Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 6 SNF PREVIEW: RAMS AT 49ERS
Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan
Under Center - The Rams (58%) and 49ers (52%) have aligned under center more than any other team since 2017
> Rams Under Center (since 2017): 6.0 YPP (1st), 8.6 yards per pass play (4th), 4.6 yards per run play (1st)
> 49ers Under Center (since 2017): 5.7 YPP (3rd), 7.3 yards per pass play (9th), 4.4 yards per run play (8th)
Personnel Groupings - The Rams and 49ers are on opposite ends of the spectrum in their personnel grouping usage
> The Rams have used 11 personnel on 80% of plays since 2017 (only team over 73%), the 49ers on 42% of plays (32nd)
> The 49ers have used 21 personnel on 34% of plays since 2017 (only team over 21%) | LA: 0 plays in 21 personnel (32nd)
> (Since 2017): The Rams gain 6.4 YPP in 11 personnel (4th), the 49ers gain 6.5 YPP in 21 personnel (5th)
> The Rams have used the fewest unique personnel groupings (8) since 2017, while the 49ers have the 3rd-fewest (14)
Motion-Based Offense - The 49ers have led the NFL in shift/motion rate substantially in each of the past 3 seasons
> SF Shift/Motion Rate by Season - 2018: 69% (1st, TEN: 64%) | 2019: 76% (1st, BAL: 64%) | 2020: 71% (1st, BAL: 70%)
> The 49ers have seen double the increase in YPP (+1.2) using motion of any other team since 2018 (BAL: +0.5 YPP)
> The Rams (+1.2) and 49ers (+1.2) see the largest increase in YPP on pass plays using shift/motion since 2018
Early Down Run Action - The Rams have used run action (run or play action) on 91% of 1st downs this season (1st)
Rams in 11 Personnel - Significantly more effective rushing in 11 personnel (4.6 YPC) than all other groupings (3.3)
> 11 Personnel: 102 att, 474 yards, 4.6 YPC (66% success rate) | All Others: 67 att, 224 yards, 3.3 YPC (46% success rate)
49ers in 21 Personnel - Significantly more effective rushing in 21 personnel (5.9 YPC) than all other groupings (4.2)
> 21 Personnel: 64 att, 379 yards, 5.9 YPC (52% success rate) | All Others: 64 att, 266 yards, 4.2 YPC (36% success rate)
Versatile WRs - Since 2019, the 49ers are the only team to align their WRs in the backfield and tight at top 5 rates
> Top 5 Teams by WR Tight Alignment: Rams (15.5%), Buccaneers (7.8%), Steelers (6.1%), 49ers (5.7%), Saints (5.6%)
> Top 5 Teams by WR Backfield Alignment: Bears (2.1%), 49ers (1.5%), Chiefs (1.5%), Ravens (1.4%), Panthers (1.4%)
> Deebo Samuel (2019): 2.2% of snaps in backfield, 5.6% of snaps tight | (2020): 1.3% of snaps in backfield, 9.0% tight
WRs in Run Game - The Rams have run 76 WR designed runs since 2018 (no other team has over 50), 4 TD (T-1st)
> The 49ers have integrated more WR designed runs since drafting Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk to get them in space
> 49ers on WR designed runs (since 2019): 18 carries (5th), 4 TD (double any other team), 11.2 expected YPC (3rd)
> WR Designed Runs include end arounds, reverses, fly/jet sweeps, and laterals to players not aligned in the backfield
Crossing Routes - Goff (18%, 1st) and Garoppolo (16%, 3rd) have targeted crossing routes at a top 3 rate since 2018
> Goff has thrown almost 600 more yards (2,221) on crossing routes than any other QB since 2018, 16 TD passes (1st)
> Crossing Targets (since 2018) - Goff: 9.1 YPA, 114.2 passer rating | Garoppolo: 9.6 YPA, 114.4 passer rating
Bunch Alignment - The Rams have a 11% bunch formation rate this season (11th, McVay’s first season outside top 2)
> McVay Bunch % - 2016 (WAS): 15% (2nd) | 2017 (LA): 24% (1st) | 2018 (LA): 17% (2nd) | 2019 (LA): 16% (2nd)
> The Rams have increased their YPP by +2.6 in bunch formations this season (2nd-largest in NFL) | Bunch YPP: 8.3 (3rd)
Tight Aligned WRs - The Rams have aligned their WRs tight on 162 snaps in 2020 (almost 100 more than next team)
> Rams WR aligned Tight % - 2018 (15%), 2019 (15%), 2020 (19%) | No other team is above 10% in a season since 2016
> Top 4 WR by Tight Snaps 2020: Cooper Kupp (100), Robert Woods (53), Curtis Samuel (38), Tre’Quan Smith (31)
49ers Quarterback Controversy?
49ers QBs by Tendency - All 3 QBs have similar time to throw & air yards tendencies, Mullens/Bethard more pressured
> Garoppolo (66 att): 2.71 avg time to throw, 7.3 air yds/att, 26% play action, 21.9% pressure rate
> Mullens (73 att): 2.70 avg time to throw, 6.5 air yds/att, 47% play action, 30.9% pressure rate
> Beathard (37 att): 2.67 avg time to throw, 7.7 air yds/att, 13% play action, 30.0 pressure rate
49ers QBs on Downfield Passes - Garoppolo has struggled the most on 10+ air yard passes among the QB trio
> Garoppolo (10+ AY): 6/19, 120 yards (6.3 YPA), 2 INT (31.6% comp pct, -16.3% CPOE)
> Mullens (10+ AY): 13/21, 238 yards (11.3 YPA), 1 TD, 1 INT (61.9% comp pct, +5.4% CPOE)
> Beathard (10+ AY): 5/11, 71 yards (6.5 YPA), 0 TD, 0 INT (45.5% comp pct, -18.5% CPOE)
49ers QB Passing Efficiency - On a per-dropback basis, Mullens & Garoppolo have been more efficient than Beathard
> EPA per Dropback by QB - Nick Mullens (+0.05), Jimmy Garoppolo (+0.02), C.J. Beathard (-0.11)
> Comp Pct Over Expected by QB - Nick Mullens (+0.5%), C.J. Beathard (-4.5%), Jimmy Garoppolo (-5.4%)
Jared Goff
Low Air Yards - Goff averages the shortest passes by air yards (5.9 air yards/attempt) among qualified QB this season
> Bottom 5 Air Yards/Attempt: J. Goff (5.9), D. Brees (6.1), C. Newton (6.4), N. Mullens (6.5), T. Bridgewater (6.6)
Lowest Rate of Go Route Attempts - Goff targets a go route on 2.6% of attempts, lowest rate among QBs (Avg: 8.6%)
> Only 5% of Goff’s pass attempts are deep (20+ air yards), 5th-lowest rate among qualified QB this season
> Goff has thrown 4 go routes to 4 different receivers - Woods (1 rec), Jefferson (1 rec), Henderson (1 rec), Higbee (0)
> Brandin Cooks accounted for 20 of 71 go route targets between 2018 & 2019 (no other receiver had more than 12)
Quicker Time to Throw - Goff has gotten rid of the ball quicker this season than in previous 3 seasons under McVay
> Goff’s Time to Throw by Season (under McVay) - 2017: 2.93 sec | 2018: 2.95 sec | 2019: 2.80 sec | 2020: 2.75 sec
Improved Efficiency - Goff has been considerably more efficient as a passer this season than in any previous season
> Goff Career Comp Pct Over Expected - 2016-19: 62.4% comp pct (-2.4% CPOE) | 2020: 71.7% comp pct (+2.7% CPOE)
High Play Action Rate - Goff ranks 2nd in play action pct of dropbacks (46.5%) behind only Nick Mullens (46.9%)
> Top 3 Play Action % (2020): Nick Mullens (46.9%), Jared Goff (46.5%), Cam Newton (42.7%) - only 3 QBs over 35%
> Goff Play Action by Season (under McVay) - 2017: 29% (1st) | 2018: 35% (1st) | 2019: 31% (2nd) | 2020: 47% (2nd)
> Top 5 PA % (since 2017): J.Goff (33%), J. Garoppolo (29%), C. Wentz (28%), M. Mariota (28%), P. Mahomes (27%)
Production on Play Action - Goff leads the NFL in several play action production metrics this season (struggled in ‘19)
> 2020: 74 PA dropbacks (1st), 5 TD (T-1st in NFL), 0 INT, 127.7 passer rating (5th), 5.4 air yards/att (4th-lowest among QB)
> 2019: 3 TD, 5 INT, 84.3 passer rating (2nd-lowest in NFL), 8.2 air yards/attempt (1 of 2 QBs with more TD than INT in ‘19)
> 2018: 15 TD (4 more than any other QB), 2 INT, 115.3 passer rating, 10.7 air yards/attempt
Goff Favors Hitch Routes - Goff targets hitch routes on 20% of pass attempts this season (2nd-highest among QB)
> Goff has been efficient targeting hitches (+3.9% CPOE), but forces into tight windows 33% (T-2nd-highest rate in NFL)
Passing Under Pressure - Goff has been one of the worst QBs under pressure since entering the NFL in 2016
> Since 2016 (Career): 44.6% comp pct under pressure (-9.2% Below Expectation, 31st out of 32 qualified QB)
> 2020 (Under Pressure): 13/30, 121 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT - Pressure: 4.0 YPA (28th in NFL) | No Pressure: 10.3 YPA (1st)
Robert Woods & Cooper Kupp vs George Kittle & Deebo Samuel
Crossing Routes - Kittle, Woods, and Kupp have gained more YAC on crossing routes than any other player since 2018
> Most YAC on Crossing Routes (since 2018): Kittle (473), Woods (420), Kupp (358), K. Golladay (311), J. Edelman (299)
> Kittle (+113) and Kupp (+100) also lead the NFL in YAC above expectation on crossing routes (Woods: 422 xYAC)
Cooper Kupp in the Slot - Kupp leads the NFL in receiving yards from the slot since the start of 2019 (1,012)
> Top 5 (Since 2019): C. Kupp (1,012), J. Edelman (1,001), T. Boyd (981), T. Lockett (941), R. Cobb (932)
Woods & Kupp on Crossing Routes - Both Rams receivers rank in the top 10 in crossing routes run since 2019
> Crossing Routes (since 2019): Robert Woods (142, T-2nd) & Cooper Kupp (117, 6th)
> Robert Woods: Target rate on crossing routes has dropped from 39% in 2019 (highest in NFL) to 27% this season
Rams Off Coverage - The Rams have aligned in off coverage on 66% of wide/slot routes faced this season (4th in NFL)
> Rams vs Detached Receivers: 6.6 yards/target (1st in NFL), 3.7 YAC/reception (7th), 16.9% target rate (1st)
> Deebo Samuel has gained 2.4 yards/route vs off coverage in his career (1.6 yards/route with under 5 yards of cushion)
Getting Open on 1st Down - Rams pass catchers average 4.4 yards of separation on 1st down (2nd in NFL)
> Rams receivers average just 2.9 yards of separation on 2nd & 3rd down (T-5th lowest)
Deebo YAC - Samuel has averaged 8.4 YAC per reception in his career (1st among WR since 2019, min. 50 receptions)
> This has been by design, as Samuel has been expected to gain a full yard after the catch more than any other WR
> Top 4 WR Expected YAC/R (since 2019, min. 50 rec): Samuel (7.4), Woods (6.3), Sammy Watkins (5.1), Kupp (5.1)
Weapons in Motion - Woods has 550 shift/motion snaps since 2018 almost 100 more than any other player
> Top 5 Shift/Motion Snaps (since 2018): Woods (550), Kittle (456), J. Edelman (454), J. Smith (418), T. Lockett (407)
> Woods has 890 scrimmage yards when shifted/in motion since 2018 (1st in NFL) | Kittle: 567 (4th) | Kupp: 517 (6th)
Aaron Donald Dominance
Aaron Donald’s Dominance - Led all IDL in pressure rate from 2017-2019, 2nd in 2020 (14.7%, min 50 pass rushes)
> Pressure Rate: 14.6% in 2017 (1st among IDL, min. 200 pass rushes) | 13.9% in 2018 (1st) | 13.5% in 2019 (1st)
> Donald has 299 QB pressures since 2016 (60 more than any other player in that span)
Donald’s Pass Rush Get-Off - 0.84 sec avg pass rush get-off is quickest among IDL since 2016 (min.1,000 pass rushes)
> Top 5 (IDL Get-Off): A. Donald (0.84s), C. Jones (0.87s), M. Jackson (0.88s), C. Campbell (0.88s), K. Short (0.89s)
Rams Run Defense with Donald (Since 2016) - The Rams give up more YPC with Donald on-field (4.5) than off (4.2)
> Since 2016, the Rams give up a slightly higher percentage of 10+ yard runs with Donald (13.0%) than without (10.2%)
49ers Injury-Riddled Defense
(+) Without Dee Ford - (Since 2019) The 49ers generate 31.7% pressure rate with Ford on-field, 24.8% without Ford
> Ford ON (183 pass plays): 31.7% QBP rate, 14.2% sack rate | Ford OFF (492 pass plays): 24.8% QBP rate, 5.8% sack rate
(+) Nick Bosa - Ranks 6th among EDGE rushers in pressure rate (13.1%) since entering NFL in 2019 (min. 300 pass rushes)
> Top 6 EDGE: Garrett (16.2%), Quinn (14.3%), Z. Smith (13.8%), S. Barrett (13.8%), J. Allen (13.6%), N. Bosa (13.1%)
More Blitz Without Bosa - The 49ers have blitzed on 41% of pass plays without Bosa on-field this season (22% with)
Injuries at CB - (Week 5) Without Sherman & Moseley, Dolphins took advantage of backups Brian Allen & Jamar Taylor
> Brian Allen (Week 5 vs MIA): 5 targets, 5 rec allowed, 124 yards, TD on only 13 coverage snaps (38.5% target rate)
> Jamar Taylor (27 of 31 snaps in slot in Week 5) got beat on 70-yard completion to Mike Gesicki as nearest defender
Opponents Avoiding Jason Verrett - Allowed only 24 yards as the nearest defender on 9 targets (4 rec allowed)
> Target Rate by CB: Sherman (8.1%), Verrett (11.5%), Witherspoon (13.0%), K. Williams (20.0%), Moseley (23.9%), Allen (38.5%)
(+) Without Richard Sherman - The 49ers struggle to force tight windows vs wide aligned receivers without Sherman
> 49ers vs Wide (since 2018) - Sherman ON: 21.0% tight window, 55.7% comp pct | OFF: 14.8% TW, 63.5% comp pct
Arik Armstead - Higher percentage of snaps at EDGE in each of last 3 seasons (2018: 56% | 2019: 61% | 2020: 72%)
> Since 2018: More effective as a pass rusher from Interior DL (9.4% pressure rate) vs EDGE (6.3% pressure rate)
