Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 14 SNF PREVIEW: STEELERS AT BILLS
Ben Roethlisberger by the Numbers
Big Ben Fast Time to Throw - Averages the fastest time to throw of any qualified QB this season (2.29 seconds)
> Would be the fastest average time to throw of any qualified QB by 0.09 seconds in a season in the NGS era (since 2016)
> Roethlisberger’s average time to throw this season (2.29 sec) is 0.28 seconds faster on average than ‘16-19 (2.57 sec)
> Quick pass (< 2.5 sec) on 68% of pass attempts, highest in NFL (~4% more than next closest QB in NGS era)
Success on Quick Throws - Roethlisberger has been effective on quick throws, struggled when time to throw > 2.5s
> Quick (< 2.5 sec): 237/331 (71.6% comp pct), 2,068 yards, 20 TD, 3 INT, +58.4 Total EPA, +0.18 EPA/dropback
> Long (2.5+ sec): 87/153 (56.9% comp pct), 1,037 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT, -3.8 Total EPA, -0.02 EPA/dropback
> When Roethlisberger does hold for 2.5+ seconds, he’s pressured on 44.2% of dropbacks (10th-highest among QB)
Low Pressure Rate Against - Roethlisberger has been pressured at the 4th-lowest rate (18.4%) this season
> Roethlisberger Under Pressure (2020): 59.3% comp pct (3rd), 8.1 YPA (3rd), 96.6 passer rating (3rd), +8.4% CPOE (1st)
> Roethlisberger (+8.9) is 1 of 2 QBs to have a positive EPA under pressure this season (P. Rivers: +4.7)
Empty Efficiency - Roethlisberger has thrown 12 TDs in empty formations this season, almost 2x the next closest QB
> Roethlisberger in Empty: 100/134, 871 yds (3rd), 12 TD (1st), 2 INT, 115.0 passer rating (3rd), +31.9 Total EPA (2nd)
> Most TD passes in Empty (2020): Roethlisberger (12), T. Brady (7), J. Burrow (6), M. Stafford (5), D. Watson (5)
Less Air Yards per Attempt - Roethlisberger averages 7.0 air yards per attempt this season (5-year low)
> Air Yards/Attempt (QB Ranks) - 2016: 9.4 (9th) | 2017: 9.2 (6th) | 2018: 7.7 (20th) | 2019: 8.9 (DNQ) | 2020: 7.0 (27th)
Short of Sticks on 3rd Down - Roethlisberger averages +0.4 air yards to the sticks on 3rd down (8th-lowest among QB)
> Roethlisberger has been less aggressive on 3rd down - 2016: +4.6 | 2017: +2.5 | 2018: +0.6 | 2019: +2.6 | 2020: +0.4
Deep Efficiency Decline - Roethlisberger has not been as efficient on deep passes this season as he was pre-injury
> Big Ben (Deep) - 2020 (13/55): 23.6% comp pct (31st), -4.9% CPOE | 2016-19 (78/256): 30.5% comp pct, -1.8% CPOE
> 2016-18: 30 TD on deep passes from 2016-2018, 2nd-most in that span behind Russell Wilson, 32)
No Play Action - The Steelers have ranked in the bottom two of play action usage for five consecutive seasons
> PIT PA Rate by Season - 2016: 12% (32nd) | 2017: 11% (32nd) | 2018: 12% (32nd) | 2019: 13% (31st) | 2020: 9% (32nd)
> Big Ben EPA/Dropback - Play Action: -0.20 (29th in NFL) | No Play Action: +0.14 (11th) | Difference: -0.34 (31st)
Unreliable Receivers - Roethlisberger has had 8.9% of his passes dropped this season, the highest rate in the NFL
> Top 5 Drop % (2020): Roethlisberger (8.9%), A. Smith (8.0%), Jackson (7.6%), B. Mayfield (7.0%), D. Jones (5.5%)
> Week 13 vs WAS (last week): 8 drops (2 more than any other QB in a game this season), 15.7% drop rate
Ben to Blame for Drops - Targets receivers in congested areas where they are liable to hits (Short, Between the Numbers)
> Roethlisberger: 12.2% drop rate on short passes between the numbers (highest), 36% of all passes target this area (5th)
> 6 of Roethlisberger’s drops in the Steelers Week 13 loss vs Washington came in the short area between the numbers
> NFL Average drop rate in the short area between the numbers is 5.7%, compared to 4.4% on all other passes
Big Ben Beats the Blitz - Roethlisberger is able to beat the blitz with his quick passing, +46.2 Total EPA vs blitz (2nd)
> Roethlisberger vs Blitz (2020): +4.8% CPOE (3rd in NFL), +0.35 EPA/dropback (3rd), 119.6 passer rating (4th)
> Roethlisberger is more aggressive throwing down field vs the blitz: 8.3 air yards/att, +1.7 increase (8th-largest)
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Empty Formations - The Steelers have used empty formations on 18% of their plays this season (highest rate in NFL)
> Highest Empty Formation Rate (2020): Steelers (18%), Bengals (18%), Rams (17%), Texans (16%), Ravens (13%)
WR Explosiveness vs Press - PIT has 3 WRs in top 15 of avg top speed within 1 second on go routes vs press
> PIT WRs: James Washington 8.85 MPH (4th), Dionte Johnson 8.71 MPH (9th), JuJu Smith-Schuster 8.66 MPH (11th)
> Among 71 wide receivers to run at least 15 go routes vs press, three PIT WRs rank in top 11 (WR Avg - 7.79 MPH)
JuJu Working Short Area - Smith-Schuster runs the 2nd-shortest routes among WR this season (min. 200 routes)
> Lowest Avg Route Depth among WR: Kupp (8.3), Smith-Schuster (8.3), Fitzgerald (8.4), Shepherd (8.7), Renfrow (8.7)
> Lowest WR Air Yards/Target (min. 40 targets): L. Fitzgerald (5.5), Smith-Schuster (5.6), L. Shenault (5.7), G. Ward (5.8)
> JuJu has aligned more in the slot (% of plays) over 4-year career - 2017: 49% | 2018: 55% | 2019: 58% | 2020: 73%
Diontae Johnson on Crossers - Targeted on 33.0% of crossing routes since 2019, 4th-highest among WR (min. 60 routes)
> Top 5 (since 2019): D. Samuel (38.5%), C. Davis (38.4%), DJ Chark (35.1%), D. Johnson (33.0%), R. Woods (32.7%)
Chase Claypool on Go Routes - Claypool has 3 TD receptions on Go Routes this season (T-6th in NFL)
> Claypool: Targeted on 16.5% of go routes (17 targets on 103 routes), 12th-highest rate in NFL (min. 60 go routes)
> D. Johnson: Targeted on 20.2% of go routes (20 targets on 99 routes), 4th-highest rate in NFL (min. 60 go routes)
Bills Pass Rush - The Bills have generated pressure on 29.3% of dropbacks this season (3rd-highest in NFL)
> BUF: 29.3% pressure rate (3rd), 32.7% pressure rate on blitzes (9th), 27.3% pressure rate on non-blitzes (5th)
Front Four - The Bills are 1 of 3 teams to have 3 players with 25+ pressures (Steelers: 4 players, Bears: 3 players)
> EDGE Rushes (min. 160 pass rushes): Jerry Hughes: 40 QBP (14.6%, 4th), Mario Addison: 31 QBP (11.7%, 14th)
> Ed Oliver has 28 pressures on 259 pass rushes: 10.8% pressure rate (7th among 71 interior DL with 160+ pass rushes)
Max Blitzes - The Bills have brought max blitzes (6+ pass rushers) on 14% of dropbacks this season (3rd in NFL)
> Top 5 in Max Blitz % (6+ Pass Rushers): Chiefs (19%), Cardinals (16%), Bills (14%), Buccaneers (14%), Steelers (14%)
> Vs Max Blitz (2020) - Roethlisberger: 23/34, 207 yards, 6 TD (3rd) | Allen: 32/48, 323 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Tre’Davious White’s Impact - Since 2018, the Bills allow a 101.5 passer rating w/o White, 83.1 passer rating w/White
> White ON: 83.1 passer rating, -2.7% CPOE, 7.2% sack rate | White OFF: 101.5 passer rating, +6.0% CPOE, 3.6% sack rate
White Target Deterrent - White has been targeted on just 13.1% of his coverage snaps (3rd-lowest among 64 outside CB)
> Lowest Target % (outside CB, min. 200 cov snaps): J. McCourty (11.7%), B. Roby (12.5%), White (13.1%), C. Ward (13.3%)
White as Nearest Defender - Not as effective this season when targeted this season (2019: 58% success | 2020: 48%)
> 2019: 84 targets, 42 rec allowed (50.0%, -8.4% CPOE allowed), 0 TD, 6 INT, 38.9 passer rating, -23.5 Targeted EPA
> 2020: 48 targets, 29 rec allowed (60.4%, +0.8% CPOE allowed), 3 TD, 3 INT, 81.6 passer rating, +4.5 Targeted EPA
> Opponents have targeted White significantly less this season (13.1% target rate) than in 2019 (17.3% target rate)
Josh Allen’s Improvement in Year 3
Allen’s Passing Efficiency - Only qualified QB to rank in the top 5 in Comp Pct Over Expected, EPA/droback & success %
> Ranks among QB: +4.1% Comp Pct Over Expected (3rd), +0.20 EPA/dropback (5th), 53.9% pass success rate (1st)
> Allen CPOE by Season - 2018: -7.7% (33rd) | 2019: -3.7% (30th) | 2020: +4.1% (3rd)
> Allen EPA/Dropback by Season - 2018: -0.20 (31st) | 2019: -0.07 (24th) | 2020: +0.20 (5th)
> Allen Success Rate (EPA+) by Season - 2018: 35.9% (32nd) | 2019: 39.8% (30th) | 2020: 53.9% (1st)
Deep Passing Improvement - More than doubled his comp pct on deep passes this season (2019: 23.1% | 2020: 48.8%)
> 2018-19 (Deep 20+): 28/121 (23.1% comp pct, -9.6% CPOE) | 2020 (Deep 20+): 20/41 (48.8% comp pct, +13.8% CPOE)
> Allen’s 23.1% comp pct over his first two seasons (2018-19) ranked last among qualified QBs over that span
Throwing On the Run - Allen is tied for 4th in the NFL in passing TD “on the run” (8+ MPH) this season (6)
> Most TD On the Run: Patrick Mahomes (10), Russell Wilson (8), Aaron Rodgers (7), Josh Allen (6), Kyler Murray (6)
> 2018-19 (8+ MPH): 50/148 (33.8%), -10.7% CPOE, -0.41 EPA/DB | 2020: 48/83 (57.8%), +7.1% CPOE, +0.08 EPA/DB
Allen on Extended Plays - Allen holds for 4+ seconds on 17.1% of dropbacks (3rd-highest rate among qualified QB)
> Allen has been sacked on 18.9% of extended dropbacks this season (5th-lowest), 30.0% of extended dropbacks in 2019
> Allen has the highest pressures evaded rate (27.1%) in the NFL this season (16.5% in 2019, 5th in NFL)
Improved vs Blitz - Allen has been less aggressive throwing downfield vs the blitz this season and more efficient
> 2019 (vs Blitz): 10.4 air yards/att, 50.9% comp pct, 5.7 YPA, 10 TD, 5 INT, 75.7 passer rating, -0.21 EPA/dropback
> 2020 (vs Blitz): 8.5 air yards/att, 62.2% comp pct, 7.3 YPA, 9 TD, 2 INT, 99.6 passer rating, +0.18 EPA/dropback
> Since entering the NFL in 2018, Allen has been blitzed on 35% of dropbacks in his career, 4th-highest among qualified QB
Allen Without John Brown - Throws deep almost half as often without Brown, higher comp pct & more separation
> Allen Deep w/Brown ON: 12.0% deep pct, 13/28 (46.4% comp pct) | OFF: 6.7% deep pct, 7/13 (53.8% comp pct)
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
10 Personnel - The Bills use 10 personnel on 17% of plays, 2nd-highest rate in NFL (ARI, 23%), only 2 teams over 7%
> Top 5 in 10 Personnel Usage Rate (2020): Cardinals (23%), Bills (17%), Buccaneers (7%), Bengals (5%), Texans (3%)
Wide Formations - The Bills have employed the 5th-most spaced out formations this season (27.8 yards average width)
> Top 5 (2020): Dolphins (29.1 yards), Cowboys (28.3 yards), Eagles (28.3 yards), Cardinals (27.8 yards), Bills (27.8 yards)
Two-Back Formations - The Bills use two-back formation on 23% of plays this season, 4th-highest in NFL
Stefon Diggs Tight Window Success - Since 2016, 1 of 3 WRs with a 100+ passer rating when targeted in tight windows
> Passer Rating on Targets in Tight Windows (since 2016, min. 50 tgts): Lockett (105.2), Metcalf (101.5), Diggs (100.2)
> Since 2016: Diggs ranks 1st in Catch Rate Over Expected on tight window targets (+16.6%) out of 73 WRs (min. 50 tgts)
> Diggs is the only WR with a positive Catch Rate Over Expected on tight window targets in all five seasons (min. 10 tgts)
Diggs on Hitches - Leads the NFL in routes, targets, receptions and yards when targeted on hitch routes this season
> Hitch Routes: 124 routes (1st), 40 targets (1st), 34 rec (1st), 339 yards (1st) | +20.0% CROE (1st in NFL, min. 20 tgts)
> Diggs on 1st Down - Hitch (30%) or Go (25%) on over 50% of 1st down routes | 32.8% target rate on hitches, 7.8% on go’s
Singletary vs Light Boxes - Faces 6-or-fewer defenders in the box on 60.2% of runs (6th-highest among RB, min. 50 att)
> 2020: 4.7 YPC vs light boxes (13.0% stuff rate), 3.5 YPC vs 7+ in box (31.4% stuff rate, 4th-worst among RB, min. 20 att)
> PIT Defense - Employs light boxes on 67% of all plays (5th-highest in NFL)
Blitzburgh - The Steelers have blitzed at a top 5 rate for the third consecutive season (40% blitz rate in 2020, 4th in NFL)
> Steelers Blitz Rate by Season - 2018: 39% (2nd) | 2019: 36% (5th) | 2020: 40% (4th)
> PIT leads the NFL in pressure rate on blitzes (48.3%, only team over 40%) and pressure rate non-blitzes (33.8%)
Blitzburgh by Down - The Steelers reduce their blitz rate as a series progresses, contrary to league average
> NFL Average Blitz Rate by Down (2020) - 1st Down: 27% | 2nd Down: 29% | 3rd Down: 35%
> Steelers Blitz Rate by Down (2020) - 1st Down: 48% (1st) | 2nd Down: 42% (2nd) | 3rd Down: 30% (21st)
> The Steelers (45%) are the only team since 2016 with an early down blitz rate over 44% (2018: 42%, 1st | 2019: 43%, 3rd)
> The Steelers have a lower blitz rate on 3rd down in each of the last 3 seasons: 2018: 32% (15th) | 2019: 20% (30th)
Off-Coverage - The Steelers align in off coverage vs detached receivers at the 4th-highest rate (65%) this season
> The Steelers are 1 of 5 teams to align in press coverage more often vs slot receivers than wide receivers
Steelers Pass Rush - The Steelers lead the NFL in pressure rate by over 7 percentage points this season (39.6%)
> Top 5 Pressure Rates (2020): Steelers (39.6%), Saints (32.2%), Bills (29.3%), Eagles (29.0%), Browns (28.7%)
> The Steelers pressure rate (39.6%) this season would be the highest rate over the last 5 seasons (Denver, 2016: 38.2%)
Early Pressure - The Steelers are the only defense in the NFL to generate a pressure rate above 32% on 1st & 2nd down
> Steelers Pressure Rate by Down (2020): 1st Down: 37.7% (1st) | 2nd Down: 35.6% (1st) | 3rd Down: 46.0% (1st)
T.J. Watt DPOY - Watt leads the NFL in QB pressures this season (64), three Steelers in top 5 (includes injured Dupree)
> Most Pressures (2020): T.J. Watt (64), Aaron Donald (51), Shaq Barrett (47), Stephon Tuitt (44), Bud Dupree (41)
> Watt’s 17.9% pressure rate is the 2nd-highest of any player with 200+ pass rushes in a season in the NGS era (since ‘16)
> Watt has generated at least 3 pressures in every game this season (13 game streak back to 2019, longest in NGS Era)
(+) Bud Dupree Injury - The Steelers have almost half the pressure rate without Dupree on the field this season
> On-Field (359 dropbacks): 11.1% sack rate, 44.0% QBP rate | Off-Field (93 dropbacks): 4.3% sack rate, 22.6% QBP rate
> Dupree has forced 9 turnovers from pressure since 2019 (2nd-most in NFL, Shaq Barrett: 12), 3 TO-QBP in 2020 (T-5th)
Alex Highsmith (Dupree’s Replacement) - Highsmith played 50 snaps at right EDGE in Wk 13 (Dupree: 83% right edge)
> Highsmith: 11 pressures on 81 pass rushes (11.6% pressure rate) this season
Burst off the LOS - The Steelers pass rushers are successful in part because of their burst at the snap of the ball
> EDGE Pass Rush Get Off (min. 125 pass rushes at EDGE) - Watt (0.70 seconds, 1st), Dupree (0.72 seconds, 4th)
> Interior DL Pass Rush Get Off (min. 125 pass rushes at iDL) - Tuitt (0.91 seconds, 4th), Heyward (0.97 seconds, 22nd)
Watt Improved Get-Off - Leads all EDGE in average pass rush get-off (0.70 seconds), faster than in 2018-19 (0.79s)
> Fastest EDGE Get-Off (min. 125 pass rushes): Watt (0.70s), C. Lawson (0.72s), Y. Ngakoue (0.72s), B. Dupree (0.72s)
> Watt Avg Get-Off by Season - 2018: 0.79 seconds | 2019: 0.78 seconds | 2020: 0.70 seconds (fastest among EDGE)
Vince Williams vs Run - Since 2019, PIT defense allows 3.3 YPC with Williams on-field, 5.0 YPC without Williams
> Williams ON (462 runs since 2019): 3.3 YPC, 41% success rate | Williams OFF (283 runs): 5.0 YPC, 53% success rate
