Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 12 SNF PREVIEW: BEARS AT PACKERS
Aaron Rodgers By the Numbers
Rodgers by QB Tendencies - Rodgers holds longer, attacks downfield and outside the numbers than the average QB
> Rodgers (since 2016): 2.84s avg time to throw (7th-longest), 8.7 air yds/att (8th), 51% of passes outside the numbers (1st)
Low Pressure Against - 1 of 2 QB since 2019 without an INT under pressure (8 TD, 0 INT), Other: Roethlisberger
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2016: 18.6% (4th) | 2017: 20.4% (5th) | 2018: 21.1% (6th) | 2019: 18.5% (3rd) | 2020: 16.3% (2nd)
> Rodgers has been pressured on less than 20% of dropbacks in 9 of 10 games this season (33.3% QBP rate vs TB in Wk 6)
Since Week 6 Loss vs TB - Rodgers has been throwing shorter passes to more open receivers, relying more on YAC
> Weeks 1-6: 9.3 air yds/att, 48% “open” (3+ yds), 50% YAC | Weeks 7-11: 7.5 air yds/att, 58% “open (3+ yds), 54% YAC
Rodgers Deep - Rodgers has thrown deep at his highest rate in five seasons (15.9%, 2nd in NFL), and has been efficient
> Rodgers (Deep): 24 completions (1st), 56 attempts (2nd), 957 yards (1st), 8 TD (T-3rd), 0 INT, +56.4 Total EPA (1st)
> Rodgers throws 89% of his deep passes outside the numbers (6th in NFL), including 6 of his 8 deep TD passes
> Rodgers has 8 completions traveling 50+ yards of air distance (T-most in NFL, Russell Wilson, no other QB over 5)
Rodgers in Rhythm - Rodgers is throwing “in rhythm” (2.5 - 4 seconds time to throw) more often and efficiently in 2020
> Rodgers (2017-19): 35.8% rate (Last), 9.0 YPA (10th), 12.0 air yards/att (4th), +0.19 EPA/dropback (7th), +0.6% CPOE
> Rodgers (2020): 43.5% rate (20th), 11.1 YPA (1st), 12.7 air yards/att (1st), +0.54 EPA/dropback (1st), +5.5% CPOE (5th)
> Most Total EPA “in rhythm” (2020): Rodgers (+84.8), R. Wilson (+59.4), P. Mahomes (+54.1), K. Murray (+49.9)
Rodgers Extending Plays - Rodgers has the most TD passes (5) without an INT on extended dropbacks this season
> Rodgers on Extended Dropbacks (4+ seconds): 18/39, 230 yards, 5 TD (T-most), 0 INT, 15.2% sack rate (4th-lowest)
Play Action Rodgers - Rodgers has used play action more often under Matt LaFleur, and its paid dividends this season
> Rodgers Play Action Rate - 2016: 18% (27th) | 2016: 18% (26th) | 2018: 19% (29th) | 2019: 24% (16th) | 2020: 26% (14th)
> Rodgers on Play Action - 2020: 70.7% comp pct, +0.36 EPA/dropback | 2016-19: 63.1% comp pct, +0.00 EPA/dropback
> Rodgers Play Action (2020): 11 TD (1st), 0 INT, 134.1 passer rating (1st), 9.7% pressure rate (2nd), +33.3 Total EPA (1st)
Rodgers on the Run - Aaron Rodgers has thrown 32 TD passes on the run (8+ MPH) since 2016, most in the NFL
> Rodgers On the Run (2020): 40/61, 418 yards, 6 TD (T-3rd), 0 INT, +9.6% CPOE (1st), +0.41 EPA/dropback (1st)
Targeting Out-Breaking Routes - Rodgers leads all qualified QB in comp pct (83.3%) on out-breaking routes this season
> Rodgers ranks 2nd in Comp Pct Over Expected on [flat, out & corner] routes (+9.7%) behind only R. Fitzpatrick (+9.8%)
> Out-Breaking Passes (2020): 15 TD (1st, next closest 9), 83.3% comp pct (1st), +9.7% CPOE (2nd), +49.3 Total EPA (1st)
> 2020: Rodgers is 21/24, 151 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT (+20.9% CPOE) when targeting Davante Adams on out-breaking routes
Where Davante Adams Excels as a Receiver
Adams Efficiency - Adams has gained 3.2 yards/route this season (2nd-most in the NFL, min. 150 routes)
> Top 5 in Yards/Route (min. 150 routes): J. Jefferson (3.2), Adams (3.2), G. Kittle (2.9), A. Kamara (3.0), J. Jones (2.7)
Adams Isolated in Trips - Aligned as the single receiver on 30% of his routes this season (9th-highest, min. 200 routes)
> Adams Isolated (2020): 15 receptions, 261 yards, TD on 22 targets (80 routes) | 3.3 yards/route (6th, min. 50 iso routes)
> Adams is targeted at a higher rate (36%, only player over 30%) of his routes in trips than he is when he is isolated (28%)
Adams Iso Route Tree - Over half of Adams routes isolated are go routes (31, 39%) and hitches (11, 14%)
> Adams is especially effective on in-breaking routes when isolated (8 rec, 139 yards on 9 targets, 26 routes, 35% target)
Adams Outside the Numbers - Since 2016, Adams leads the NFL in TDs outside the numbers (29), 2nd in rec & yards
> Outside Numbers (Ranks since 2016): 212 receptions (2nd, Hopkins 241), 2,978 yards (2nd, Hopkins 3,133), 29 TD (1st)
> Most TD Outside Numbers (since 2016): Adams (29), Mike Evans (24), Tyreek Hill (23), Tyler Lockett (22), 2 tied (21)
Adams Diverse Route Tree - Adams has gained 30+ yards on 9 different routes this season (T-most among WR)
> Adams Yards by Routes - Go (281), In (120), Cross (108), Out (88), Screen (82), Slant (82), Hitch (60), Flat (32), Corner (31)
Adams on Out Routes - Targeted on almost half of out routes since the start of 2019 (43 targets on 93 routes, 46.2%)
> Out Routes (Since 2019): 43 targets (T-6th), 33 rec (3rd), 300 yards (7th), 47.2% target rate (7th among WR, min. 50 routes)
> Adams ranks 5th among 65 WRs in average separation on out routes since 2019 (3.3 yards), min. 15 targets
Out-Breaking in Red Zone - 5 of 7 TDs inside opponent 12-yard line have come on out-breaking routes (Out, Flat, Corner)
> Adams on Out-Breaking Routes (Inside Opp 12): 12 routes, 7 targets, 7 receptions, 5 TD (targeted on 58% of routes)
> Adams on All Other Routes (Inside Opp 12): 19 routes, 4 targets, 3 receptions, 2 TD (targeted on 21% of routes)
> Adams TDs by Route - Out 2, Corner 2, Flat 2 (out-breaking), Go 2, WR Screen 1, Slant 1 (only TD on an in-breaking route)
Adams in Red Zone - Adams has been targeted at a top 5 rate in the red zone for the fourth consecutive season
> Adams Red Zone Targets/Route - 2017: 44% (4th, min. 20 rz routes) | 2018: 44% (1st) | 2019: 48% (2nd) | 2020: 39% (3rd)
Adams on 3rd & Manageable (Since 2019) - 12 receptions on 12 targets on out routes on 3rd & < 7 (19 routes)
> Since 2019, No player has more targets (12) and receptions (12) than Adams on any single route type on 3rd & < 7
> Adams 3rd & < 7 (Since 2019): 63% target rate on out routes (12 tgts, 19 routes), 31% all other routes (23 tgt, 74 routes)
> Adams is targeted less often on 3rd & long situations (21% target rate) than 3rd & less than 7 (38% target rate)
Adams vs Press - Adams has been targeted on 38.7% of his press routes (Highest in NFL, min. 50 press routes)
> Beats press with lateral quickness instead of straight-line speed - 6.52 MPH avg top speed within 1 sec (3rd-slowest)
> Adams reached the 11th-fastest average top speed (15.13 MPH) within 3 seconds of press routes (min. 50 press routes)
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Aaron Jones Success Inside Tackles - +154 rushing yards over expected on inside runs since 2019, 2nd-most in NFL
> Top 5 (since 2019): R. Jones (+236), A. Jones (+154), C. McCaffrey (+152), C. Hyde (+141), D. Henry (+136)
Aaron Jones in Passing Game - Targeted at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (43 targets on 137 routes, 31.4%)
> Top 4 in Target Rate (min. 100 routes): A. Kamara (35.7%), D. Adams (33.5%), K. Allen (32.4%), A. Jones (31.4%)
> Jones has been targeted for 113 air yards (2nd among RB) | 2.6 air yds/tgt (4th among RB, min. 15 targets)
Packers Motion - The Packers rank 8th in shift/motion usage (59%) this season, 5th-largest increase (+10%) from 2019
> The Packers rank 2nd in the NFL in motion success rate (57.3%), behind only Seattle (57.6%) | 2nd in TD w/motion (24)
> RB Tyler Ervin: Has gone in motion/shifted on 70 of 129 snaps this season (54%, 1 of 2 players > 50%, min. 50 snaps)
> Top 5 RB in Rush Yards after Shift/Motion: A. Jones (77), E. Elliott (76), D. Montgomery (75), J. Jackson (47), Hyde (45)
Shift/Motion to Create Targets - The Packers have shown a tendencies to target their players after they shift/motion
> Target rate w/shift/motion: Adams (47.1%, 4th, min. 10 routes), J. Williams (40.0%, 18th), A. Jones (38.1%), Ervin (30.6%)
MVS as Deep Threat - Valdes-Scantling has caught Rodgers five-longest completions by air distance this season
> Wk 9 vs SF: 52-yd TD (Air Dist: 60.3 yds, 6th-longest completion this season) | Wk 1 vs MIN: 45-yd TD (AD: 54.8 yds)
> Wk 10 vs JAX: 78-yd TD (AD: 54.6 yds) | Wk 11 vs IND: 47 yd rec (AD: 54.6 yds) | Wk 2 vs DET: 41 yd rec (AD: 52.6 yds)
MVS Air Distance - Tied for the most receptions (5) and TD (3) on 50+ air distance passes in a season since 2016
> Most 50+ yard air distance receptions (2020): Valdez-Scantling (5), DK Metcalf (3), Tyron Johnson (3), David Moore (3)
> Valdez-Scantling on 50+ air distance (since 2019):16 targets (1st), 8 receptions (1st), 415 yards (1st), 3 TD (1st)
Fantastic Front Four - The Bears have generated the 4th-highest pressure rate on non-blitzes (28.1%) this season
> Top 5 (2020) - Steelers (34.8%), Saints (29.0%), Browns (28.3%), Bears (28.1%), Bills (27.2%)
Bears Improved Pass Rush - 29.1% team pressure rate this season, 5th in NFL (23.4% in 2019, 27th in NFL)
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2018: 30.1% (2nd in NFL) | 2019: 23.4% (27th in NFL) | 2020: 29.1% (5th in NFL)
> The Bears generate +5.7% more pressure this season, 2nd-largest increase in NFL behind only PIT (+13.3%)
> Akiem Hicks missed 11 games in 2019 due to injury | Playtime by Season - 2018: 74% | 2019: 18% | 2020: 79%
Akiem Hicks - The Bears pass rush has been more effective with Hicks on the field since 2018 than without Hicks
> Hicks ON-Field (894 dropbacks): 30.8% QBP %, 7.6% sack rate | Hicks OFF-Field (744): 23.4% QBP %, 4.7% sack rate
> CHI has 9 more INT (26) and twice the sacks (68) with Hicks on just 150 more dropbacks than without him (35 sacks)
Hicks Run Defense - The Bears have defended runs inside the tackles better with Hicks on the field since 2018
> Hicks ON-Field (248 runs): 3.6 YPC, 44.7% success rate | Hicks OFF-Field (214 runs): 4.1 YPC, 54.1% success rate
> The Bears have a 19.4% stuff rate with Hicks on the field, just a 13.6% stuff rate without Hicks
Robert Quinn - Quinn has had a top 20 pressure rate in three consecutive seasons with a different team each season
> 2018 (MIA): 11.5% pressure rate (17th, min. 300 pass rushes) | 2019 (DAL): 14.0% (3rd) | 2020: 12.4% (14th, min. 150)
> Quinn has forced 3 turnovers by pressure this season, trailing only M. Garrett (7), Shaq Barrett (5), Emmanuel Ogbah (4)
> Quinn has played on twice as many pass plays (194) than run plays (97) | 66.7% pass rate (8th-highest among EDGE)
Roquan Smith - Smith has 14 hustle stops this season (2nd in NFL) and has 7 pressures on 32 pass rushes (21.9%)
> Most Hustle Stops (2020): L. David (16), Smith (14), D. White (13), D. Jones/B. Martinez/A. Johnson/S. Thompson (10)
Smith in Coverage - Offenses have generated -23.2 EPA when Smith is the nearest defender in 2020 (2nd-best in NFL)
> Lowest Targeted EPA (2020): B. Callahan (-24.0), Smith (-23.2), D. Williams (-21.3), X. Howard (-16.5), C. Sutton (-16.0)
> Teammate Danny Trevathan has been the opposite - 35 tgt, 28 rec, 338 yds (+16.7 EPA, 8th-highest among LB)
Shutdown Smith - Allowed 2.9 yards per target this season, lowest of any player in a season since 2016 (min. 40 tgts)
> Lowest yards/target in a season: Smith (2020): 2.9, W. Jackson (2017): 3.2, H. Smith (2017): 3.6, L. David (2020): 3.6
> Smith (among LB, min. 20 targets): 2.9 yards per target (1st), 75.5% coverage success rate (1st)
Tight Coverage - The Bears are the only team in the NFL to allow an average target separation below 3 yards (2.8)
> CHI Defense (2020): allow the lowest open throw rate (33.7%) and force the highest tight window throw pct (20.0%)
Jaylon Johnson - Allowed a 50.0% comp pct this season (5th-lowest by a rookie DB since 2016, min. 50 targets)
> Johnson: 28 rec, 56 tgts, 485 yards, 2 TD, 50.0% comp pct (5th among DB, min. 35 targets), 23.2% ball hawk rate (5th)
Bears Pass Defense - The Bears defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest TD passes of 10+ air yards through Week 11
> vs 10+ Air Yards: 4 TD allowed (2nd in NFL), 9.3 YPA (5th), 2.1 yards avg receiver separation (5th)
Khalil Mack in 3rd season in Chicago
Mack in Chicago - Mack has not been able to repeat his success rushing the passer of his first season with the Bears
> Pressure Rate by Season - 2018: 14.1% (5th, min. 300 pass rushes) | 2019: 10.5% (24th) | 2020: 10.4% (32nd, min. 150)
> Mack’s pressure rate has cut by almost two thirds in his last 5 games: 14.3% in Weeks 1-5, 5.0% in Weeks 6-11
Khalil Mack on 3rd Down - 16 pressures (T-7th in NFL), 15.0% pressure rate (24th, min. 40 pass rushes on 3rd down)
> Since 2018: 17.1% pressure rate on 3rd down from EDGE alignment, 3rd in NFL (min. 200 pass rushes)
> 8 of Mack’s 14 pressures vs the Packers since joining the Bears have come on third down (2.5 of 3.5 sacks)
Mack vs Packers - Mack has had 4+ pressures in 3 of his 4 games vs the Packers since joining the Bears in 2018
> Mack vs GB (since 2018): 14 pressures, 1 turnover caused by pressure, 3.5 sacks on 130 pass rushes (10.8% QBP rate)
> Mack has been used as more of a pure pass rusher vs the Packers (96% blitz rate) compared to other opponents (86%)
Mack Versatility - Mack has produced in the run game (10 run stuffs, T-2nd among edge), and pass (29 pressures, 14th)
> Mack is one of ten edge rushers to have an INT this season | Allowed 5 rec, 69 yards on 9 targets (2 passes defensed)
Nick Foles By the Numbers
Comparing Foles & Trubisky - Foles has been more of a pocket passer, more decisive on passes than Trubisky
> Foles: 88% of passes inside the tackle box (14th-highest in NFL), 2.52s avg time to throw (4th-quickest), 76% shotgun
> Trubisky: 81% of passes inside the tackle box, 2.90s avg time to throw, 49% shotgun
> By Air Yards - Foles: 7.8 air yards/attempt on 311 attempts this season | Trubisky: 10.2 air yards/attempt on 86 attempts
Tight Window Throws - Foles has forced passes into tight windows at the 3rd-highest rate in NFL this season (20.9%)
> Top 5 in Tight Window Throw Pct: Burrow (21.5%), Fitzpatrick (20.9%), Foles (20.9%), Tannehill (18.9%), Cousins (18.9%)
> Trubisky (31.4%) tight window pct on 86 attempts (Not enough pass attempts to qualify for league rank)
> For reference, quarterbacks average -0.24 EPA per attempt on tight window passes, +0.15 EPA per attempt on non-TW
Conservative on 3rd Down - Foles is 1 of 7 QBs to average fewer air yards than the sticks on 3rd down this season
> Foles on 3rd Down (2020): -0.2 air yards to the sticks (25th out of 31 QBs), 52% of throws short of sticks (26th)
> Top 6 3rd Down SoS Rate (2020): Bridgewater (58%), Newton (58%), Brees (56%), Mullens (55%), Jones (55%), Foles (52%)
Foles When he Holds - Under pressure on 47.4% of dropbacks when holds for 2.5+ seconds (6th-highest rate in NFL)
> Top 6 QBP % (2.5+ sec): Jones (58.9%), Darnold (50.0%), Burrow (49.5%), Prescott (48.9%), Mullens (48.5%), Foles (47.4%)
> Foles averages the 6th-most air yards per attempt (12.5) among all quarterbacks when holding for 2.5+ seconds
Foles vs Blitz - Foles has only thrown 1 INT vs the blitz since 2016, tied for fewest among QB with 100+ att vs blitz
> Foles vs Blitz (since 2016): 121/187, 1460 yards, 13 TD, 1 INT, 109.5 passer rating (4th in NFL, Mahomes, Brees, Jackson)
> Foles vs Blitz (since 2016): +0.08 EPA/dropback (18th in NFL) | Trubisky (career): -0.19 EPA/dropback vs blitz
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Chicago Comebacks - The Bears have entered the 4th quarter with just a 33% win probability on average this season
> Lowest average win entering Q4 among teams with a 0.500 record or better through Week 11 since 2016 (CIN, 2018: 38%)
> Lowest Win Probability Entering Q4 (2020): Jets (17%), Jaguars (19%), Cowboys (31%), Eagles (32%), Bears (33%)
> Bears have 2 wins this season where they reached a win probability below 3% this season (Most in a season since 2016)
> Week 1 vs DET: Had only a 2% win probability at 7:04 in Q4 | Week 3 vs ATL: Had only a 1% win probability at 8:28 in Q4
Bears OL Injuries - 10 different offensive linemen have played at least 60 offensive snaps over their last 4 games
> Ifedi & Coward 254, Leno 193, Bars 125, Mustipher 95, Whitehair 85, Hambright 74, Massie 65, Spriggs 64, Leno 61
No Space for Work - David Montgomery has been expected to gain 3.6 YPC this season (4th-lowest, min. 50 carries)
> Montgomery has gained nearly the exact amount of rushing yards (472) compared to expected (471), per xRush model
> Montgomery (2020): 3.6 yards per carry | 3.6 expected yards per carry | +0.0 yards per carry over expected
Montgomery Running Style - Montgomery runs outside the tackles on 63% of carries (9th-highest min. 50 carries)
> Montgomery is the only RB (45) with 50+ carries to run to the weak side more (50%, 1st) than the strong side (47%, 43rd)
> Montgomery takes 4.3 yards of total distance to gain a yard (“efficiency”), the 6th-most among 45 RB with 50+ carries
> “Efficiency” is the total distance traveled for every yard gained, with a lower number indicating a north/south running style
Three-TE Sets - The Bears have used 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) on 8% of plays this season (6th-highest in NFL)
Allen Robinson - Robinson has been targeted 75 times in tight windows since the start of 2019, 2nd-most in the NFL
> Top 5 (since 2019): DaVante Parker (77), Robinson (75), Kenny Golladay (61), Mike Williams (56), Julio Jones (53)
> Robinson has faced press coverage on 32% of routes in 2020 (16th-highest among WR, min. 150 routes)
> Robinson vs GB: Robinson has not been shadowed by the Packers in any of his four matchups as a member of the Bears
Four-Man Rush Rebound - The Packers pressure rate on non-blitzes has almost doubled in their last 2 games
> Packers Pressure Rate on Non-Blitzes - Weeks 1-8: 16.9% (31st) | Weeks 9-10: 32.9% (5th) | 2019: 32.1% (1st)
Za’Darius Smith - 1 of 4 defenders to have 3+ games with 6+ pressures this season (T.J. Watt 4, Donald 3, O. Vernon 3)
> Smith has generated 6 pressures in 3 of his last 6 games since Week 4 (Wk 1-3: 5.4% QBP Rate | Wk 4-10: 13.2%)
Za’Darius Smith On the Interior - Most effective as a pass rusher when aligned as an interior DL in past 2 seasons
> Pressure Rate by Alignment (Since 2019): 17.3% as Interior DL (1st in NFL, min. 200 pass rushes), 11.7% as EDGE (23rd)
> Highest Pressure Rate at iDL (Since 2019): Z. Smith (17.3%), S. Tuitt (14.4%), A. Donald (12.0%), J. Allen (10.8%)
> Smith is tied for the 3rd-quickest iDL pass rush get-off at 0.90 seconds (min. 200 pass rushes)
Za’Darius Situational Alignment - Bumps inside on third down (41% at iDL) compared to early downs (19%) since 2019
Alexander Island - Alexander has shadowed a receiver for over 65% of their routes in 5 of 9 games this season
> Week 1 at MIN: shadowed Adam Thielen on 22 of 27 routes (82%), allowed 4 receptions, 66 yards, TD, INT on 6 targets
> Week 4 vs ATL: shadowed Calvin Ridley on 22 of 27 routes (82%), allowed 0 receptions on 3 targets
> Week 6 at TB: shadowed Mike Evans on 19 of 24 routes (79%), allowed 0 receptions on 1 target
> Week 7 at HOU: shadowed Will Fuller on 28 of 41 routes (68%), allowed 0 receptions on 1 target
> Week 8 vs MIN: shadowed Justin Jefferson on 11 of 14 routes (79%), allowed 1 reception, 12 yards on 2 targets
> Left Week 9 game vs SF with concussion, did not play in Week 10
Alexander in Coverage - Alexander has allowed 5.5 yards/target this season (6th among outside CBs, min. 30 targets)
> Alexander has forced a tight window on 35.9% of his targets (4th among 66 outside CBs, min. 30 targets)
Alexander Cushion - Alexander gives wide-aligned receivers 8.1 yards of pre-snap cushion on average this season
> Most Pre-Snap Cushion vs Wide (min. 150 routes): R. Douglas (8.4), Alexander (8.1), J. Joseph (8.0), B. Roby (7.9)
