Matchweek 8 Previews

Matchup #1 - Leicester City vs. Manchester United

Analysis: The question here is with Leicester City as United have proven to be an established road commodity. Across their last 29 road matches, the Red Devils are unbeaten (19W-10D) and have never conceded more than once. That said, in their last four visits to the King Power Stadium, United have conceded at least one expected goal in every match. However, Matchday Six was the first home fixture for the Foxes in which they surpassed one expected goal this season. The match is a true toss-up, but I give the slightest of edges to United to grab all three points while also backing Leicester to get on the board at home. 

Prediction: Manchester United 2, Leicester City 1

Matchup #2 - Brentford vs. Chelsea

Analysis: Oddly, Brentford have comparatively been a far superior side away from home, posting a -0.4 xGD at home vs. +2.5 xGD on the road. Chelsea, meanwhile, are in the exact same boat. The Blues are unbeaten away from Stamford Bridge and have the third-best expected goal differential. Combine that with the fact that in their two road victories, Chelsea have held their opponents under one expected goal, and I believe Brentford will struggle Saturday. Even though they put up three goals against Liverpool in their last home match, the Chelsea defense is a much stronger unit. For that reason, I’ll back a Chelsea victory in which the Bees fail to break through. 

Prediction: Chelsea 2, Brentford 0

Match #3 - Everton vs. West Ham

Analysis: This is a tough match to call as there are factors going in favor of both sides. On the one hand, Everton have a flawless home record through three matches. The problem is those victories have come against Southampton, Burnley and Norwich. Additionally, the Toffees will be without their two main scoring options - Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison - in this fixture. For me, that tilts the advantage to West Ham, but I simultaneously don’t want to discount Everton’s success at home. Given Everton will adapt and play a more defensive style and try to catch West Ham on the counter, I’ll call for the points to be shared at Goodison Park. 

Prediction: West Ham 1, Everton 1

Match #4 - Newcastle vs. Tottenham

Analysis: For me, the range of score possibilities in this match is the widest of the five selected matches. Newcastle have demonstrated they’re not capable of limiting chances as they’ve allowed the second-most expected goals at home this season. The potential issue? Tottenham have the fourth-worst xG output on the road this season. However, the last two meetings at St. James’ Park have seen goals - a 2-2 draw last April and a 3-1 Tottenham win in July 2020. Newcastle should be capable of a goal or two as they’ve surpassed 1.0 xGF in all three of their home matches. However, I think their defense is exactly what Tottenham needs to see right now, so I’ll call for a Spurs victory Sunday. 

Prediction: Tottenham 3, Newcastle 2

Match #5 - Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace

Analysis: Perhaps this could be nothing, but it is worth noting Arsenal have won seven straight matches played on Mondays. But while the Gunners are unbeaten in their last four against Palace, three of those results have been draws. Either way, I think this is a low-scoring contest as both sides rank in the bottom-half of the xG table. However, Arsenal seem to have found their groove at home by winning two straight matches. Further, Arsenal will likely want to show opposing manager (and former Arsenal player) Patrick Viera their best stuff. Given those factors, I’ll say the hosts win all three points Monday. 

Prediction: Arsenal 1, Crystal Palace 0