Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 5 SNF PREVIEW: VIKINGS AT SEAHAWKS
Russell Wilson’s MVP Season
Wilson Deep Passing - Only QB with at least 2 deep completions & 1 deep TD in every game this season
> 2020 (Deep): 11 completions (T-1st), 430 yards (1st), 25.3 YPA (1st), 7 TD (1st), 3.67s time to throw (6th-longest)
> Since 2016 (Deep): 141 completions (1st), 4,851 yds (1st), 14.8 YPA (4th), 50 TD (1st), +12.0% CPOE (1st)
Deep Passing Showdown - Wilson has 4,851 deep passing yards since 2016, almost 1,000 more than any other QB
> Kirk Cousins since 2016 (Deep): 109 completions (2nd), 3,868 yds (2nd), 14.4 YPA (6th), 42 TD (2nd), +6.9% CPOE (5th)
Wilson Go Routes - No QB throws a higher pct of passes targeting receivers running Go routes (16%) since 2018
> Top 5 Go Route % (since 2018): Wilson (16%), Fitzpatrick (13%), Roethlisberger (13%), Mayfield (13%), Winston (13%)
Outside the Numbers - Wilson has ranked in the top 3 of throwing outside the numbers in 5 consecutive seasons
> Outside the Numbers Rate: 2016: 51% (3rd) | 2017: 46% (3rd) | 2018: 49% (2nd) | 2019: 50% (1st) | 2020: 49% (2nd)
> Wilson has excelled throwing outside the numbers this season especially, with a league leading 10 TD and 0 INT
> 2020 (Outside Numbers): 79.1% comp pct (1st), 10.6 YPA (3rd), 10 TD (1st), +12.4% comp pct over expected (2nd)
Over Expected - Russell Wilson is 1 of 3 QB to complete more passes than expected in each of the last 5 seasons
> Wilson, Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan are the only QB with a positive Comp Pct Over Expected in all 5 seasons since 2016
> Wilson CPOE Ranks: 2016: +5.0% (6th) | 2017: +1.9% (3rd) | 2018: +4.2% (2nd) | 2019: +4.8% (4th) | 2020: +8.6% (1st)
Extended Dropbacks - Since 2018, no QB has more TD passes on extended dropbacks (4+ seconds) than Wilson (19)
> Top 4 (since 2018): Russell Wilson (19), Deshaun Watson (13), Patrick Mahomes (13), Jameis Winston (12)
> Kirk Cousins (since 2018): Has 10 TD on extended dropbacks (4+ seconds), T-5th in NFL in that span
Improbable Touchdowns - Russell Wilson is responsible for the two most improbable TD passes of the last 3 seasons
> Week 2, 2020 (vs NE): 38-yard TD to David Moore (6.3% Completion Probability)
> Week 5, 2019 (vs LAR): 13-yard TD to Tyler Lockett (6.3% Completion Probability)
Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf Deep - 7 deep receiving TD since entering the league in 2019, most in NFL in that span (20+ air yards)
Metcalf on Go Routes - Targeted on more Go routes over the last two seasons than any player in the NFL (44 targets)
> Career (since 2019): 225 routes (1st), 44 targets (1st), 16 receptions (1st), 505 yards (1st), 4 TD (T-5th)
Wilson-Lockett Deep (20+) Among QB-WR Duos (Since 2016) - 41 receptions (2nd), 1,455 yards (2nd), 14 TD (2nd)
> Wilson-Lockett (Deep): +18.8% Catch Rate Over Expected since 2016 (3rd among duos, min. 25 tgt)
> Wilson-Metcalf (Deep): +21.6% Catch Rate Over Expected since 2019 (1st among duos, min. 25 tgt)
Lockett on Crossing Routes - League-leading 12 receptions on crossing routes through 4 games (15 targets, 1st)
> Lockett has been targeted 15 times on 36 crossing routes (12 rec, 133 yards, TD), none were targeted in a tight window
Kirk Cousins & the Vikings Offense
Less Play Action - With less favorable game scripts and losing OC Kevin Stefanski, the Vikings PA usage has dropped
> Play Action Rate Ranks - MIN (2019): 29% (7th) | MIN (2020): 25% (15th) | CLE (2020): 30% (8th) - Under Stefanski
> Kirk Cousins has 18 TD passes using play action since 2019 (3 more than any other QB), 58.6 total EPA (2nd in NFL)
Losing Stefanski - Cousins has only 1 play action pass from outside the tackle box this season (completed for 26 yds)
> 2019: 22/29, 394 yds, 7 TD (more than twice the yards and TD production of any other QB in a season since 2016)
Back to Basics - Cousins used play action on almost as many dropbacks (13, 52%) in Week 4 as Weeks 1-3 (15, 18%)
> Cousins has gained 113 and 180 pass yards using play action in consecutive weeks (58 yards combined in Weeks 1-2)
> Cousins on Play Action (2020): 17/25, 351 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 15.2 air yards/att (1st), 14.0 YPA (1st), +13.2 CPOE (1st)
Cousins by Time to Throw - Cousins has an average time to throw above 3 seconds for the 2nd consecutive season
> 2019: 3.01s (Longest) | 2020: Cousins (3.03s) only trails Josh Allen (3.04s) and Baker Mayfield (3.22s, under Stefanski)
> Cousins already has thrown as many INT (4) on passes of 2.5+ seconds time to throw this season as he did in all of 2019
Cousins Airing it Out - Cousins leads all qualified QB in air yards/attempt (11.0) and deep pass pct (21%) this season
> Top 5 in Deep Pass Pct: Cousins (21%), Aaron Rodgers (20%), Nick Foles (17%), Lamar Jackson (15%), Tom Brady (14%)
> Cousins Deep (2020): 10/21, 294 yards, 4 TD (trails only Wilson), 2 INT | 44.0% deep comp pct since 2019 (4th in NFL)
Cousins Under Pressure - Cousins has been pressured at one of the top 5 highest rates in 4 of the last 5 seasons
> Pressure Rate by Season: 2016: 31.8% (5th) | 2017: 32.5% (5th) | 2018: 33.4% (4th) | 2019: 30.8% (8th) | 2020: 36.4% (3rd)
> Cousins leads the NFL with 3 INT under pressure this season after being 1 of 3 QB without an INT under pressure in 2019
More Tight Windows - Cousins has thrown into tight windows more often in 2020, struggling without Stefon Diggs
> (2019): 12.9% tight window throw rate (5th-lowest in NFL) | (2020): 21.0% tight window throw rate (5th-highest in NFL)
> Tight Window Throws (Since 2018): +17.1% CPOE targeting Diggs, -0.5% CPOE targeting all other receivers
Tough Throws - Cousins has the 2nd-lowest expected completion percentage in 2020 (58.3%)
Dalvin Cook vs Chris Carson
Yards Over Expected - Chris Carson ranks 5th among RB in Total Rush Yards Over Expected (+273) since 2018
> Top 5: Nick Chubb (+628), Derrick Henry (+482), Saquon Barkley (+411), Christian McCaffrey (+344), Chris Carson (+273)
Rush Success Rate - Carson has exceeded his expected rush yards at the 2nd-highest rate since 2018 (min. 200 carries)
> Pct of Runs Over Expected (since 2018): Hunt (46.4%), Carson (45.3%), Elliott (44.8%), Henry (44.4%), Edwards (42.4%)
Cook Outperforms Expectation - Dalvin Cook has gained +106 rush yards over expected this season (2nd in NFL)
> Cook has gained +8 first downs above expected on runs (1st in NFL)
Cook Outside the Tackles - Cook has 15 rush TD outside the tackles since 2019 (3 more than any other player)
> Outside the Tackles (Since 2019): +239 rush yards over expected in 2019 (3rd), +0.09 EPA/carry (RB Avg: -0.10)
Cook’s Big Runs - Cook and Sony Michel are the only RBs to have 2 runs gain +30 more yards than expected in 2020
> Week 3 vs TEN (Q1 2:51): 39-yard TD run (+35 over expected), just a 0.2% TD probability, 9.1% first down probability
> Week 3 vs TEN (Q3 11:42): 39-yard run (+35 over expected), 77.5% first down probability (3rd & 1)
Replacing Stefon Diggs
Thielen Out Wide - Thielen’s usage in the slot has declined in each of the last 3 seasons (18% slot this season)
> Slot Alignment Pct - 2018: 50% slot, 44% wide | 2019: 28% slot, 67% wide | 2020: 18% slot, 78% wide
> 2020: Thielen has been targeted on 8 of 20 slot routes (40% target rate), 23 of 85 wide routes (27% target rate)
Thielen on Out-Breaking Routes - 2nd in receiving yards on out-breaking routes since 2018 (645), Keenan Allen (662)
> Flat/Out/Corner (Since 2018): 51 rec (6th), 645 yards (2nd), 5 TD (T-6th), +18.8% CROE (1st among WR, min. 25 targets)
Justin Jefferson Exceeds Expectations - Leads the NFL in Total Yards Over Expected this season (+165)
> Total Yards Over Expected combines YAC, completion probability and rushing yards over expected into a single metric
> Top 5: Justin Jefferson (+165), Alvin Kamara (+148), DK Metcalf (+140), George Kittle (+133), Raheem Mostert (+132)
Harrison Smith vs Jamal Adams
By Alignment - Harrison Smith aligns more at deep safety or slot CB compared to Jamal Adams (more in the box)
> Harrison Smith (2020): 55% Deep Safety | 29% Box Safety | 15% Slot CB | 1% Outside CB
> Jamal Adams (2020): 43% Box Safety | 36% Deep Safety | 19% Slot CB | 3% Outside CB
> Adams is playing more in the slot with the Seahawks (19% slot CB) than with the Jets in 2019 (10% slot CB)
Harrison Smith in Coverage (Since 2017) - 40.2 passer rating allowed as nearest defender, 3rd among DS (min. 20 tgt)
> Top 5 (since 2017): J. Thornhill (31.7), A. Harris (35.6), H. Smith (40.2), R. McLeod (43.2), E. Thomas (46.1)
> Since 2017: Harrison Smith has allowed only 2 TD as nearest defender, 12 INT (-7.1% CPOE allowed)
> Since 2017: 4.1 yards/target allowed vs slot, 6.9 yards/target allowed from all other alignments
Jamal Adams Blitzing - Leads all DBs in blitzes (32) and QB pressures (8) this season (23.2% blitz rate)
> Top 5 Pressures (2020): J. Adams (8), J. Mills (5), J. Whitehead (5), M. Jenkins (5), M. Hilton (5)
> Top 5 Blitzes (2020): J. Adams (32), C. Clark (31), M. Jenkins (25), J. Poyer (21), M. Hilton (20)
> Since 2017: Adams has 16 more pressures (46), 59 more blitzes (287), and 5.5 sacks (14) more than any other DB
Adams in Coverage - QBs have had success when targeting Adams as nearest defender (13 tgt, 10 rec, 193 yards)
> Adams as Nearest Defender (2020): 13 tgt, 10 rec, 193 yards (14.8 YPA), +14.3% CPOE allowed (2019: -17.8% CPOE)
> Opposing QBs are 7/8 for 171 yards on passes of 10+ air yards with Adams as the nearest defender this season
> Both of Adams’ career interceptions were under 10 air yards (0 INT on 66 targets of 10+ air yards as nearest defender)
The Vikings Struggling Pass Rush
Lack of Pass Rush - The Vikings rank 31st in pressure rate this season (18.5%), declining over last five seasons
> Pressure Rate - 2016: 32.1% (3rd) | 2017: 27.9% (14th) | 2018: 29.3% (4th) | 2019: 24.8% (21st) | 2020: 18.5% (31st)
> Only two defenders have more than 5 pressures (Ngakoue 8, Odenigbo 8), no defender averages more than 2 per game
Vikings Without Danielle Hunter (Since 2019) - 25.8% team pressure rate with Hunter on-field (17.7% without Hunter)
> 4th Qtr (since 2019) - Hunter ON-Field: 30.9% pressure rate, 10.8% sack rate | OFF: 13.8% pressure rate, 4.6% sack rate
> Hunter (since 2016): 212 QB pressures, 6th in NFL (behind Donald 292, Miller 239, Mack 230, Jones 224, Ngakoue 219)
Ngakoue Since Trade - Has not had the same pass rush success in his first 4 games with the Vikings (7.3% QBP rate)
> Pressure Rate - 2016-2019 (w/JAX): 12.5% pressure rate | 2020 (w/MIN): 7.3 pressure rate (8 QBP on 109 pass rushes)
> Since 2016: 219 QB pressures, 5th in NFL (behind Donald 292, Miller 239, Mack 230, Jones 224)
