Matchweek 10 Previews

Matchup #1 - Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Analysis: Despite Brighton having relative success against Liverpool recently - four points last season, only one multi-goal loss in the last five - this Liverpool team is a different story. Simply put, I don’t see how this Brighton defense contains the Liverpool attack. The Reds have generated two or more expected goals in all but one EPL fixture this season and have surpassed the 2.5 xGF mark in seven matches. That offense gets a Brighton defense that has been very lucky in front of their own goal. Through nine matches, they’ve conceded nine times, but on 13 xGA. Furthermore, Brighton have only managed 0.9 and 0.6 xGF in their last two road matches. Back Liverpool to dominate at home and hold Brighton at bay. 

Prediction: Liverpool 3, Brighton 0

Matchup #2 - Tottenham vs. Manchester United

Analysis: Given how poor both of these teams are defensively, I expect you’ll witness a match where both teams get on the scoresheet. United have allowed at least one expected goal in eight straight matches (in all competitions) while Spurs have conceded at least once in six straight EPL fixtures. From a side perspective, though, I give the slightest of edges to United. They’re unbeaten in the last three at Tottenham and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is (likely) managing for his job. That motivation - and the fact United are 10 spots better than Spurs in the xG table - should see them claim all three points. 

Prediction: United 2, Tottenham 1

Match #3 - Norwich City vs. Leeds United

Analysis: Even though last week’s 7-0 defeat against Chelsea was a bit harsh on paper, this Norwich defense is BAD. They’ve never conceded fewer than one expected goal all season and - other than last week’s drubbing - have deserved every concession. Through nine fixtures, Norwich have conceded 18 times on 23 xGA. Leeds, despite their struggles, have actually been somewhat consistent offensively. They’ve managed at least one expected goal in six of their last seven and more than 1.5 xGF in three of their last five. With Kalvin Phillips, Júnior Firpo and Raphinha all likely Starting XI inclusions, back the visitors to claim three points. 

Prediction: Leeds 2, Norwich 1

Match #4 - Aston Villa vs. West Ham

Analysis: On paper, the Hammers have a massive advantage offensively. They are at least nine spots better than hosts Villa in all of the following categories: non-penalty expected goals for, expected goals for, shot-creating actions and attacking third touches. That could spell trouble for a Villa side that has the second-fewest expected goal total at home this season. That said, Villa have knocked one past West Ham in three straight meetings, so I expect they’ll at least get on the scoreboard. However, David Moyes’ squad is simply too good at the moment. Back them to win again on the road Sunday. 

Prediction: West Ham 2, Villa 1

Match #5 - Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Everton

Analysis: Even though this fixture has historically seen goals - three or more in four of the last five - Monday should be a different story. Both sides rank in the top-half of the expected goals against table. Plus, Everton have conceded the fourth-fewest xGA on the road this EPL season. From a side perspective, though, this match is slightly more difficult to call. On the one hand, I lean to Wolves given all of Everton’s injury concerns, including striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin. However, Everton have been a better road side than Wolves have been at home, a trend I don’t want to discount. Not to mention the fact Wolves have lost the goal-creating action battle in three of four home matches. With that in mind, be bold and go for a scoreless affair at Molineux. 

Prediction: Wolves 0, Everton 0