Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 4 SNF PREVIEW: EAGLES AT 49ERS
Jimmy Garoppolo and Nick Mullens
Garoppolo vs Mullens - Under HC Shanahan, both QBs have shown similar tendencies, Garoppolo favors quick passes
> Garoppolo (since 2017): 2.69 avg time to throw, 7.4 air yds/att, 29% play action (50% of passes under 2.5 seconds)
> Mullens (since 2018): 2.70 avg time to throw, 7.4 air yds/att, 28% play action (only 41% of passes under 2.5 seconds)
49ers QBs by Route Preference - Mullens tends to favor “in-breaking” routes, while Garoppolo “out-breaking” routes
> Mullens (since 2018): 50% in-breaking routes, 21% out-breaking routes | Top Routes: Crossers (17%), In (14%)
> Garoppolo (since 2018): 44% in-breaking routes, 28% out-breaking routes | Top Routes: Crossers (16%), Outs (15%)
Play Action Usage by QB (2020) - The 49ers have featured more play action dropbacks with Mullens than Garoppolo
> Play Action Pct of Dropbacks (2020) - Mullens: 43% on 51 dropbacks | Garoppolo: 25% on 53 dropbacks
Mullens on Play Action - Mullens has been very successful using play action in his career (13/19, 175 yds, TD in 2020)
> Play Action: 7 TD, 2 INT, 116.4 passer rating, 10.2 YPA | No Play Action: 7 TD, 9 INT, 82.3 passer rating, 7.7 YPA
> Mullen (career): +0.31 EPA/dropback using play action, just +0.04 EPA/dropback without play action
Mullens Under Pressure - Pressured on 33.3% of dropbacks this season, 5th-highest among qualified QB
> Week 2 at NYJ: Pressured on 38.5% of dropbacks | Week 3 at NYG: Pressured on 31.6% of dropbacks
> Mullens has been blitzed on 43% of dropbacks this season, 3rd-highest in NFL (Wk 2 at NYJ: 54% | Wk 3 at NYG: 40%)
Mullens by Air Yards - Mullens attacked more downfield in first start vs Giants (8.2 air yards/att) than vs Jets (4.0)
> Week 2 at NYJ: 1/2, 24 yards on passes of 10+ air yards, 7/9, 47 yards, INT on passes under 10 air yards (11 total att)
> Week 3 at NYG (10+ air yards): 8/12, 139 yards, 105.9 passer rating (+13.1% CPOE) | 7 of 8 comp between 10-19 AY
Kyle Shanahan’s Offense
Motion-Based Offense - The 49ers have led the NFL in shift/motion rate substantially in each of the past 3 seasons
> SF Shift/Motion Rate by Season - 2018: 69% (1st, TEN: 64%) | 2019: 76% (1st, BAL: 64%) | 2020: 74% (1st, BAL: 70%)
> The 49ers have seen double the increase in YPP (+1.2) using motion of any other team since 2018 (BAL: +0.5 YPP)
> The 49ers gain +2.2 in YPP when using motion on pass plays since 2019 (only team over +1.7 YPP)
Early Down Run Action - The 49ers have used run action (run or play action) on 75 of 85 1st down plays this season
> The 49ers have ranked 3rd in 1st down run action rate in each of the last 2 seasons (2019: 80%, 2020: 88%)
Personnel Groupings - The 49ers feature the highest rate of 21 personnel (42%), lowest rate of 11 personnel (35%)
> 49ers Offense (21 Personnel): 7.8 YPP, 2nd in NFL (min. 10 plays in ‘21’ PP)
Rushing in 21 Personnel - Significantly more effective rushing in 21 personnel (6.2 YPC) than all other groupings (2.7)
> 21 Personnel: 45 att, 278 yards, 6.2 YPC (44% success rate) | All Others: 44 att, 120 yards, 2.7 YPC (30% success rate)
Versatile WRs - Since 2019, the 49ers are the only team to align their WRs in the backfield and tight at top 5 rates
> Top 5 Teams by WR Tight Alignment: Rams (15.4%), Buccaneers (8.6%), Steelers (5.9%), 49ers (5.8%), Saints (5.7%)
> Top 5 Teams by WR Backfield Alignment: Bears (1.8%), 49ers (1.6%), Chiefs (1.4%), Ravens (1.4%), Panthers (1.1%)
> Deebo Samuel (2019): 2.2% of snaps in backfield, 5.6% of snaps tight | Brandon Aiyuk (2020): 8 of 95 snaps tight (8.4%)
WRs in Run Game - The 49ers get their speedy WRs in the open field and manufacture space in the run game
> The 49ers have averaged 10.2 expected rush yards per carry (4th-most) on 20 WR runs (5th-most) since 2019
> Aiyuk: 38 expected rush yards on 3 carries in 2020 | Samuel: 181 expected rush yards on 14 carries in 2020
> Aiyuk’s 19-yard rush TD in Week 3 had a 93.2% TD prob, the only run from outside the 15 yard line over 75% since 2018
Less Separation Downfield - Averaging 1.9 yards of separation on downfield targets (10+ air yards), 29th in NFL
> 2019: Averaged 2.6 yards of separation on downfield targets (10+ air yards) in 2019, 1st in NFL
49ers Injury-Riddled Defense
Arik Armstead - Higher percentage of snaps at EDGE in each of last 3 seasons (2018: 56% | 2019: 61% | 2020: 72%)
> Since 2018: More effective as a pass rusher from Interior DL (9.0% pressure rate) vs EDGE (5.8% pressure rate)
(+) Without Dee Ford - (Since 2019) The 49ers generate 31.7% pressure rate with Ford on-field, 24.4% without Ford
> Ford ON (183 pass plays): 31.7% QBP rate, 14.2% sack rate | Ford OFF (492 pass plays): 24.4% QBP rate, 5.5% sack rate
(+) Joey Bosa - Ranks 5th among EDGE rushers in pressure rate (13.1%) since entering the NFL in 2019
> Top 5 EDGE (min. 300 pass rushes): Garrett (16.9%), Quinn (13.9%), Z. Smith (13.6%), J. Allen (13.5%), N. Bosa (13.1%)
More Blitz Without Bosa - The 49ers have blitzed on 37% of pass plays without Bosa on-field this season (22% with)
Richard Sherman - Started the season strong allowing 2 receptions for 21 yards (on 3 targets) before Week 1 injury
> Target Rate by 49ers CB: Sherman (8.1%), Witherspoon (18.8%), Verrett (20.0%), K. Williams (20.0%), Moseley (23.9%)
Emmanuel Moseley - Targeted as the nearest defender on a team-high 23.9% of coverage snaps this season
> Emmanuel Moseley (as Nearest Defender): 17 targets, 11 rec allowed, 101 yards on 71 coverage snaps
Carson Wentz’s Struggles
Wentz Below Expectation - Wentz has just a 59.8% comp pct this season (29th), despite a 66.3% exp comp pct (13th)
> Wentz: -6.4% comp pct over expected in 2020 (31st among 33 qualified QB) | -40.4 Total EPA on dropbacks (lowest)
Wentz Downfield - Wentz has struggled especially on passes traveling 10+ air yards this season, 4 INT (T-most in NFL)
> 10+ Air Yards (2020): 3 TD, 4 INT, 31.7 comp pct (32nd), 7.1 YPA (31st), 42.9 passer rating (33rd), -18.1% CPOE (32nd)
> 10+ Air Yards (2016-19): 52 TD, 24 INT, 47.9 comp pct, 9.7 YPA, 92.7 passer rating, +1.6 % CPOE
Wentz Without Pressure - Wentz is 1 of 4 QBs to average negative EPA per dropback (-0.06) without pressure in 2020
> Without Pressure: 3 TD, 5 INT (most in NFL), 64.8 comp pct (31st), 6.1 YPA (32nd), 71.3 passer rating (33rd)
Wentz Out of Pocket - Wentz has more sacks (6) than completions (5) outside the tackle box this season
Jalen Hurts - The rookie QB has played 3 snaps in each of the past 2 weeks, and all have been with Wentz on the field
> Hurts Alignment Snaps: 1 backfield, 1 wide, 1 slot, 3 at QB | 5 of the 6 plays with Hurts on the field were run plays
Eagles in 12 Personnel Without Dallas Goedert
12 Personnel Base - The Eagles have used 12 personnel at almost twice the rate (55%) of any other team this season
> Dallas Goedert only played 6 snaps in Week 1 before leaving with an foot injury (placed on IR on 9/29)
> PHI Offense: used 12 personnel on 68% of snaps in Weeks 1-2, dropped to 34% in Week 3 without Goedert (still led NFL)
> TE Richard Rodgers played on 31 of 86 snaps in Week 3 (36%), played just 2 snaps in Weeks 1-2 (1%)
Eagles Four Man Pass Rush
Front Four - The Eagles have had a top 5 pressure rate on non-blitzes in every season under DC Jim Schwartz
> QBP % (Non-Blitzes) - 2016: 29.5% (4th) | 2017: 30.1% (5th) | 2018: 28.3% (2nd) | 2019: 30.4% (2nd) | 2020: 32.0% (2nd)
Blitzing More - The Eagles are blitzing at an above average rate for the first time this season in Schwartz’s tenure
> Blitz Rate (by Season) - 2016: 23.9% (27th) | 2017: 26% (20th) | 2018: 21% (28th) | 2019: 27% (19th) | 2020: 34% (12th)
> Eagles Pressure Rate (2020): 33.3% on blitzes (12th), 32.0% on non-blitzes (2nd) | 32.5% on all dropbacks (2nd)
> Jalen Mills: 15 pass rushes this season (T-6th most among DB), 5 pressures (T-2nd most among DB), 33.3% QBP %
Derek Barnett - Barnett has generated a 15.0% pressure rate this season (10th in NFL, min. 40 pass rushes)
> The Eagles have 14 different players with a pressure this season (T-2nd most in NFL)
