Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 2 SNF PREVIEW: PATRIOTS AT SEAHAWKS
QB Cam Newton vs Seahawks Pass Defense
Cam Newton Play Action - Newton used play action on 10 of 21 dropbacks in Week 1 (48%, highest in NFL)
> Play Action: 8/9, 99 yards (11.0 YPA), 8.2 air yards/att | No Play Action: 7/10, 56 yards (5.6 YPA), 2.4 air yards/att
> Newton aligned under center on 70% of PA dropbacks | Newton (2018): 33% of PA dropbacks under center (4th-lowest)
> Tom Brady aligned under center on 69% of PA dropbacks from 2016-19 (NFL Avg: 63%), 26% PA rate (3rd-highest)
Quick Trigger Beat the Blitz - Newton was decisive getting rid of the ball quickly in Week 1 to beat the blitz
> Newton (Week 1): 2.36 seconds time to throw (5th-quickest in NFL), blitzed on 9 of 20 dropbacks (43%, 5th in NFL)
> Newton had his 4th-quickest time to throw in a game and 4th-lowest tight window throw pct (11%) since 2016
In-Breaking Routes - Newton targeted in-breaking routes on 58% of his attempts in Week 1 (1st in NFL)
> Russell Wilson (54%) was the only other QB in Week 1 to target in-breaking routes on over half of his attempts
> Newton Route Target Distribution: Crosses (32%, 2nd in NFL), Slants (21%, 1st in NFL)
No Pistol in Week 1 - In his first game with the Patriots, Cam Newton did not align in pistol on any offensive play
> Pistol Formation Rate (2016-19, min. 1500 QB snaps): Brady: 1% (10th-lowest rate), 34 plays | Newton 5% (3rd-highest)
2-Back Formations - From 2016-2019, Newton aligned in 2-Back formations on 645 snaps (3rd-most in NFL)
> Highest 2-Back Formation % (min 1500 snaps): Garoppolo (37%), Brady (27%), Taylor (25%), Newton (22%)
> Week 1, 2020: The Patriots aligned in 2-Back formations on 15 of 63 plays (24%, 5th-highest rate in NFL)
Motion - Newton had motion used on 32% of his snaps since 2018 (9th-highest rate among 33 QB with 800+ snaps)
> The Patriots used motion on 893 snaps since 2018 with Tom Brady as QB (more than 200 than any other QB) | 42% (3rd)
> The Panthers gained 5.7 YPC using motion with Newton at QB since 2018 (2nd in NFL, min. 100 rushes with motion)
> Week 1, 2020: The Patriots gained 6.2 YPC using motion | Passes (Motion): 7.8 YPP | Passes (No Motion): 4.4 YPP
Pocket Passer - Newton was 1 of 3 QBs to throw every pass inside the tackle box in Week 1 (Brady, Rivers)
> Top 4 Inside Tackle Box % (Since 2016): Ben Roethlisberger (94%), Philip Rivers (94%), Brady (93%), Newton (92%)
Patriots Receiving vs Seahawks Coverage
James White - Led all RBs with 183 air yards on targets last season (91 air yards came aligned wide)
> Week 1 vs MIA: Ran 5 routes out of the backfield (3 targets, 3 rec, 30 yards), 2 routes aligned slot (Flat) or wide (Go)
Julian Edelman in the Slot - Aligned in the slot on a higher rate of plays in Week 1 vs MIA (75%), than in 2019 (58%)
> 2019: 739 rec yards aligned in the slot (2nd in NFL) | Since 2016: 2,005 rec yards in the slot (7th in NFL in that span)
Edelman on Out Routes - Since the start of 2018, Edelman ranks 5th in the NFL in targets on “out” routes (59)
> Top 5 Out Route Targets (2018-19): D. Adams (65), D. Hopkins, J. Jones, M. Thomas (60), J. Edelman (59)
> Edelman Ranks (Since 2018): 160 routes (3rd), 59 targets (5th), 43 receptions (4th), 376 yards (9th), 2 TD (T-10th)
Edelman in Week 1 - IN-breaking routes on 12 of 18 routes (67%) in Week 1 w/Newton (only 44% in 2019 w/Brady)
> Edelman ran 5 crossing routes in Week 1 (out of 18 total routes), was targeted 4 times, 3 receptions, 42 yards
> Edelman Top 3 Routes - 2020: Cross (28%), Slant (22%), Hitch, In, Out (11%) | 2019: Cross (20%), Hitch (18%), Out (15%)
Swiss Army Knife - Jamal Adams alignment all over the field in Week 1, continuing his versatile usage he had with NYJ
> Adams was 1 of 7 DB in Week 1 to align as a LOS Defender, box safety, slot CB, and deep safety on 10%+ of snaps
Patriots OL vs Seahawks Pass Rush
Seahawks Pass Rush - 32.1% pressure rate (18 team pressures) vs ATL in Week 1 (SEA in 2019: 22.0%, 31st in NFL)
> (3) different Seahawks finished the game with 4+ pressures: Bruce Irvin 5, Jarran Reed 5, Jamal Adams 4
> (4) different Seahawks played 10+ snaps at EDGE: Benson Mayowa 67, Bruce Irvin 51, Damontre Moore 19, L.J. Collier 11
Blitzing Adams - Pete Carroll utilized Adams pass rushing ability in his debut as a Seahawk (4 QBP, sack on 10 blitzes)
> Adams’ 10 blitzes was the most by any SEA DB in a game in the past 5 seasons (Delano Hill: 7 blitzes, Week 17, 2018)
> Adams’ 4 pressures in Week 1 was as many as the leading Seahawks DB in the entire 2019 season (Bradley McDougald)
> Adams accounts for 3 of the 7 games by a DB with 4+ pressures since 2016 (Week 1, 2020; Weeks 11 & 12, 2019)
Best Blitzing DB - Adams (2019): 17 pressures (1st among DB), 17.8% pressure rate (1st in NFL, min. 75 pass rushes)
> Adams has 15 more pressures (42), 55 more blitzes (265), and 4.5 sacks (13) more than any other DB since 2017
Patriots Running Game vs Seahawks Run Defense
RB Committee Approach in Week 1 - Snap Counts: James White 19 (30%), Rex Burkhead (30%), Sony Michel 18 (29%)
> FB Jakob Johnson played more snaps (21) than any individual back, rookie RB J.J. Taylor played 9 snaps (14%)
> James White: 11 of 19 snaps were on run plays (58%) in Week 1 vs MIA (only 18% of snaps were run plays in 2019)
> Sony Michel: 15 of 18 snaps came on 1st down or 3rd & short (1-2 yds), including lone Patriots goal line play (inside 3)
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
New Look Offense - The Patriots used run action (play action or runs) on 83% of plays in Week 1 (NFL Avg: 57%)
> This was the 5th-highest rate of any team in a game since 2019 and the highest rate by the Patriots in the past 5 seasons
> The Patriots used run action on 55% of plays in 2019 (14th-highest in NFL), Ravens led NFL (70%)
Motion Success - In Week 1, the Patriots used motion on 46% of plays (3rd in NFL) and excelled when using motion
> Motion: 7.0 yards per play | No Motion: 4.6 yards per play (+2.4 differential, 3rd-largest in NFL)
> The Patriots used motion on 67% of pass plays (1st in NFL), 36% of run plays (11th in NFL)
QB Russell Wilson vs Patriots Defense
Wilson’s Fantastic Week 1 - Russell Wilson started out his season with a MVP performance in Week 1
> Wilson had the 5th-highest comp pct above expectation (+13.7%) and the 2nd-most total EPA gained (+18.2)
Letting Russ Cook? - The Seahawks rolled out a pass-heavy game plan with the 6th-highest pass rate of Week 1 (65%)
> However, Wilson’s passes were designed to be safe, with a 74.9% xComp (Wilson’s highest in a game in past 5 seasons)
> Wilson threw short passes, screens, and had the most attempts (35) without a tight window throw in the past 5 seasons
Beating Expectations - Wilson is 1 of 3 QBs to complete more passes than expected in each of the last 5 seasons
> Other QBs with a positive CPOE in five straight seasons: Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan
Best Deep Ball? - Wilson has the most completions (130), TD (43), and yards (4,421) on deep passes since 2016
> In Week 1, Wilson only threw 2 deep passes: 2/2, 75 yards, TD (including D.K. Metcalf’s 38-yard TD on 4th & 5)
> NE Defense vs Deep Passes (Since 2019): 20.5 comp pct allowed (2nd), 1.5 yds target separation (1st), 7 INT (1st)
Seahawks Receivers vs Patriots Secondary
DK Metcalf Route Tree - Metcalf ran a more diverse route tree in Week 1, running 6 different routes at a 10%+ rate
> According to our route versatility metric, D.K. Metcalf ran the 7th-least diverse route tree in 2019 (min. 300 routes)
> 2019: Go Routes (38%, 2nd among WR, min. 300 routes), Hitch (16%), Slant (10%), Cross (9%), Post (7%), Corner (7%)
> Week 1: Go Routes (32%), Cross (21%), Slant (13%), Hitch (11%), In (11%), Post (11%)
Tyler Lockett - Highest Catch Rate Over Expectation (+19.6%) on deep targets since 2016 (min. 30 deep tgts)
> Wilson-Lockett Deep (since 2016): 40 receptions (2nd), 1,412 yards (2nd), 13 TD (2nd), +19.6% CPOE (1st)
Stephon Gilmore Shadowing - Gilmore aligned across a WR on 75%+ of their routes in 11 games in 2019 (Most in NFL)
> John Brown (x2), A. Cooper, D. Hopkins, D. Parker, M. Brown, O Beckham, R. Anderson, S. Watkins, T. McLaurin, T. Boyd
> Next closest DB: Darius Slay (6 games) | Expect Gilmore to align across from D.K. Metcalf based on body size
> Week 1, 2020: Gilmore aligned across from Preston Williams on 18 of 30 routes (60%) - 5 targets, 2 rec, 41 yards, INT
Best CB Duo in NFL? - Stephon Gilmore & J.C Jackson ranked top 3 across coverage* metrics since 2019 (min. 50 tgts)
> Gilmore Coverage Ranks: 48.1% comp pct (4th), 5.7 yards/target (5th), 37.7 passer rating (2nd), 20.2% hawk rate (6th)
> Jackson Coverage Ranks: 43.8% comp pct (1st), 4.3 yards/target (1st), 17.3 passer rating (1st), 56% press rate (3rd)
> Top 5 Pass Rating Allowed (since 2019): Jackson (17.3), Gilmore (37.7), T. White (40.2), Simmons (44.4), Mathieu (58.4)
Patriots Pass Rush vs Seahawks OL
Limited Pass Rush in Week 1 - The Patriots generated only 6 pressures (19.4% pressure rate) against Ryan Fitzpatrick
> 2019: The Patriots ranked 5th in pressure rate (29.9%) and blitzed at the 6th-highest rate (35.7%) | Week 1: 35.5% blitz
Seahawks Running Game vs Patriots Run Defense
Rush Yards Over Expected - Chris Carson ranked 5th in Total Rush Yards Over Expected (+145) in 2019
> Top 5 (2019): Derrick Henry (+314), Nick Chubb (+271), Christian McCaffrey (+211), Josh Jacobs (+195), Carson (+145)
> Carlos Hyde (2019 w/HOU): Ranked 8th in Total Rush Yards Over Expected (+116) last season with the Texans
> Both RBs were below expectation in Week 1 - Carson: 6 att, 21 yards (-7 Below Exp), Hyde: 7 att, 23 yards (-9 Below Exp)
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Seahawks Motion-Heavy - In Week 1, the Seahawks used motion on 55% of plays (1st in NFL), 6.9 YPP using motion
> Week 1 at ATL: 6.3 YPC on 12 rushes using motion, 1.1 YPC on 8 rushes without motion (+5.1, largest difference)
> 2019: Used motion on 33% of plays in 2019, 9th-highest rate in the NFL
Patriots DB-Heavy - The Patriots used 6+ DB on 72% of plays in Week 1 (42 of 58), 0 plays in 4 DB, 3 plays in 3 DB
> 2019: 1 of 4 defenses to use 6+ DB personnel on over 40% of plays (GB 52%, BAL 43%, LAR 41%, NE 41%)
> Adrian Phillips (Week 1): Listed as a safety but played 37 of 42 snaps in the box, making “Dime” look more like “Nickel”
Devin McCourty at Free Safety - Lined up as a deep safety on 49 of 57 plays in Week 1 (86%), only 2 snaps in the slot
> (3) other Patriots played 10+ snaps at deep safety: Jonathan Jones 11, Jason McCourty 11, Terrence Brooks 10
DL Rotation in Week 1 - No Patriots defensive lineman played more than 70% of snaps (7 DL played over 30% of snaps)
> DL Snap Counts: Simon (40), Winovich (39), Butler (31), Guy (22), Wise (22), Cowart (20), Rivers (19), X. Williams (8)
