NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 1 PREVIEW (NBC): EAGLES AT FALCONS

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Best of Eagles Notes

Carson Wentz

- Wentz threw shorter passes to more open receivers in last 2 seasons (compared to first 2 seasons)

> 2018-19 (12 Games): 69.8% comp pct, 7.8 air yds/attempt, 16% tight window pct, 3.5 average receiver separation

> 2016-17 (29 Games): 61.5% comp pct, 8.8 air yds/attempt, 23% tight window pct, 2.9 average receiver separation

- Most effective QB under pressure since the start of last season (103.3 passer rating, best among QBs)

> Matt Ryan: 3rd-best passer rating under pressure since 2018 (90.6) behind Wentz (103.3) and Mariota (92.8)

- Wentz was more effective on deep pass attempts (20+ air yards) in Week 1 at WAS (struggled in 2018)

> Week 1 at WAS: 2/5, 104 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (127.1 passer rating) ~ Both Week 1 TDs targeted to DeSean Jackson

> 2018: 14/41, 550 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT (59.3 passer rating)

- Throws behind the LOS on 26% of 1st down attempts since 2018, 2nd-highest among QBs (Mariota, 27%)

Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson & Zach Ertz

- Alshon Jeffery: 6 of 7 receiving TD have come from 12 personnel since 2018 (35% of plays in 12 PP)

- DeSean Jackson: 6 receiving TD on targets traveling 30+ air yards since 2018 (most in NFL)

> Averaging 18.6 air yards per target since 2018 (deepest average target in NFL, min. 75 targets)

- Zach Ertz (2018): Led all TEs in “detached” receptions (85), 3rd in separation (3.2) & catch pct (72.0%)

> ATL Defense vs Wide or Slot Alignment: 25 Pass TD allowed, 2nd-worst in NFL

Eagles Offense

- Since the start of last season, the Eagles use 2+ TE on 43% of offensive plays, highest rate in NFL

Eagles Defense

- Fletcher Cox: Eagles generate pressure +11.2% more often when Cox is on-field (32.1% ON, 20.9% OFF)

Best of Falcons Notes

Matt Ryan

- Over the last four seasons (since 2016), no QB attempts a higher rate of passes from under center

> Since 2016: 37% of Matt Ryan’s attempts have come from under center, highest rate among QBs (min. 500 att)

- Completes +5.1% of attempts above expectation vs. 4-or-fewer rushers since 2016, best among QBs

> 107.1 passer rating vs. non-blitz situations since 2016, trails only Patrick Mahomes (112.0) for best among QBs

> PHI Defense: 5th-lowest blitz rate (19%) since the start of last season (2nd-highest non-blitz pressure rate, 29%)

- Since the start of 2018, Ryan targets “wide” alignment on 48% of attempts, 2nd-highest among QBs

> No QB throws less often to backfield alignment than Ryan since the start of last season (11%)

Julio Jones

- Jones accounted for 46% of the Falcons air yards last season, highest among any WR

> Week 1 at MIN: Accounted for 28% of the Falcons air yards (Calvin Ridley accounted for 22%)

- Targeted 33 times in the end zone since 2016 (9th-most in that span) yet has only 7 receptions

> 22.1% catch rate on end zone targets ranks last among 21 WRs with at least 25 end zone targets

- Over the last four seasons, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones M.O. is stretch the field vertically

> Since 2016 (Ranks among 32 QB-WR duos, min. 200 targets): 14.3 air yds/target (3rd), 28.6 distance/route (1st)

Falcons Offense

- Calvin Ridley: Opponents gave Ridley 6.4 yards of pre-snap cushion in 2018 (4th-most among WRs)

- Austin Hooper: Had 3+ yards of separation on 8 of 9 targets (89%) in Week 1 at MIN

> Averaged 4.6 yards of separation in Week 1, 2nd-highest among TEs (min. 5 targets)

- The Falcons averaged 6.1 YPP with 2+ TE groupings in 2018, 3rd-best in the NFL

Falcons Defense

- Week 1 at MIN: the Falcons used a base 4-3 defense on 69% of plays (2nd-highest rate in base DEF)

> 2018: Falcons used base defense (4-3 or 3-4) on just 20% of plays

Deion Jones: Falcons sack rate nearly twice as high with Jones On-Field (8.2% vs 4.8%)

> Opposing QB time to throw increases from 2.64 seconds (Jones off-field) to 2.86 seconds (Jones on-field)

Eagles Offense vs. Falcons Defense

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The Importance of Deion Jones to the Falcons Defense

Missing 10 games due to injury in 2018, Deion Jones’ absence turned out to be monumental for the Falcons pass defense. With Jones ON the field, the Falcons created pressure at a higher rate, allowed less yards per pass attempt, allowed fewer passing TDs per attempt, and a considerably lower passer rating. With Jones on the field for the Falcons, the team sacked opposing QBs nearly twice as often (8.2% vs 4.8%) than without him. Although not an elite pass rusher himself (Jones rushed the passer on only 10% of his snaps in 2018), Jones’ elite coverage ability forced opposing QBs to hold onto the ball for longer, allowing the Falcons pass rush to reach the QB more often and create more pressure.

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- Wentz was more effective on deep pass attempts (20+ air yards) in Week 1 at WAS (struggled in 2018)

> Week 1 at WAS: 2/5, 104 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (127.1 passer rating) ~ Both Week 1 TDs went to DeSean Jackson

> 2018: 14/41, 550 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT (59.3 passer rating)

- Throws behind the LOS on 26% of 1st down attempts since 2018, 2nd-highest among QBs (Mariota, 27%)

- In the 13 games Wentz has missed over the last two seasons, Nick Foles had similar QB tendencies

> Wentz (Career): 2.67 sec average time to throw, 8.5 air yds/attempt, 11.2% deep attempt, 89% inside tackle box

> Foles (13 games w/PHI): 2.71 sec average time to throw, 7.6 air yds/attempt, 11.0% deep attempt, 88% inside box

The Evolution of Carson Wentz since 2016 Rookie Season

Carson Wentz entered the league in 2016 with a gun-slinger mentality, taking chances by throwing downfield (8.8 air yards per attempt) and into tight windows (23% of attempts) in his first two NFL seasons. Since the start of last season, Wentz has favored higher probability passes by throwing shorter (7.8 air yards per attempt) to more open receivers (16% tight window pct). Wentz has seen his completion percentage increase from 61.5% in 2016-17 to 69.8% since the start of 2018.

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Falcons Offense vs. Eagles Defense

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The Key to the Eagles Defense: Fletcher Cox

Fletcher Cox is perhaps the important piece along the Eagles defensive front. Since the start of last season (including playoffs), when Cox was on the field on passing plays, the Eagles generated pressure on 32.3% of dropbacks (compared to 21.6% when Cox was off the field). The Eagles forced a sack and interception nearly twice as often when Cox was on the field (compared to off).

Since 2016, Fletcher Cox has caused 8 turnovers (forced fumbles or interceptions) from pressure, the 2nd-most among interior defensive linemen in that span (Aaron Donald has forced 13).