Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 13 PREVIEW: BRONCOS AT CHIEFS
Patrick Mahomes by the Numbers
MVP Case - The leader in Total Pass EPA has won MVP in every season in the Next Gen Stats Era (since 2016)
> Ryan (2016): +184.0 | Brady (2017): +132.9 | Mahomes (2018): +195.1 | Jackson (2019): +132.9 | Mahomes (2020): +155.2
> Top 5 (2020): P. Mahomes (+155.2), A. Rodgers (+116.1), D. Watson (+89.5), R. Tannehill (+74.2), J. Allen (+71.1)
Aggressiveness - Mahomes has been among the most effective deep QBs since Week 5 (only 3 completions Wks 1-4)
>Since Wk 5: 13% deep pct, 16/36, 556 yards (3rd), 7 TD (1st) (+6.5% CPOE) | Wks 1-4: 8% deep pct, 3/12, 123 yards, 3 TD (-1.9%)
Posts & Corners vs Go Routes - Mahomes has had more success targeting posts & corners over last 2 seasons
> Since 2019 - Post: 21/36 (58.3%, +11.9% CPOE) | Corner: 23/39 (59.0%, +11.5% CPOE) | Go: 29/80 (36.3%, -2.1% CPOE)
> Mahomes among best targeting corner routes since 2019 - 8 TD (1st), 0 INT, +11.5% CPOE (6th), +44.3 Total EPA (1st)
Go Route Success in Week 12 - 6 completions on go routes vs TB (had 7 completions on go routes over first 9 games)
> Tyreek Hill accounted for 5 of 6 go route completions and 6 of 8 go-route attempts (173 yards, 2 TD on go routes)
> Has not been able to match 2018 success targeting Go’s - 2018: 21/46 (45.7%) | 2019: 16/48 (33.3%) | 2020: 13/31 (40.6%)
Mahomes Behind LOS - Mahomes has thrown behind the LOS on 20%+ of his passes in each season as a starter
> Mahomes Pct of Attempts Behind LOS - 2018: 22% (2nd in NFL) | 2019: 21% (6th) | 2020: 20% (7th)
> Mahomes has thrown 9 TD passes on screen passes since 2018 (6 to RB, 1 to WR, 2 to TE), 2 more than any other QB
Mahomes by Air Yards - Mahomes throws shorter by air yards this season compared to first two seasons as a starter
> Mahomes (2020): 8.4 AY/A (12th in NFL), 11% deep pass pct (12th), +1.8 air yds past the sticks on 3rd down (14th)
> Mahomes (2018-19): 8.9 AY/A (6th in NFL), 15% deep pass pct (4th), +3.1 air yds past the sticks on 3rd down (4th)
Mahomes Extends Plays - 2,020 yards when time to throw is greater than 4 seconds since 2018 (Most in NFL)
> Top 4 in Pass Yards on Extended Plays (4+ seconds): Mahomes (2,020), Wilson (1,871), Watson (1,804), Rodgers (1,616)
> Only QB to generate positive Expected Points Added on extended plays since 2018 (+0.07 EPA/dropback, NFL Avg: -0.55)
Mahomes Security Blanket - Travis Kelce is tied for the most targets on extended dropbacks (14) in the NFL this season
> Kelce on extended dropback targets: 7 receptions (T-2nd), 113 yards (1st among TE), TD on 14 targets (T-1st)
> KC Target Distribution (Extended Dropbacks): Kelce (14), Robinson (9), Edwards-Helaire (6), Hill/Watkins/Hardman (4)
> KC Target Distribution (“In Rhythm”): Hill (47), Kelce (39), Robinson (22), Edwards-Helaire (18), Hardman (17), Watkins (14)
Against No Pressure - Mahomes is tied with Brees & Carr for the fewest interceptions when kept clean this season (1)
> Mahomes not Under Pressure (2020): 1 INT (T-1st), 123.8 passer rating (1st), +174.0 Total EPA (1st), +0.49 EPA/DB (1st)
More Play Action - Mahomes has used play action on 30%+ of dropbacks in five straight games (34% since Week 7)
> Mahomes Play Action Rate - Weeks 1-6: 19% (26th in NFL) | Since Week 7: 33% (3rd); 48/70, 637 yds, 5 TD
> Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA/dropback without play action (+0.37), 6th on play action dropbacks (+0.31)
Pop Passes - Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdowns on pop passes (3) for the second time in his career (2018: 3 TD)
> Mahomes on Pop Passes - 2018: 9/9, 78 yards, 3 TD (1st) | 2019: 4/4, 8 yards | 2020: 6/6, 54 yards, 3 TD (1st)
> Tyreek Hill (8 rec, 48 yds, 2 TD) & Mecole Hardman (4 rec, 47 yds, 2 TD) have been the main targets on pop passes
Mahomes vs Blitz - Mahomes has been blitzed at the lowest rate (20%) since 2018 (just 1 of 19 INT vs blitz)
> Mahomes vs Blitz (since 2018): 9.1 YPA (1st in NFL), 126.7 passer rating (1st), +0.45 EPA/dropback (1st)
> Mahomes targets flat routes on 20% of attempts vs blitz this season (2nd-highest), corner routes on 11% of attempts (1st)
Broncos Blitz Tendencies - Blitz less than league average in both seasons under Fangio (2020: 19th | 2019: 27th)
> Broncos Blitz: 27.3% pressure rate (24th), 10.0% sack rate (6th), 5.6 yards/pass attempt (1st) | 27% blitz rate (19th)
> Broncos No Blitz: 25.6% pressure rate (11th), 6.7% sack rate (5th), 7.1 yards/pass attempt (16th)
> Fangio vs Mahomes (3 games): 23% blitz rate, DEN never had more than 10 QBP or 30%+ pressure rate
The Chiefs Speedy Skill Position Players
Tyreek Hill on Crossing Routes - 10 receiving TD on crossing routes since 2018 (1st in the NFL, Cooper Kupp: 9)
> Hill (since 2018): 8 of 10 receiving TD on crossing routes have come from slot (7) or tight (1) alignment (only 2 TD wide)
> Hill on Crossers (Since 2018): 46 rec, 58 tgts, 622 yds, 10 TD, 1 INT (143.8 receiver rating), +9.8% CROE, 3.2 yds/route
Hill’s Explosive First Step - 10.01 MPH average top speed within 1 second of a route, fastest in the NFL (min. 200 routes)
> 1-Second Avg Top Speed (min. 200 routes) - T. Hill (10.12 MPH), M. Hardman (9.95 MPH), A.J. Brown (9.67 MPH)
> 1-Second Avg Top Speed on Go Routes (min. 40 routes): Hill (10.73 MPH), M. Hall (10.07 MPH), T. Patrick (10.00 MPH)
> Hill is responsible for 3 of the top 5 top speeds reached within 1 second of a go route this season (Hardman: fastest)
Hill Deep - Hill has 25 TD receptions on deep targets since 2016, 6 more than any other player (Antonio Brown: 19)
> Most Deep TD Receptions (since 2016): Hill (25), A. Brown (19), Kenny Stills (18), DeAndre Hopkins (17), Mike Evans (17)
Speedy Receivers - Hardman and Hill have the fastest average top speeds as a ball carrier since 2019 (min. 30 touches)
> Top 4 (since 2019): Hardman (16.21 MPH), Hill (16.18 MPH), Valdes-Scantling (15.98 MPH), J. Jeudy (15.85 MPH)
Versatile Route Production - Kelce has gained 200 yards on 5 different routes since 2019 (2 more than any other TE)
> Kelce Yards by Route - Cross: 396 (1st among TE), Hitch: 393 (1st), Out: 322 (1st), In: 247 (1st), Corner: 247 (2nd)
Travis Kelce Isolated - Kelce has aligned as the Isolated-Y on 30% of his routes this season, the only TE over 20%
> Top 5 (min. 100 routes): Kelce (30%), Mo Alie-Cox (19%), Darren Waller (14%), Zach Ertz (12%), Logan Thomas (12%)
> Kelce has almost double the production aligned as the Iso-Y than any other TE since 2019
> Kelce as Iso-Y (since 2019): 48 rec (Waller 2nd: 27), 69 targets (Waller: 38), 691 yards (Waller: 305), 3 TD (1st)
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Going in Motion - The Chiefs use shifts/motion on 64% of offensive plays this season (3rd in NFL), 30 TD (most in NFL)
> Most TD using Shift/Motion (2020): Chiefs (30), Packers (29), 49ers (23), Titans (23), Raiders/Vikings/Buccaneers (20)
11 Personnel on 3rd Down - The Chiefs use 11 personnel on 84% of plays (8th-highest in NFL), 8.5 YPP (3rd in NFL)
> 2019: The Chiefs used 11 personnel on only 64% of 3rd down plays (27th-highest in NFL)
Le’Veon Bell - Bell has faced light boxes at twice the rate with the Chiefs (75%) than he did with the Jets (32%)
> Utilized his patient style more with the Chiefs - Avg Time to LOS (since 2016) - KC: 3.21s | NYJ: 2.85s | PIT: 3.08s
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Edwards-Helaire has gained 509 rush yards vs light boxes in 2020 (39 more than any other RB)
> Edwards-Helaire has gained +10 RYOE vs light boxes this season, -34 RYOE rushing vs 7+ defenders in the box
Vic Fangio’s Defensive Philosophy - Fangio invites offenses to run by employing light boxes (6-or-fewer defenders)
> Fangio Light Box Rate - 2016 (CHI): 78% (2nd) | 2017 (CHI): 68% (1st) | 2018 (CHI): 81% (1st) | 2019 (DEN): 71% (4th)
> Top Light Box Rate (2020): Rams* (84%), Broncos (78%), Giants (75%), Packers (71%), Browns (67%)
> *Rams Defensive Coordinator Brandon Staley coached under Vic Fangio in Denver and Chicago
Disciplined Run D - Despite light boxes, the Broncos only allow 23.4% of handoffs to exceed their expected rush yards
> Lowest % of Rushes Above Expectation: Broncos (23.4%), Steelers (24.9%), Rams (25.3%), Jets (26.8%), 49ers (27.4%)
> The Chiefs average the 2nd-most expected rush yards (4.8) on handoffs, face the highest light box rate on runs (64%)
Brady Chubb - Career-high 12.9% pressure rate this season (all three seasons in NFL career over 10% pressure rate)
> 2018: 45 QBP on 400 rushes (11.3%) | 2019: 10 QBP on 97 rushes (10.3%) | 2020: 37 QBP on 286 rushes (12.9%)
> 1 of 15 DL w/pressure rate over 10% in each of the last 3 seasons (min. 90 pass rushes) | Chubb (2019): Torn ACL
Chubb’s Consistency as Pass Rusher - Chubb has gone 8 straight games with a pressure rate over 10% (since Week 4)
> Since Week 4, the only game Chubb finished with fewer than 3 pressures was Week 7 against the Chiefs (2 pressures)
> Chubb Pass Rush Ranks (among EDGE, min. 100 rushes): 37 pressures (5th), 12.9% pressure rate (9th), 7.5 sacks (T-8th)
Justin Simmons - Forces a PBU or INT on 27.5% of targets since 2019, 5th-highest rate among DB (min. 50 targets)
> Top 5 (since 2019): J. Bates (32.8%), H. Smith (31.5%), M. Williams (31.4%), M. Fitzpatrick (29.4%), J. Simmons (27.5%)
Ironman - Simmons has not missed a defensive snap since Week 14, 2017 (Longest active streak, incl. playoffs)
> Top 5 Active Streaks: Simmons (2,755), Devin White (1,093), Bobby Wagner (1,023), Anthony Harris (849), Vonn Bell (792)
Bryce Callahan - Ranks in the top 2 among CB as the nearest defender in several coverage metrics this season
> Ranks among CB (min. 25 tgts): 0 TD allowed (T-1st), 3.7 yards/tgt (1st), 46.9 passer rating (2nd), -25.6 Target EPA (1st)
> Top 5 CB in Target EPA: B. Callahan (-25.6), D. Williams (-23.1), X. Howard (-20.9), C. Sutton (-16.0), X. Rhodes (-15.5)
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Drew Lock’s Aggressive Style - Lock leads the NFL in air yards/attempt (9.9) and deep pass rate (16%) this season
> Most Air Yards/Attempt (2020): Lock (9.9), Baker Mayfield (9.3), Carson Wentz (9.1), Kirk Cousins (9.1), Tom Brady (9.0)
> Lock Tendency Ranks: 10% of passes behind LOS (32nd), 16% deep (1st), 18.7% tight window throw rate (4th-highest)
Lack of RB Screen Game - Lock is the only qualified QB (out of 32) that hasn’t thrown an RB screen pass this season
Mistakes on Quick Throws - Highest INT rate on quick passes this season (5.7% INT rate when time to throw < 2.5 sec)
> Highest Quick Pass INT % (2020): Lock (5.7%), L. Jackson (3.6%), T. Brady (3.1%), S. Darnold (3.1%), R. Fitzpatrick (3.0%)
Struggles Throwing Deep - Lock ranks last in Total Pass EPA when throwing deep (-23.5) since entering NFL in 2019
> Lock Deep (out of 36 QBs since 2019): 1 TD (T-35th), 23.6% comp pct (33rd), -8.5% CPOE (32nd), -23.5 Pass EPA (36th)
Lock Play Action - 19% play action rate (26th out of 32 QBs), more efficient on play action (8.9 YPA) than no PA (6.1)
> Lock on Play Action (2020): 8.9 YPA (9th), 109.3 passer rating (11th), +0.36 EPA/dropback (2nd), +3.9% CPOE (10th)
> Lock without Play Action (2020): 6.1 YPA (30th), 57.7 passer rating (32nd), +0.35 EPA/dropback (31st), -6.4% CPOE (31st)
3rd Down Passing Without Courtland Sutton - 117.2 passer rating on 3rd down with Sutton (69.9 passer rating without)
> Lock on 3rd Down (Career) - Sutton ON (46 att): 117.2 passer rating, +8.5% CPOE | Sutton OFF (64 att): 69.9, -0.2% CPOE
> Lock forces a pass into a tight window on 3rd down on 15% with Sutton on-field, 25% of attempts without Sutton
Melvin Gordon - Gordon has 19 TD against stacked boxes (8+ defenders) since 2017, 4th in the NFL in that span
> Top 5 TD vs stacked boxes (since 2017): D. Henry (30), M. Ingram (22), T. Gurley (22), M. Gordon (19), L. Fournette (17)
Jerry Jeudy’s First Step - 9.50 MPH average top speed within 1 second of a route, 8th-fastest in the NFL (min. 200 routes)
> Jeudy has the 3rd-fastest average top speed within 1 second of a route vs press (8.79 MPH) | Hill: 8.90 MPH (1st)
> Jeudy faces the 7th-lowest tight window target rate vs press coverage this season (7th-lowest, min. 20 tight window tgts)
Noah Fant YAC - Ranks 2nd in average YAC per reception since 2019 (7.6 yards) among TE, min. 40 receptions
> Top 5: Jonnu Smith (7.7), Noah Fant (7.6), George Kittle (7.2), Jordan Akins (6.6), T.J. Hockenson (6.4)
Max Blitzes - The Chiefs send 6+ pass rushers on 19% of dropbacks this season, more than twice the NFL Average (8%)
> Highest Max Blitz Rate (6+ Pass Rushes): Chiefs (19%), Cardinals (16%), Bills (15%), Steelers (14%), Buccaneers (14%)
> Lock has struggled vs max blitzes in his career: 10/26, 223 yards, TD, 4 INT (2nd-most), 3 sacks, -28.5 Total EPA (35th)
> Highest INT Rate vs Max Blitzes (since 2019): Drew Lock (15.4%), Joe Flacco (7.9%), Sam Darnold (6.5%), N. Foles (6.3%)
Ineffective Blitzes - The Chiefs blitz at the 3rd-highest rate (41%) but have the 2nd-lowest pressure rate on blitz (21.5%)
> The Chiefs are 1 of 3 teams to have a lower pressure rate on blitzes (21.5%, 31st) than non-blitzes (22.0%, 21st)
Consistent Lack of Pressure - The Chiefs are 1 of 2 teams to have 0 games with a team pressure rate over 30% (CIN)
> Pass rush has failed to convert pressure into sacks on 3rd Down - Week 1-4: 6 sacks, 11 QBP | Weeks 5-12: 1 sack, 18 QBP
Chris Jones Burst - Jones ranks 3rd in average pass rush get-off among interior DL (0.90 seconds) since 2019
> Top 4 IDL (min. 200 rushes): Aaron Donald (0.86s), Taven Bryan (0.89s), Chris Jones (0.90s), Henry Anderson (0.91s)
> Jones Ranks among IDL (since 2019): 65 QB pressures (4th), 10.1% pressure rate (6th, min. 200 pass rushes)
> Jones (2020): 31 pressures (team-high by 16), 5.5 sacks (team-high) on 268 pass rushes, 11.6% pressure rate
Chiefs in Dime - Top 5 in Dime personnel usage for the second straight season (2019: 32%, 5th | 2020: 36%, 2nd)
Chiefs Downfield Defense - The Chiefs rank top 5 in comp pct & passer rating allowed on passes of 10+ air yards
> KC Defense vs 10+ Air Yards: 41.7% comp pct (3rd), 8 INT (T-3rd), 75.6 passer rating allowed (5th)
Chiefs in Press Coverage - CBs align in press coverage on 50% vs wide aligned routes (highest in NFL, NFL Avg 24%)
> Highest Press Rate vs Wide Routes (2020) - Chiefs (50%), Raiders (41%), Lions (35%), Saints (35%), Dolphins (34%)
> Against slot receivers, the Chiefs line up in press on 26% of routes, 3rd-highest rate in NFL (behind DET 33% & BAL 31%)
> The Chiefs have been less effective in press vs slot/wide this season (56.3% coverage success) vs 2019 (66.1% success)
Receiver Separation Allowed - The Chiefs allow the 4th-most target separation (3.6 yards) in the NFL this season
> 3rd Down: 2nd-most target separation on 3rd down (3.6 yards), rank bottom 5 in tight window pct (15%, 28th in NFL)
Mathieu in the Slot - Lines up as a slot CB on the majority of snaps (40%), more often than at safety (34%) & box (24%)
Struggling in Coverage - Mathieu has forced a tight window on just 2 of 54 targets this season (3.7%, worst among DB)
> Mathieu is also allowing the 2nd-highest average target separation among DB this season (4.0 yards), min. 30 targets
> 2019: Mathieu forced a tight window on 12 of 70 targets (17.1% tight window pct)
Mathieu Blitzing - Mathieu has generated 1 QB pressure since Week 1 (1 pressure on 25 blitzes over last 10 games)
> Week 12: Mathieu’s first QBP in 10 games was a timely one, as it led to an interception of Tom Brady (Bashaud Breeland)
> Pressure & Pressure Rate - 2017: 12 QBP (21.8%) | 2018: 4 QBP (12.9%) | 2019: 5 QBP (11.6%) | 2020: 2 QBP (6.9%)
Charvarius Ward Regression - 120.3 passer rating allowed this season (4 TD, 0 INT), 60.3 in 2019 (1 TD, 2 INT)
> 2020: 37 tgts, 22 rec (59.5% comp pct), 4 TD, 0 INT, 120.3 rating | 2019: 44.3% comp pct, 1 TD, 2 INT, 60.3 rating
