Matchweek 6 Previews

Matchup #1 - Leicester City vs. Burnley

Analysis: I genuinely believe there’s upset potential in this match, as Leicester have been anything but solid out of the gate. The Foxes have lost four of five on expected goals - including both home matches - and are last in the Premier League in terms of shot-creating actions. Burnley, meanwhile, have allowed fewer expected goals against and have a better xGD than Leicester through their first five matches. Plus, the Clarets were up to the task against Leicester last season, winning both matches on expected goals. Be bold here and take Sean Dyche’s squad to grab their first ever top-flight win at the King Power Stadium. 

Prediction: Burnley 2, Leicester City 1

Matchup #2 - Brentford vs. Liverpool

Analysis: The big question for me in this match is whether Brentford get on the scoreboard. Liverpool, on the other hand, feel like a safe bet for multiple goals. Jurgen Klopp’s side have yet to be held under 2.0 xGF through their first five matches and have won their two road fixtures by a 6-0 margin. That said, they’ve shown some openings on the defensive end in those matches, allowing a combined 2.6 xGA against Norwich and Leeds. Combine that with the fact Brentford have shown some offensive potential - at least one expected goal in three of five matches - and I believe the Bees should be able to register at least one goal in front of their supporters. However, Liverpool should be able to coast to victory. 

Prediction: Liverpool 3, Brentford 1

Match #3 - Southampton vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Analysis: To say that Wolves have been incredibly unlucky offensively would be a massive understatement. Coming into their visit to Southampton, the visitors have scored twice on nearly nine expected goals. Southampton’s offense, on the other hand, have been spectacularly mediocre. They’ve failed to surpass one expected goal in four of their first five and only cleared that number against Newcastle, the side ranked last in xGA. Wolves *should* win this match, especially considering they’ve won two of the last three against the Saints. The only question is whether their offensive woes continue, but I don’t foresee that happening against an inferior Southampton defense. 

Prediction: Wolves 2, Southampton 1

Match #4 - Arsenal vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Analysis: Arsenal have scored in 22 consecutive North London Derbies played on their home ground, so they’re a safe bet to score. Tottenham, despite their terrible offensive play in their first five matches, have scored in seven consecutive matches against Arsenal. For that reason, I like both teams to at least get on the scoreboard once. Take it a step further and you’ll find Arsenal have won three consecutive home matches against Spurs on xG. In those matches, they’re 2-1-0. A win would undoubtedly boost the confidence of this Arsenal squad, especially in what many consider their most important match of the season. Considering the home team has won three straight in this fixture, I’ll go with the Gunners to grab three points. 

Prediction: Arsenal 2, Tottenham 1

Match #5 - Crystal Palace vs. Brighton & Hove Albion 

Analysis: A number of opposing trends are at play in this match, making this the toughest call of the week for me. Palace are unbeaten in the last four against the Seagulls, but Brighton won both meetings last season on expected goals. Plus, a win for Brighton would be their third consecutive road win of the season, a feat they’ve never accomplished before in the top-flight. For as defensive as these sides are, goals have been somewhat regular over the past few meetings. Both teams have scored in four of the last five and at least one side has surpassed 2.0 xGF in three of the last four meetings. Combine all those trends together, and I think we’re heading toward a share of the points at Selhurst Park. 

Prediction: Brighton 1, Crystal Palace 1