Sacked in 3.84 seconds (T. Settle), 3.90 seconds (M. Sweat), 4.61 seconds (R. Kerrigan)
> Cowboys QBs have been pressured on 35.0% of dropbacks, 2nd-highest rate of in the NFL (ahead of NYG, 43.4%)
DiNucci by Personnel (Week 7) - The Cowboys used only two groupings w/DiNucci (11 plays in ‘11’ PP | 3 plays in ‘12’)
> Week 7 at WAS: All 6 of DiNucci’s pass plays were in 11 personnel, all 4 plays under center were run plays
Wentz Below Expectation - Wentz has just a 58.6% comp pct this season (28th), despite a 62.7% exp comp pct (26th)
> Wentz: -4.0% comp pct over expected in 2020 (28th among 32 qualified QB) | -48.1 Total EPA on dropbacks (2nd-lowest)
Wentz’s Struggles - Wentz (-48.1) trails only Sam Darnold (-67.2) in Total EPA on dropbacks this season
> Lowest Total EPA (2020): Sam Darnold (-67.2), Wentz (-48.1), D. Lock (-43.4), D. Jones (-36.6), D. Haskins (-27.4)
Extending Plays (for Worse) - Wentz has severely hurt his team when trying to extend plays (4+ seconds) this season
> Wentz has lost twice as much negative Total EPA on extended plays (-62.6) than the next closest QB (Burrow: -34.0)
> Wentz on Extended Plays (4+ seconds): 10/33, 111 yards, TD, 3 INT (T-most), 25 sacks (9 more than any other QB)
Wentz Downfield - Wentz has been more efficient targeting Travis Fulgham downfield than his other receivers
> Fulgham Targets (10+ Air Yards): 12/23, 261 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 52.2% comp pct, 11.7 YPA, +17.0 Total EPA
> All Other Targets (10+ Air Yards): 19/60, 426 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT, 38.0% comp pct, 8.6 YPA, -5.2 Total EPA
Wentz Without Pressure - Wentz has thrown 7 INT when not pressured this season (2 more than any other QB)
> Wentz threw 22 TD, 3 INT against no pressure in 2019, has 9 TD, 8 INT against no pressure this season
> Wentz has also regressed vs pressure - 2019: 52.0% comp pct, 28.0% success | 2020: 41.4% comp pct, 20.4% success
Wentz Out of Pocket - Wentz is 1 of 4 QBs with at least as many sacks (16) as completions (16) outside the tackle box
> Most Sacks Outside the Tackle Box (2020): Wentz (16), Watson (11), Burrow (9), Fitzpatrick/Mayfield/J. Allen (8)
Improbable Completions - Wentz has 4 completions where comp probability was under 25%, more than all of 2019 (3)
> 2019 (CP < 25%): 3/23, 119 yards, 3 TD, INT (-2.6% CPOE) | 2020 (CP < 25%): 4/16, 174 yards, 2 TD, INT (+9.3% CPOE)
> 2020: 16 pass attempts w/completion probability under 25%, T-4th-most in NFL (behind Burrow, Murray, Wilson)
> Wentz has netted +10.7 expected points added on difficult attempts this season, -10.8 expected points added in 2019
Jalen Hurts - The rookie QB has played 2+ snaps in each game since Week 2, and all have been with Wentz on the field
> Hurts Alignment Snaps: 2 backfield, 5 wide, 2 slot, 12 at QB | 18 of Hurts 23 snaps were run plays (2 two-point attempts)
Cowboys Wide Receiver Trio
Cowboys Trips Formations - The Cowboys have aligned in trips formations on 58% of plays this season (2nd in NFL)
> Amari Cooper (234, 1st) and CeeDee Lamb (202, 3rd) and Dalton Shultz (199, 4th) all rank top 5 in snaps in trips
> Cooper primarily aligns as the outside trips receiver (171 snaps, 52 more than any other player)
> Lamb and Schultz alternate between the middle (Lamb: 113, Shultz: 60) and inside trips player (Lamb: 82, Schultz: 128)
> Michael Gallup aligns isolated on the backside of trips formations (193 snaps, 49 more than any other player)
Amari Cooper Route Tree - 37 of 53 receptions this season have come on Hitch (17), Out (11) and In (9) routes
> 2019: Ran a Go (33%) or Hitch (24%) route on over half routes (57%) | 2020: 32% Go, 22% Hitch (54% of routes)
> 2020: Cooper has 1 reception on 8 go route targets | 2019: Cooper had 10 receptions (T-5th) on 20 go route targets
> Since 2019: No WR has had more targets (58), receptions (44) or receiving yards (425) on Hitch routes than Cooper
Cooper in Motion - The Cowboys have used Cooper in shift/motion in order to get him the ball this season
> Cooper (in Shift/Motion): 47 routes (2nd in NFL), 16 targets (1st), 14 rec (1st), 154 rec yards (2nd), 34% target rate
Cowboys YAC - The Cowboys have 2 receivers in the top 15 WR in YAC, and a player in both the top 5 of RB and TE
> RB Elliott (240 YAC, 4th) | TE: Shultz (157 YAC, 4th) | WR: Cooper (213 YAC, 8th) | Lamb (169 YAC, 15th)
Michael Gallup - Ranks 4th in air yards/target (16.3) this season (min. 30 targets), up from 12.6 in 2019
> Cooper (89) and Gallup (88) have run more go routes than any other WR has run any other route this season
> Gallup on Go Routes: 5 receptions (T-6th), 11 targets (T-4th), 190 yards (3rd), TD
Hitch Routes - Gallup has also run more hitch routes (81) than any other WR this season (Cooper: 62, 3rd)
> Hitch Routes (2020): Cooper: 17 receptions (T-1st), 150 yards (2nd) | Gallup: 8 receptions, 103 yards
> Gallup has been targeted at half the rate on his hitch routes since Prescott’s injury | Weeks 1-5: 18%, Weeks 6-7: 8%
Gallup at X - Gallup has been used as an isolated receiver more than any other player this season (45% of routes)
> Gallup (Isolated): 132 routes (43 more than any other player), 18 targets (4th), 241 yards (2nd), 1 TD
> Gallup has faced press coverage on 60% of his isolated routes this season (4th-highest in NFL, min. 40 isolated routes)
Gallup’s Route Tree - Gallup’s role as the X receiver limits his route tree to in-breaking, vertical and stopping routes
> Because Gallup is aligned to the backside of the play concept usually, he rarely ever runs an out breaking route
> Gallup Route Tree (Isolated): Go (31%), Hitch (28%), In (14%), Slant (12%), Post (5%), Cross (5%), Out (3%), Corner (2%)
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys in 11 Personnel - The Cowboys offense features 11 personnel on 79% of plays this season, highest in NFL
> Top 5 in 11 Personnel Usage (2020): Cowboys (79%), Bengals (77%), Jets (74%), Bills (74%), Jaguars (73%)
> DAL Offense: Increased their 11 personnel usage in each of the last 5 seasons (up from 59% in 2016 to 79% in 2020)
> Usage by Season - 2016: 59% (16th) | 2017: 61% (16th) | 2018: 63% (15th) | 2019: 67% (8th) | 2020: 79% (1st)
Elliott in 11 Personnel - Elliott sees better opportunities in 11 personnel based on our expected rush yards model
> Since 2019: Elliott is expected to gain 4.4 yards/carry in 11 personnel, 3.6 yards/carry in all other groupings
> Elliott faces a light box (6-or-fewer DEF in box) on 62% of runs in 11 personnel, 17% of runs in all other groupings
Eagles Run Defense - Allowed the 3rd-fewest expected YPC in the NFL this season (3.7), +0.2 RYOE/carry (17th)
Elliott Outperforms Expectation - Exceeds his expected rush yards on 37.7% of carries, the highest rate since 2018
> Pct of Runs Over Expected (min. 200 carries): Elliott (37.7%), C. Carson (37.6%), R. Mostert (37.3%), D. Henry (35.9%)
Defenses Stacking the Box - Defenses have been putting more defenders in the box since Dak Prescott’s injury
> Prescott at QB: 76% light box (6 or fewer), 5% stacked box (8+) | DeNucci/Dalton at QB: 63% light box, 12% stacked box
Cowboys Allowing Pressure - The Cowboys allow the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (35.0%)
> 3 of bottom 5 in NFC East - Giants (43.4%), Cowboys (35.0%), Vikings (33.9%), Jets (33.3%), Eagles (31.9%)
> Among the bottom 5 teams in pressure rate allowed, Cowboys QBs average the fastest time to throw (2.73)
Without Tyron Smith - Since 2016, the Cowboys give up a 32.7% pressure rate without Smith on-field (w/ 28.0%)
> Since 2016: On 3rd & 3+, the Cowboys have a 46.8% pressure rate without Smith on-field (34.6% w/Smith)
> The Cowboys have almost triple the sack rate (14.7%) in the red zone without smith on the field (5.6% w/Smith)
Zack Martin’s Impact - The Cowboys passing offense has struggled without Martin on the field this season
> Martin ON (250 pass plays): +23.2 Total EPA, +0.09 EPA/Play, 25% blitz rate, 4.4% sack rate (2.79 avg time to throw)
> Martin OFF (81 pass plays): -17.2 Total EPA, -0.21 EPA/Play, 36% blitz rate, 11.1% sack rate (2.53 avg time to throw)
> Without Martin on the field, Cowboys QBs average a faster time to throw, face more blitz, sacked at higher rate
Joe Looney Returns - The Cowboys allow a sack on 7.4% of dropbacks without Looney (4.2% sack rate with Looney)
> Looney ON (143 pass plays); +0.08 EPA/Play, 4.2% sack rate | OFF (188 pass plays): -0.03 EPA/Play, 7.4% sack rate
Eagles Blitz Averse - The Eagles have blitzed at a below average rate every season of Jim Schwartz’s tenure as DC
> Blitz Rate (by Season) - 2016: 23.9% (27th) | 2017: 26% (20th) | 2018: 21% (28th) | 2019: 27% (19th) | 2020: 24% (24th)
> Week 7 vs NYG: Eagles DBs combined for 12 pass rushes (3 pressures) | Week 5-6: 5 DB pass rushes | Week 1-4: 34
> Jalen Mills: 21 pass rushes (10 more than next closest PHI DB), 7 pressures (T-2nd among DBs, Jamal Adams 8)
Wide Formations - The Cowboys and Eagles have employed wide-spaced formations this season, ranking in the top 3
> Top 5 (2020): Dolphins (30.1 yards), Cowboys (28.4 yards), Eagles (27.9 yards), Giants (27.8 yards), Bills (27.4 yards)
Eagles Front Four - The Eagles rank in the top 10 in pressure rate on non-blitzes in 5 straight seasons under Schwartz
> QBP % (Non-Blitzes) - 2016: 29.5% (4th) | 2017: 30.1% (5th) | 2018: 28.3% (2nd) | 2019: 30.4% (2nd) | 2020: 26.1% (9th)
Fletcher Cox Regression - Pressure rate by season has sharply declined in each of the last 4 seasons (5.2% in 2020)
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2017: 12.3% | 2018: 11.4% | 2019: 7.8% | 2020: 5.2% pressure rate
> Average pass rush get-off has also regressed - 2017: 0.88 seconds | 2018: 0.96 sec | 2019: 0.95 sec | 2020: 0.97 sec
> The Eagles have a higher team pressure rate without Cox on the field (32.4%) compared to with Cox (27.3%)
Quick Burst - Brandon Graham (0.78s, 7th) and Josh Sweat (0.79s, T-8th) rank top 10 in pass rush get off among EDGE
> Graham & Sweat rank 7th & T-8th among EDGE rushers in get-off, min. 100 pass rushes (Leader: T.J. Watt, 0.65 sec)
> Graham (17 pressures) and Sweat (14) lead the team in pressures, Sweat has a higher pressure rate (11.3% vs 9.0%)
Alex Singleton vs Run - The Eagles allow 5.0 YPC with Singleton on-field this season (88 on), 4.1 YPC without (116 off)
> Over the Eagles last 3 games, the defense allows 5.8 YPC with Singleton on the field (70 on), 3.5 YPC without (21 off)
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
12 Personnel Base - The Eagles usage of 12 personnel has dropped off significantly since losing Goedert & then Ertz
> Dallas Goedert only played 6 snaps in Week 3 before leaving with an foot injury, Zach Ertz hasn’t played since Week 6
> Eagles 12 Personnel Rate - Weeks 1-2: 68% (1st) | Weeks 3-6: 26% (5th) | Week 7: 6% (29th), 2nd-lowest under Peterson*
> TE Richard Rodgers Playtime - Weeks 1-2: 2 snaps (1%) | Weeks 3-6: 109 snaps (41%) | Week 7: 61 snaps (85%)
John Hightower - Hightower’s average route depth (14.7) is the 5th-deepest in the NFL this season (min. 150 routes)
Boston Scott in Pass Game - Carson Wentz & the Eagles passing offense has been more efficient with Scott on-field
> Wentz Passing w/Scott ON (since 2019): 214 plays, +32.8 Pass EPA, +0.15 EPA/Play, 48% success rate
> Wentz Passing w/Scott OFF (since 2019): 736 plays, -58.1 Pass EPA, -0.08 EPA/Play, 42% success rate
Demarcus Lawrence - 4 QB pressures on 23 pass rushes in Week 1, only 8 pressures on 107 pass rushes since Week 2
> Lawrence has been held without a pressure in 2 games in 2020 (Week 2 & 6), had a pressure in every game from 2016-19
> Weeks 1-7 (2019): 21 pressures on 169 pass rushes (12.4%) | Weeks 1-7 (2020): 12 pressures on 130 rushes (9.2%)
Aldon Smith - Team-high 16 QB pressures this season (10.0% pressure rate), has not played since 2015 (pre-NGS)
> Aldon Smith (313, 66% PT) has played more defensive snaps than Everson Griffen (268) and Demarcus Lawrence (260)
Jaylon Smith Blitzing - 2 pressures on 33 blitzes (6.1%) this season (2019: 12 pressures on 71 blitzes, 16.9% QBP rate)
Cowboys Blitz - Generate twice as much pressure when blitzing (39.4%, 2nd) than no blitz (20.2%, 26th) this season
> Cowboys Blitz Rate by Down (2020) - 1st Down: 17% (26th in NFL) | 2nd Down: 29% (13th) | 3rd Down: 40% (11th)
Trevon Diggs - Diggs has been targeted on 23.2% of coverage snaps this season (3rd-highest, min. 150 coverage snaps)
> Diggs as nearest defender: 45 targets (T-4th most), 25 receptions (T-12th most), 450 yards (2nd-most), 2 TD
> Diggs has allowed 2.3 yards per coverage snap this season (Most among DB, min. 150 coverage snaps)
