Next Gen Stats Preview
NEXT GEN STATS WEEK 3 SNF PREVIEW: PACKERS AT SAINTS
Aaron Rodgers vs Drew Brees
Differences Between Rodgers & Brees - Time to throw, pass depth and target location (outside vs inside the numbers)
> Rodgers (since 2016): 2.87 avg time to throw (28th), 8.8 air yds/att (7th), 52% of passes outside the numbers (1st)
> Brees (since 2016): 2.53 avg time to throw (2nd), 6.9 air yds/att (31st), 38% of passes outside the numbers (25th)
Where Rodgers Has Outperformed Expectations - 10+ air yards, tight window throws and passing against 4-man rush
> CPOE by Situation (QB Ranks) - 10+ Air Yds (+16.8%, 5th) | Tight Windows (+28.9%, 3rd) | vs. 4-man Rush (+16.4%, 2nd)
Low Pressure Against - Rodgers has been pressured on only 8 of 75 dropbacks (10.7%, lowest among qualified QB)
> 2019: Rodgers was pressured on 18.5% of dropbacks, 3rd-lowest in NFL
> Rodgers was 1 of 3 qualified QB to not throw an INT when under pressure in 2019 (Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr)
> Has not thrown an INT when under pressure since Week 15, 2017 vs CAR
Rodgers Deep - Attempted a deep pass (20+ air yards) on 21.6% of attempts, highest rate in NFL (2019: 14.8%, 4th)
> 2020 (Deep): 7/16 (43.8% comp pct), 257 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 130.2 passer rating (+15.9% CPOE)
> 2019 (Deep): 26/84 (31.0% comp pct), 866 yards, 10 TD, 1 INT, 105.5 passer rating (-1.3% CPOE)
Extending Plays - Rodgers has 2 TD where time to throw is 4+ seconds this season (only 6 such TD from 2017-19)
> Both extended play TDs were in Week 1 - 24-yard TD to D. Adams (5.54 sec) & 4-yard TD to A. Lazard (5.24 sec)
> 2020 (4+ sec): 5/9, 54 yards, 2 TD (T-2nd in NFL), 0 INT, 113.0 passer rating (5th), +16.0% CPOE (4th)
> In 2016, Rodgers threw 16 TD when time to throw 4+ seconds, only 6 TD over the last three seasons (2017-2019)
More Attempts from Pocket - Rodgers has thrown from inside the tackle box on 89% of attempts (up from 84% in 2019)
> Rodgers by Throw Location (since 2018) - Inside Tackle Box: 66.6% comp pct | Outside Tackle Box: 40.2% comp pct
Rodgers in Rhythm - Rodgers is throwing “in rhythm” (2.5 - 4 seconds time to throw) more often and efficiently in 2020
> Rodgers (2017-19): 35.8% rate (Last), 9.0 YPA (10th), 12.0 air yards/att (4th), +0.19 EPA/dropback (7th), +0.6% CPOE
> Rodgers (2020): 43.2% rate (22nd), 11.6 YPA (4th), 14.6 air yards/att (2nd), +0.92 EPA/dropback (1st), +7.1% CPOE
Drew Brees’ Tendencies - Brees gets rid of the ball quickly, minimizing pressure, and throws short passes
> Brees Ranks (since 2019): 2.59 seconds TTT (3rd-quickest) | 18.5% QBP % (4th-lowest) | 6.4 air yards/att (2nd-lowest)
> Brees’ easy tendencies are reflected in his 68.8% Expected Completion Percentage since 2019, highest in NFL
Brees by Air Yards - Since 2016, Brees has not finished higher than 28th in air yards/attempt among qualified QB
> Air Yards/Att (Brees Ranks) - 2016: 7.6 (28th) | 2017: 6.3 (Last) | 2018: 7.1 (29th) | 2019: 6.7 (30th) | 2020: 5.0 (Last)
Brees Below Expectation - Brees ranks 3rd-lowest among qualified QB in Comp Pct Over Expected this season (-8.4%)
> Brees has ranked in the top 2 in CPOE in each of the last 3 seasons, currently ranks 32nd out of 34 QBs in 2020
Struggling in Intermediate - Brees has not been as effective when targeting receivers between 10 & 19 air yards
> 2020: 42.9% comp pct, 8.9 yards/attempt, 0 TD, 1 INT, 45.2 passer rating
> 2019: 66.3% comp pct, 12.3 yards/attempt, 12 TD, 2 INT, 138.3 passer rating (1st in NFL)
Brees Low Deep Rate - Since the start of 2019, Brees throws deep on 6.3% of pass attempts (lowest among QB)
> Thrown fewer deep attempts in each of last four seasons - 2016: 64 att | 2017: 50 att | 2018: 45 att | 2019: 26 att
> 2020: 2 deep attempts through two games (1 completion), both deep passes have targeted Jared Cook
Davante Adams vs Marshon Lattimore
Limited History - Lattimore shadowed Adams in their one career match up (Week 7, 2017) and shut Adams down
> Lattimore aligned across from Adams on 22 of 25 routes (88%), allowed 0 receptions on 2 targets as nearest defender
> Adams caught 2 of his other 3 targets for 12 yards, but it’s important to note Brett Hundley was QB for an injured Rodgers
Lattimore’s Strong Start - Lined up across from Mike Evans on 78% of routes, allowed 0 rec as nearest DEF (2 targets)
> Lattimore aligned across from Mike Evans on 29 of his 37 routes (78%), 52% in press coverage
> Lattimore didn’t shadow any receiver in Week 2 vs LV, but allowed 3 rec, 46 yards on 3 targets as nearest defender
Adams on Out Routes - Averages the most separation on OUT routes (3.6 yards) among wide receivers since 2019
> Top 5 WR Separation (min. 15 out routes): D. Adams (3.6) , T. Lockett (3.5), T. Hill (3.4), A. Cooper (3.4), W. Fuller (3.4)
Ironman Malcolm Jenkins
Ironman Jenkins - Malcolm Jenkins has played 2,494 consecutive defensive snaps (longest active streak, incl. playoffs)
> Jenkins last snap missed came in Week 17, 2017, when the Eagles rested their starters vs the Cowboys
> Top 5 Active Streaks: Jenkins (2,494), J. Simmons (2,166), J. Haden/M. Fitzpatrick (496), L. David/D. White (471)
Jenkins by Target Position - Jenkins has allowed a comp pct below expected to each skill position since 2016
> Jenkins vs RB: 35 rec/48 tgts, 235 yds, TD (4.9 yds/tgt, 72.9% comp pct, 90.2 passer rating, -4.3% CPOE)
> Jenkins vs TE: 46 rec/76 tgts, 502 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT (6.6 yds/tgt, 60.5% comp pct, 82.2 passer rating, -1.4% CPOE)
> Jenkins vs WR: 79 rec/121 tgts, 899 yds, 6 TD, 4 INT (7.4 yds/tgt, 65.3% comp pct, 90.2 passer rating, -2.0% CPOE)
Jenkins Coverage - Jenkins allowed -11.3% catch rate above expected in coverage since 2019 (3rd in NFL, min. 50 tgts)
Evolved Role - Jenkins has doubled his LOS alignment rate and blitz rate with the Saints compared to the Eagles
> PHI (2016-19): blitzed on 10% of pass snaps, 10.3% pressure rate, 2.2% sack rate
> NO (2020): blitzed on 26% of pass snaps (2nd among DB, min. 50 snaps), 14.3% pressure rate, 4.8% sack rate
> Jenkins has aligned on the LOS on 33% of snaps with the Saints (Highest among DB, min. 50 snaps) | PHI: 14%
Aaron Jones vs Alvin Kamara
Aaron Jones - Ranks 5th in rushing yards over expected (+63) among RB this season (234 yards, 171 expected yards)
> Top 5 (2020): Kareem Hunt (+72), Raheem Mostert (+71), Jerick McKinnon (+64), Nick Chubb (+64), Aaron Jones (+63)
Jones Success Inside Tackles - +129 rushing yards over expected on inside runs since 2019, 2nd in NFL
> Top 5 (since 2019): C. McCaffrey (+162), A. Jones (+129), C. Hyde (+125), A. Peterson (+114), S. Barkley (+111)
Jones & Kamara in Red Zone - Both RB rank in the top 5 in rush pct over expected in the red zone since 2019 (min. 10 att)
> Top 5 (since 2019): A. Jones (57.5%) E. Elliott (55.6%), M. Ingram (53.7%), D. Montgomery (51.5%), A. Kamara (51.4%)
Jones and Kamara Target Hogs - Jones and Alvin Kamara have been targeted at 2 of the top 3 rates this season
> Top 3 in Target % per Route (min. 25 routes): Jones (48.3%), Darren Waller (40.7%), Kamara (39.5%)
Saints Offense without Michael Thomas
Without Michael Thomas - Thomas targeted on 32% of routes in 2019 (highest among WR, min. 300 routes)
> Since 2016: Drew Brees holds onto the ball longer (2.70 sec) with Thomas off the field, compared to on-field (2.51 sec)
> Since 2018: Drew Brees has thrown only 62 regular season passes (65 dropbacks) without Michael Thomas on the field
Thomas on Slants - A considerable amount of Thomas' production in 2019 in the short area came on slant routes
> NFL Ranks in 2019 (Slant Routes): 29 receptions (1st), 299 yards (1st), 3 TD (T-1st), 162 yards after catch (1st)
Getting Kamara Involved - Kamara has run 17 screen routes this season, almost 2x as many as any other player
> Kamara ran just 28 screen routes in 2019 total (8% of routes) | 2020: 6 rec, 42 yards, TD on screens (8 targets)
Tre’Quan Smith - Smith accounted for 35% of the Saints air yards in Week 2 without Michael Thomas (J. Cook: 29%)
Deonte Harris Speed - Harris has reached 20+ MPH on 4 of 82 touches (incl. special teams) in his career (4.9%)
> Harris: 6th in 20+ MPH touch rate since 2019 (min. 75 snaps), behind T. Hill, C. Patterson, S.Diggs, M. Hardman, S. Sims
Taysom Hill’s Versatility - Hill has 30+ snaps at every skill position alignment in his career, aligning tight the most
> Snaps by Alignment (Career) - 35 backfield (8%), 98 slot (22%), 65 wide (15%), 143 tight (33%), 98 QB (22%)
Packers Pass Rush vs Saints OL
Sacks vs Pressures - The Packers have a higher sack rate this season than in 2019 despite a drop in pressure rate
> 2019: 7.0% sack rate (13th in NFL), 33.0% pressure rate (1st) | 2020: 9.4% sack rate (5th), 23.4% pressure rate (15th)
> 1 of 2 teams (other: LAC) to blitz at a sub-20% rate in each of the past 2 seasons | 2019: 19.4% (30th), 2020: 19.3% (30th)
Rashan Gary - The Packers’ 2019 1st round pick is having a breakout sophomore season after a middling rookie year
> Gary (2019): 9.8% pressure rate (67th among 235 defenders with 125+ pass rushes), played 24% of defensive snaps
> Gary (2020): 22.5% pressure rate (3rd among 145 defenders with 30+ pass rushes), played 58% of defensive snaps
> Gary has played in 50%+ of snaps in both games this year, after not exceeding 40% in any game his rookie season
Smith Squared - The Packers pass rush has dominated when Za’Darius and Preston Smith align on the same side
> Same Side (Since 2019): 15 sacks, 42 pressures on 84 pass rushes (50.0% QBP %, 17.9% sack rate)
> Different Side (Since 2019): 20 sacks, 96 pressures on 282 pass rushes (34.0% QBP %, 7.1% sack rate)
> The Smiths have aligned on the same side (17) on almost as many pass rushes as opposite sides (18) this season
Za’Darius Smith - Smith is aligning as an interior DL more often in 2020 (41%, 24% in 2019), driven by early down usage
> Smith is aligning as an interior DL more often this season (41%, 24% in 2019), driven by heavier usage on early downs
> Interior DL Alignment Rate by Down: 1D (17%), 2D (21%), 3D (39%) in 2019 | 1D (44%), 2D (42%), 3D (39%) in 2020
> Smith led the NFL with a 14.8% pressure rate in 2019 (min. 300 pass rushes) | 7.1% in 2020 (all 4 QBP aligned as iDL)
Za’Darius on the Interior - Smith has been most effective as a pass rusher aligned as an interior DL in past 2 seasons
> Pressure Rate by Alignment (Since 2019): 18.4% as Interior DL, 12.1% as EDGE
> 2019 (min. 100 iDL pass rushes): 0.86 sec average pass rush get-off (2nd in NFL), 19.4% QBP % (only player over 15%)
